GoldRush
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If one believes the rankings are skewed to the SEC, that would support that hypothesis.
SEC Bias: This is a reminder that LSU these last 5 years is the same as Minnesota, just with a lot more AP votes and more FCS wins.
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I wouldn't argue that the SEC gets the benefit of the doubt when it comes to rankings but outside of fan bases of Minnesota, Wisconsin, & Iowa you'd have a difficult finding anyone who thinks the old B1G West and old SEC West were even in the same ball park. The argument is just absurd. It's like listening to people try to say the old B1G West & East were in the same ball park.
GoldRush
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The old west and east actually had very similar head to head records against each other. A lot closer than you'd think. The old east was extremely top heavy with OSU as a juggernaut and PSU and Michigan having some great years too. But the old east bottom was absolute trash.
Bob_Loblaw
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This is 100% true. There was complete parity between the East and West. The only outlier was Ohio State.
The rest of the East was a combined 80-84 against the Big 10 West during that time (that's counting MSU's vacated wins as wins).
There was not a disparity between East and West, the disparity was between Ohio State and everyone else.
Bob_Loblaw
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Outside of Ohio State, the teams in the East lost more games against the West than they won.
The old west was middle heavy.
With the new teams if you went west and east it would be interesting.
Would be 9-9
Would assume Purdue and northwestern move east.
Oregon 8-1
USC 7-2
Iowa 6-3
Illinois 5-4
Minnesota 5-4
Washington 5-4
Nebraska 4-5
UCLA 3-6
Wisconsin 2-7
45-36
Indiana 9-0
Ohio State 9-0
Michigan 7-2
Northwestern 4-5
Penn state 3-6
Rutgers 2-7
Michigan state 1-8
Maryland 1-8
Purdue 0-9
36-45
But since Ohio state and Indiana were in the east everyone would say the east is better.
The middle and the bottom matter two if you’re talking about balance. iMo.
The old west was slightly worse than the east. But if you only look at the top it was way worse. Especially once Wisconsin self imploded their program .
Obviously the standings would be different because the schedules would be.
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If you would’ve flipped Ohio State and Purdue into opposite divisions. The west would’ve blown the east away in both wins and conference titles
If you put Ohio state and the bottom 6 in one division and 2-8 in the other. The Ohio state division would win more conference titles.
MNfootballfan
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The whole point of the SEC being overrated is the rankings.
Mississippi State beat Illinois 19-10 in 2022.
- Illinois finished the Big Ten 5-4
Texas A&M didn't play a Big Ten Team in 2021.
- Without doing a deep dive, they beat Colorado 10-7. Colorado finished 4-8 and lost to Minnesota 30-0
Arkansas beat Penn State 24-10 in 2021.
- Penn State finished with a 4-5 record in the Big Ten.
Fully acknowledge that all of that means absolutely nothing, but the point of SEC being ranked post season is just a setup for their inflated preseason rankings.
It’s pretty funny how circular the logic is.
People see every SEC west team with a record similar to MN but say “but they played a tougher schedule”
And it’s like…no, I just showed you they essentially played 5 teams that were Minnesota or worse level teams most years + 4 out of conference schools.
Yes they played bama.
What is more likely to give a win: playing bama and grambling or playing Illinois and northwestern?
Illinois and northwestern you’re more likely to win 2
Grambling and bama you’re more likely to win 1
Illinois and northwestern you’re more likely to lose 2
Check out head to head records from 2014-2023 of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, & Michigan State vs any team in the old west division.
I'm pretty sure only Wisconsin has a winning record vs any of those teams during that time span.
(EDIT- I was incorrect on this statement. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois all had 2-1 records vs MSU during the East/West era).
The bottom 3 of the East was awful. No argument there but even Michigan State would have been the best team in the west during 2 of those seasons. 2015 & 2021 and possibly 2017.
It wasn't just Ohio State. That is a narrative that fans want to believe because the bottom 3 crap teams of the West were better than the bottom 3 crap teams of the East. But the top 4 in each division was no contest.
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Scottsdale Gopher
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All of this would be a great way to demonstrate priors in a statistics 101 class. Part of the available information to AP voters during the preseason is recruiting rankings and track record of draft picks. As has been demonstrated earlier in the thread, LSU consistently has higher rated recruiting classes and more draft picks than the Gophers. I can understand why that would lead to LSU garnering preseason votes.
But the massive delta between the number of weeks in the rankings for LSU and Minnesota shows how much bias voters have for their own priors. They believe LSU *should* be better than their record and are slow to release that belief. I'm not of the opinion that Minnesota has been LSU's equal over the referenced period of time, but they have certainly been closer to LSU's level than the weeks in the rankings suggest.
But the massive delta between the number of weeks in the rankings for LSU and Minnesota shows how much bias voters have for their own priors. They believe LSU *should* be better than their record and are slow to release that belief. I'm not of the opinion that Minnesota has been LSU's equal over the referenced period of time, but they have certainly been closer to LSU's level than the weeks in the rankings suggest.
Yup. Yet people still argue LSU is elite
Shouldn’t them firing coaches tell you they haven’t been?
No they aren’t.
Not all losses created equal either.
Very SEC of you to prop up the wins while ignoring the losses.
What is more impressive;
Going 1-1 against two 7-5 teams
Or beating a 10-2 team while losing to a 4-8 team?
Or are both probably pretty average if they both finish 7-5?
For sure.
Variance over 5 seasons accounts for a lot of it.
A team that’s 10-2 twice and 4-8 twice has the same record as a team that’s 7-5 4 times but will probably be ranked a lot during those 2 10-2 seasons
Recruiting rankings and nfl talent are kind of a dumb was to rank teams in football.
Kris Humphries is probably the best nba gopher and he played on the worst gopher team. But that’s all they have to go by so hard to blame them.
Bob_Loblaw
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It's not a narrative. The East, besides Ohio State, had a losing record against the West. It's not a narrative it's the actual results on the field. Right now, you're using the results against Ohio State (who everyone struggled against), to prop up the record of the East vs. West.
Remove Ohio State from the analysis completely and re-do what you're saying.
Wisconsin was 5-5 against MSU, Michigan and Penn State during thar run.
Iowa was 6-7 against those three teams.
The best teams were all, clearly, in the same ball park as Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State. The worst teams were all clearly better than the worst in the East. The West is just slightly different from the East in that it fluctuated. We had years where NW, Purdue, MN, Illinois, Nebraska were all the second/third best teams.
The outlier was Ohio State. You even kind of admit that in your post because you keep factoring them into your analysis - (records against East top 4).
- Ohio State had about the same winning percentage against the East as they did against the West.
- The games between East and West (non-Ohio State) were a coin toss - slightly favoring the West.
- The games between East best (other than Ohio State) vs. West best were a coin toss - slightly favoring the East.
I just don't see how anyone could come to any other conclusion than that the divisions were pretty similar - other than Ohio State.
They’ve drank James franklins kool aid
Strangely enough, James Franklin getting free wins vs 3 non conference + Maryland + Rutgers + Indiana as a baseline means that if Penn state went 3-2 vs;
Michigan state
Michigan
3 random west
They were probably a top 20 team
If they went 4-1 they could complain about how unfair it was to be in Ohio states division
If they went 0-5…they’re still in a bowl.
Meanwhile Penn state won a big ten title because they were in the east.
In 2016 if there were no divisions penn state would’ve had to beat Ohio state a second time to win the conference. (And I don’t think they would have)
Ski-U-Ham
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Assuming LSU's losses were to the SEC, the whole argument is the SEC rankings are inflated anyway so I don't that helps you make the point you're trying to make
upnorthkid
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for those wondering who those teams are like I was
LSU
2021
20. Florida who went 6-7
14. Texas A&M who went 8-5
2022
7. Ole Miss who went 8-5
6. Alabama who went 11-2
2023
Missouri who went 11-2
2024
9. Ole Miss who went 10-3
2025
4. Clemson who went 7-6
MN
2021
18 Wisconsin who finished 9-4
2023
24 Iowa who went 10-4
2024
11 USC who went 7-6
24 Illinois who went 10-3
2025
25 Nebraska who went 7-5 (pending)
So both teams with some wins versus good teams, both with some wins that were vastly overrated. I'm sure both teams have wins against teams who went on to become ranked or looked pretty good but lol at having a couple top 10 wins who went on to lose a ton of games. As an aside on 2022 where things were all sorts of wacky, Kentucky also was also ranked as high as 7th and lost 6 games (because they also beat that Florida team who went 6-7), Texas A&M 6th and went 5-7.
There is massive built in bias to these rankings and why preseason rankings can feed forward into more "ranked wins" which only helps to perpetuate landing recruits, TV deals, and media coverage. To act like the majority of people who get to vote in the AP or even the coaches poll have any idea on 70-90% of football teams (even higher preseason) is laugh out loud funny. Do away with the polls until after at least the non-con and this gets a whole lot more straightforward about who's actually good, which would also lead to us doing a better job ranking teams when it comes to what really matters (the CFP rankings).
The Deliberate Stranger
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I thought for sure Wisconsin finished ranked in 2021, but out win against them knocked them all the way out of the top 25 from 14. Seems a bit absurd since we also finished 9-4 that year
upnorthkid
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yeah but did you know we're the Gophers thus making any loss to us counting as at least 2 losses?
the only teams this does not apply to are SEC teams where it only counts as 1 or not even a loss if this is in a bowl game because then you probably just didn't care about the game
During the East/West era, 2014-2023, here are the records of B1G West teams vs Michigan, Michigan State, & Penn State:
Wisconsin 5-7 including a loss to PSU in the B1G Championship game
Iowa was 5-11 including losses in 3 B1G championship games to Michigan & Michigan State.
NW was 5-10
Illinois was 4-8
Minnesota was 4-7
Nebraska was 3-8
Purdue was 1-9 including their loss in the 2022 B1G Championship game
So you can take Wisconsin & Iowa who were clearly the best teams in the B1G West and any combo you want of the rest of the teams to make up the best/top 4 of the division and the numbers don't add up to "coin flip".
Now Michigan State, who was the 4th best team in that division, was about a coin flip vs the best in the West.
1-2 vs Wisconsin
2-2 vs Iowa
3-3 vs NW
1-2 vs Minnesota
SeaBee_Gopher
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The more the SEC loses in the bowls, the more this goes away. I think a lot of the AP voters care about this stuff less than we do. They do what's easy. I also think they watch a lot of the bowls so that will heavily influence them going into next year.
So much has changed over the last few years, looking back 5 or 10 years is basically irrelevant. It will take time for the bias to go away, but I think it's happening. The SEC bowl games will continue to be interesting as will the preseason top 25 to see if we get a little more conference diversity.
The SEC also benefited from doing well out-of-conference early this year. It turns out a lot of the P4 teams they played sucked (like Wisconsin), but we didn't know that day one.
So much has changed over the last few years, looking back 5 or 10 years is basically irrelevant. It will take time for the bias to go away, but I think it's happening. The SEC bowl games will continue to be interesting as will the preseason top 25 to see if we get a little more conference diversity.
The SEC also benefited from doing well out-of-conference early this year. It turns out a lot of the P4 teams they played sucked (like Wisconsin), but we didn't know that day one.
dinkything
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Yes… comparing LSU at one of its worst 5-year stretches - as they fired two head coaches and respective coaching staffs, while paying massive 8-figure buyouts to both Ed O and Brian K. - to the Gophers at one off their best 5-year stretches… is really interesting.
As I mentioned earlier in this thread, LSU, as one of just 3 programs to have won at least 3 national championships since the year 2000, is absolutely elite.
Just watch our local Bloomington high school grad, Lane Kiffen, battle for a 4th LSU national championship of the century 12 months from now.
caliGopher
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Just to add some perspective to this conversation, which is, as pointed out earlier, NOT an argument that Minnesota is underrated, but that the rankings favor the SEC:
During the time period of the post 2021-2025, the winning percentages of Conference Games only were:
LSU: 52.0% (one season below .500 for opponents in aggregate)
Minnesota: 46.9% (one season above .500 for opponents in aggregate)
Note, I did not adjust the totals to remove games against LSU or Minnesota to remove their relative strength from the totals (which I've done in the past and for comparison sake does very little to the overall results in this small of a data set.
The winning percentage of Opponents by year was as follows:
Ultimately, was LSU ranked higher than they should have been, consistently in these 5 years? Yes. There is enough here that they did play a tougher schedule, which can only account for a portion of the number of weeks they were ranked. At some point, you can't ignore that similar results, even against a tougher schedule, aren't dissimilar. When you consider the schedules were close to equal in two years, clearly were stronger for LSU in two, and stronger for Minnesota in one, there isn't a definitive reason why LSU would remain ranked when putting up similar win totals. The relative weakness of the opponents' schedule does not indicate that Minnesota should have been ranked more with the same results.
This is but one metric to consider. Things like offensive production (not a strong suit for the Gophers under Fleck), defensive production (more of a strong suit under Fleck) of both the teams and the opponents should also be considered, but at the end of the day, wins and losses matter most.
I believe that there is a skew in pre-season rankings and has been forever, based on history, as well as talent level over the past 20 years, and an anticipation that the coaching staffs will deliver on the promise.
Fleck has delivered on par with what to expect for the most part. Very few upsets, and mostly wins the games he "should".
In the case of LSU, one can reasonably project that the coaches consistently under-delivered on expectations and ability.
The best option would be to do away with preseason and early-season rankings until week 4 or 5 and let performance vs. expectations lead the way, but that's not going to be supported by an industry that makes a ton of money on telling fans that they'll be great this year.
During the time period of the post 2021-2025, the winning percentages of Conference Games only were:
LSU: 52.0% (one season below .500 for opponents in aggregate)
Minnesota: 46.9% (one season above .500 for opponents in aggregate)
Note, I did not adjust the totals to remove games against LSU or Minnesota to remove their relative strength from the totals (which I've done in the past and for comparison sake does very little to the overall results in this small of a data set.
The winning percentage of Opponents by year was as follows:
| MN | LSU | MN v. LSU | |
| 2021 | 44.4% | 54.7% | -10.3% |
| 2022 | 43.2% | 46.9% | -3.7% |
| 2023 | 55.6% | 50.0% | +5.6% |
| 2024 | 49.4% | 50.0% | -.6% |
| 2025 | 44.4% | 56.3% | -11.9% |
Ultimately, was LSU ranked higher than they should have been, consistently in these 5 years? Yes. There is enough here that they did play a tougher schedule, which can only account for a portion of the number of weeks they were ranked. At some point, you can't ignore that similar results, even against a tougher schedule, aren't dissimilar. When you consider the schedules were close to equal in two years, clearly were stronger for LSU in two, and stronger for Minnesota in one, there isn't a definitive reason why LSU would remain ranked when putting up similar win totals. The relative weakness of the opponents' schedule does not indicate that Minnesota should have been ranked more with the same results.
This is but one metric to consider. Things like offensive production (not a strong suit for the Gophers under Fleck), defensive production (more of a strong suit under Fleck) of both the teams and the opponents should also be considered, but at the end of the day, wins and losses matter most.
I believe that there is a skew in pre-season rankings and has been forever, based on history, as well as talent level over the past 20 years, and an anticipation that the coaching staffs will deliver on the promise.
Fleck has delivered on par with what to expect for the most part. Very few upsets, and mostly wins the games he "should".
In the case of LSU, one can reasonably project that the coaches consistently under-delivered on expectations and ability.
The best option would be to do away with preseason and early-season rankings until week 4 or 5 and let performance vs. expectations lead the way, but that's not going to be supported by an industry that makes a ton of money on telling fans that they'll be great this year.
The Deliberate Stranger
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We have a winning record vs Sparty in that time frame loss in 2017, won in 2022 and 2023
I included that in a later post. Wisconsin and Illinois were also 2-1 vs MSU during that time frame.
The Deliberate Stranger
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I would argue the five years leading to 2019 were at best the same as the years post 2019 for LSU.They haven't consistently been at the top of the sport in quite sometime. Don't get me wrong I would take those results any day of the week, especially 2019. As for Lane he would have been better off staying in Oxford, LSU a different vive an objectively more accomplished coach than Lane just failed in Baton Rouge
You are kicking ass defeating an argument no one has made here
Not one person has said Mn program is on the same level or better than LSUs
You win!
Congrats!