I see 2 more wins

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Well my take:

Nebraska should be favored but far from unbeatable

Iowa maybe a slight favorite

I take the Gophers over Michigan St.

Oregon, not likely to win that one.

I think the Gophers vs Northwestern is even money.

Gophers should be favored to beat WI

I think there are 4 50/50 or better games, they have a chance to beat Nebraska and probably won't beat Oregon.

I think 3-4 wins is possible but if things don't go very well 2 is possible. Heck, this week is big because if they do beat Nebraska that changes the calculations because now you're sitting at 5-2 and you're probably favored in every game besides Oregon.
 

mcrow47 said:
Well my take:

Nebraska should be favored but far from unbeatable

Iowa maybe a slight favorite

I take the Gophers over Michigan St.

Oregon, not likely to win that one.

I think the Gophers vs Northwestern is even money.

Gophers should be favored to beat WI

I think there are 4 50/50 or better games, they have a chance to beat Nebraska and probably won't beat Oregon.

I think 3-4 wins is possible but if things don't go very well 2 is possible. Heck, this week is big because if they do beat Nebraska that changes the calculations because now you're sitting at 5-2 and you're probably favored in every game besides Oregon.
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Yep.....plenty of winnable games, but none of them will be easy and all will require the team to play well in order to win.

Right now Ohio State and Indiana are the only teams that have looked really good. Oregon seems to be just a notch below those 2 and everyone else kind of fills in after that.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Yep.....plenty of winnable games, but none of them will be easy and all will require the team to play well in order to win.

Right now Ohio State and Indiana are the only teams that have looked really good. Oregon seems to be just a notch below those 2 and everyone else kind of fills in after that.
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Yeah, I don't see any unbeatable teams left or any for sure wins left. I could see anywhere between 2-4 more wind depending on how they perform. Even 5 wins isn't impossible, though unlikely. I feel like 7 wins is a pretty comfortable prediction but like I said if they win this week then the outlook has to change a bit.
 

mcrow47 said:
Iowa maybe a slight favorite
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I guess it depends upon what you mean by a "slight" favorite. Iowa is 9-1 against us over the last 10 games. They are ranked #23 against our #57 by Sagarin, #22 against our #52 by Team Rankings, #32 to our #56 by Massey, and #32 to our #63 by College Football at Sports Reference.

I suppose if the Gophers upset Nebraska and Iowa loses at home to a stumbling Penn State we could see a tight spread. Iowa also at home in next week's game. I would be surprised if the spread was less than +8 for the Gophers.
 

mngg11 said:
Careful, some of the board gomers might accuse you of "settling for mediocrity
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Yeah, that one always cracks me up. If I could dedicate myself to being enraged about any season with less than 9 wins, we'd never have a season with fewer than 9 wins again!
 


TwistingMyMelon said:
I guess it depends upon what you mean by a "slight" favorite. Iowa is 9-1 against us over the last 10 games. They are ranked #23 against our #57 by Sagarin, #22 against our #52 by Team Rankings, #32 to our #56 by Massey, and #32 to our #63 by College Football at Sports Reference.

I suppose if the Gophers upset Nebraska and Iowa loses at home to a stumbling Penn State we could see a tight spread. Iowa also at home in next week's game. I would be surprised if the spread was less than +8 for the Gophers.
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Pervious seasons have no bearing on this season. And rankings typically don't mean crap. If you are out side like the top 10 or so the rankings really don't matter all that much. And if Gophers beat Nebraska and Iowa loses to Penn St. the Gophers would be the clear favorite going into that game.
 

mcrow47 said:
Pervious seasons have no bearing on this season. And rankings typically don't mean crap. If you are out side like the top 10 or so the rankings really don't matter all that much. And if Gophers beat Nebraska and Iowa loses to Penn St. the Gophers would be the clear favorite going into that game.
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So, which one is it? "Rankings typically don't mean crap" or "rankings really don't matter that much?" Those two statements don't mean the same thing. Apparently, that escaped you.

I'll believe that the Gophers are favored at Iowa when I see it.
 

TwistingMyMelon said:
So, which one is it? "Rankings typically don't mean crap" or "rankings really don't matter that much?" Those two statements don't mean the same thing. Apparently, that escaped you.

I'll believe that the Gophers are favored at Iowa when I see it.
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You're a real smartass, aren't you?

They mean basically the same thing. They're not completely meaningless but they don't really predict outcomes very well. And I didn't say the Gophers are favored. Maybe you have a reading comprehension problem?

You may have a differing opinion, and that is fine, but you don't need to be a jerk.
 
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RememberMurray said:
A 9-win regular season? Wow.

I have three questions for you:

1) How long have you been a Gopher football fan?

2) How many 9-win regular seasons have the Gophers had in that time period?

3) Based on your answers to Questions 1 and 2, how often would you expect to have a 9-win regular season?

The Gophers have won 9 games in a season multiple times under Fleck if you include bowl wins. But if you set your expectations at 9 regular season wins you are setting yourself up for frequent disappointment. How many programs in the B1G — or in any other conference — achieve 9 win regular seasons routinely? Not too many.
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  • Been a fan since the Ricky Foggie days.
  • Not many, I can only recall Mason's 10-3 win season beating Oregon in the Sun Bowl and 2019.
My point was that things seemed so promising when Fleck was hired and that proved true up until the pandemic.
  • I don't expect it that often.
I think Fleck's success has been hampered by Ciarrocca's departure. It's too bad, I think he only left to be closer to home. I think he's a great OC who had great success with a HC like Fleck.

I really hope Harbaugh develops and gets better and better. He's great at getting QB's. I just don't think Fleck will see another 9 win regular season anytime soon unless he can find a Ciarrocca level OC, or unless Harbaugh can really develop, which he very well might. Have to be able to run the ball though.

I think 9 regular season wins would of already happened had KC not left. The offense is what has kept it from happening since his departure. I think we beat NC (twice) and we beat Cal and we don't lose to BG. If the offense and run game is better, KC better, we win several more games the last several years.
 



MNVCGUY said:
Just for fun I went through last 4 years of Big Ten and Pac 12 standings to see how many times teams got to 9 regular season wins from 2021-2024

9+ Regular Season Wins
4 Times - Oregon (Pac12 x 3, BIG x 1), Ohio State
3 Times - Michigan, Penn State
2 Times - Washington (Pac12 x 2)
1 Time - Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, USC (Pac12), UCLA (Pac12)

9 Wins (including bowl game victory)
2 Times - Minnesota
1 Time - Wisconsin, Purdue

Didn't reach 9 wins (with or without a bowl game) during that stretch
Rutgers
Maryland
Northwestern
Nebraska

Bottom line - Getting to 9 wins is hard for the non-helmet schools.

If you include bowl games there are 6 teams in the Big Ten that have reached 9 wins or better in at least 50% of of the past 4 seasons and we are one of them.
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So 7 of the 14 BT schools did it in that time span, half the conference. 10 of 18 if you include the PAC 12 schools.
 

Some Day...Maybe said:
So 7 of the 14 BT schools did it in that time span, half the conference. 10 of 18 if you include the PAC 12 schools.
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Yep - and if you expand it to one additional full season (2019) so that you have a 5 year sample (ignoring Covid year) - Minnesota and Wisconsin join the 1 time group, Iowa moves into the 2 time club, Michigan and Penn State move to 4 times, and Ohio State and Oregon go to 5 times.

No change to the 9 wins including bowl totals.
 

I see a game against Nebraska on Friday night. I see a Gopher team that needs to play much better in every facet of the game than they did against Purdue if they hope to win against Nebraska.
My hope is that the team finds a new "how" on Friday night so I can celebrate a win rather than bemoan a loss.
 




I think we are capable of playing better than we have. I'd like to think we'll figure out how to run rhe ball at least a little better. Our receivers are going to learn to run their routes better for the play called and they will get better at catching contested passes. These are all things I'm sure they are working on offensively. The light will come on for these guys.

We have a good quarterback ...he's going to get better and the team will follow.

Defensively, we are not hopeless....we have some playmakers. 5 very winnable games. I'll be surprised and disappointed if we only win 3 of the 5....let alone 2.
 

FinnGopher said:
I see a game against Nebraska on Friday night. I see a Gopher team that needs to play much better in every facet of the game than they did against Purdue if they hope to win against Nebraska.
My hope is that the team finds a new "how" on Friday night so I can celebrate a win rather than bemoan a loss.
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Cincinnati is Nebby's only win of any consequence. Hard to tell if they are indeed the better team.
 

mcrow47 said:
Well my take:

Nebraska should be favored but far from unbeatable

Iowa maybe a slight favorite

I take the Gophers over Michigan St.

Oregon, not likely to win that one.

I think the Gophers vs Northwestern is even money.

Gophers should be favored to beat WI

I think there are 4 50/50 or better games, they have a chance to beat Nebraska and probably won't beat Oregon.

I think 3-4 wins is possible but if things don't go very well 2 is possible. Heck, this week is big because if they do beat Nebraska that changes the calculations because now you're sitting at 5-2 and you're probably favored in every game besides Oregon.
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Not a math guy but:
30% chance of beating Nebraska
30% chance of beating Iowa
60% chance of beating Michigan state
1% chance of beating Oregon
60% chance of beating northwestern
80% chance of beating wisconsin

=
2.61 more expected wins.
7-5 is likely record but if you don’t get one of the next two it drops to 6-6 as the likely record
 

Some guy said:
Not a math guy but:
30% chance of beating Nebraska
30% chance of beating Iowa
60% chance of beating Michigan state
1% chance of beating Oregon
60% chance of beating northwestern
80% chance of beating wisconsin

=
2.61 more expected wins.
7-5 is likely record but if you don’t get one of the next two it drops to 6-6 as the likely record
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I think this is the biggest game of the year for the Gophers. Probably the most pivotal game.
 


Some guy said:
Not a math guy but:
30% chance of beating Nebraska
30% chance of beating Iowa
60% chance of beating Michigan state
1% chance of beating Oregon
60% chance of beating northwestern
80% chance of beating wisconsin

=
2.61 more expected wins.
7-5 is likely record but if you don’t get one of the next two it drops to 6-6 as the likely record
Click to expand...

The Massey algorithm says 2.55 more expected wins, so they must have copied your math.
 

I see 3. MSU, wisconsin, and one of Nebraska, Iowa, and Northwestern.

That would give the Gophers a winning Big Ten record in something of a rebuilding season.
 

The Gophers have looked rough/bad for major parts of all their Power 4 games yet are 2-2; really 2-1 in games they had a chance to win. They will improve.

As bad as their run game has been, it helps to have a passing offense that can come from behind and win games at the wire.

Barring major key injuries and continued improvement, I'm going with 3 more wins base-case plus a 50/50 chance vs Nebraska. 7-8 wins.
 

Panthadad2 said:
The Massey algorithm says 2.55 more expected wins, so they must have copied your math.
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Yeah, just my opinion and not based on anything other than looking at the teams results but 3 wins seems like a solid prediction. Could be 4 if they perform better than expected, could be 2 if they perform worse than expected.
 




mcrow47 said:
Well my take:

Nebraska should be favored but far from unbeatable

Iowa maybe a slight favorite

I take the Gophers over Michigan St.

Oregon, not likely to win that one.

I think the Gophers vs Northwestern is even money.

Gophers should be favored to beat WI

I think there are 4 50/50 or better games, they have a chance to beat Nebraska and probably won't beat Oregon.

I think 3-4 wins is possible but if things don't go very well 2 is possible. Heck, this week is big because if they do beat Nebraska that changes the calculations because now you're sitting at 5-2 and you're probably favored in every game besides Oregon.
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They will not be favored at Iowa City
 


Using my Steiner Math.
You've got a 50% chance of beating Michigan State. You've got a 50% chance of beating Northwestern. You've got a 50% chance of beating Wisconsin. That's a 150% chance that you win those games.

You have a 100% chance of beating Nebraska. Then you have a 50% chance you beat Iowa. That's another 150% chance of winning those games.

So 150% and 150% is a 300% chance of winning those games and dancing to Jump Around in the middle of the field after beating Wisconsin.

The numbers don't lie. Golden Gopher football is the becoming the genetic freak of the B1G Conference. Who's your daddy?

😆 :LOL:

Search "Steiner Math" on YouTube for a video reference.
 

IrishGoph55 said:
Chill. In 2019 we barely beat SD State, GA Southern, and Fresno State before we started rolling.
Easily could have lost that PSU game as well. Imagine if even just the Fresno and PSU games were losses? How different would we view that season. We are 4-2 (2-1). I won't judge until after Friday. Let's hope we can see significant improvements. That being said I only see about 3-4 more wins haha.
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See!!!! Now I’ll judge, I think we will be alright !
 


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