GH: ESPN has the Gophers finishing 6-6

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Split Season Ahead? ESPN Predictor Sees Gophers at 6-6 - GopherHole.com

In my season prediction article before the season, I also shared ESPN‘s Matchup Predictor for every Gophers game of the season. What is the ESPN Matchup Predictor? The ESPN Matchup Predictor is part of ESPN’s analytics tools for college football, providing a probability for each team to win a...
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In my season prediction article before the season, I also shared ESPN‘s Matchup Predictor for every Gophers game of the season. What is the ESPN Matchup Predictor? The ESPN Matchup Predictor is part of ESPN’s analytics tools for college football, providing a probability for each team to win a given matchup. It’s powered by the FPI (Football Power Index), ESPN’s rating system designed to predict team strength and future outcomes.

If you look at each Minnesota game individually on ESPN, you will see what percentage the Gophers have of winning according to ESPN Analytics and the ESPN Matchup Predictor. Now, it's completely fine if you brush this model off and don't buy into it. I also have some doubts about the various models out there in the sports world.

Before the season, the Matchup Predictor liked the Gophers’ chances of winning in 8 out of 12 games. The percentages varied between a 99% chance of winning against Northwestern State and a 53.2% chance against Wisconsin. The lowest percentage Minnesota had before the season was against Ohio State, with 10.4%.

One thing to note about the Matchup Predictor is that it changes as the season progresses.

With the Gophers in a bye week, I was curious to see how each game has changed now that we have a better idea of what this Minnesota team looks like. To start, ESPN had the Gophers with a 3-0 record entering their first bye of the season. They gave the Gophers a 57.8% chance of winning at Cal. Before the season, they liked the Gophers’ chances in five of their nine games. Those games were against Rutgers, Purdue, Michigan State, Northwestern, and Wisconsin. Now that the season has started, they like the Badgers’ chances more than the Gophers. Examining the updated percentages, ESPN projects Minnesota to finish with a 6-6 record. The only percentage that has increased for Minnesota is against Northwestern, and that increase was very minimal. The most significant decrease was against Nebraska. ESPN had considered that game a toss-up before the season, but now they favor the Huskers’ chances..

Below, I have compared the percentages of the Gophers before the season and the percentages entering the bye week.



vs Rutgers
Before the season: 60%
Now: 51.9%

at Ohio State
Before the season: 10.4%
Now: 6.6%

vs Purdue
Before the season: 86.2%
Now: 73.2%

vs Nebraska
Before the season: 47%
Now: 24.2%

at Iowa
Before the season: 35.6%
Now: 33.2%

vs Michigan State
Before the season: 69.3%
Now: 65.8%

at Oregon
Before the season: 14.5%
Now: 5.4%

at Northwestern
Before the season: 59.7%
Now: 60.5%

vs Wisconsin
Before the season: 53.2%
Now: 46.9%

How do you like the Gophers’ chances the rest of the season? What are your thoughts on what ESPN thinks?

Comment below.
 

I'd be ok with that at this point.

I'm seeing a lot of challenges / learning to do with this team. This may really be a "growth" type year. Not that they can't pick it up but it seems less likely to me now than before the season started.
 

Purdue, Northwestern, and Wisconsin seem like they can be won. I wouldn't be surprised at 5-7. Heck, I'd actually like it because it might force PJ to change. If we squeak out a 7-5 record he'll probably think he's doing decent and we'll get a nice, conservative game plan all next year as well.
 

I’d say Rutgers would be tougher than Iowa at this point. I think Iowa & Nebraska are both over hyped & very winnable.

I believe Rutgers will be a challenge with their air attack. If we win vs Rutgers next weekend, then I’d feel even better about Iowa & Nebraska games.
 

I have yet to see anything in the pre-season part of the schedule that makes me think we can't compete with everyone on our schedule with the exception of Ohio State and Oregon. To win those games we will need to play perfect and they will have to make mistakes.

The other 7 all feel like games we can win if we play well and lose if we don't. The Rutgers game will be a much better indication of how the remainder of the season is going to go.
 


6-6 feels most likely at this point. We have 3 games where we'll be favored by 5-10, 2 that are close to toss ups, 2 where we'll be underdogs by about 7-10, and 2 extreme longshots. 4 wins from those first 3 groups seems somewhat likely.
 

Yah-E said:
I’d say Rutgers would be tougher than Iowa at this point. I think Iowa & Nebraska are both over hyped & very winnable.

I believe Rutgers will be a challenge with their air attack. If we win vs Rutgers next weekend, then I’d feel even better about Iowa & Nebraska games.
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One of these days Nebraska is going to play to their talent level ...
 


A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
I'd be ok with that at this point.

I'm seeing a lot of challenges / learning to do with this team. This may really be a "growth" type year. Not that they can't pick it up but it seems less likely to me now than before the season started.
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In the new B1G for teams like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, & Nebraska, 6-6 and 7-5 are going to be what 8-4 & 9-3 used to be like in the old West division.

Fans aren't going to like it but it's the new reality of playing the old East opponents more often and having to deal with the west coast additions.
 





DarrenTheGreek said:
Way too much overreaction from Saturday. 8-4 is still the mark.
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And 9-3 is still on the table. It won't be easy (it's the Big Ten so it never is), but we should be able to compete talent wise with everyone on our remaining schedule with the exception of Ohio State and Oregon who are a clear cut above.

5-7, 6-6.....could certainly happen but as things sit right now I still feel like 7-5 is closer to the floor with 9-3 being a likely ceiling so 8-4 is a solid prediction.

Cal game was frustrating as hell but we made a ton of mistaks and still could have won that game. Clean that up and this has the potential to be a very solid team this year.
 

tikited said:
I don't see more than one more win if Taylor doesn't play.
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I don't buy in to the idea that one player completely alters a team's trajectory outside of the quarterback position. Running back is a plug and play position and we've shown over the years we can be successful by committee. The offensive line needs to execute more consistently, I do believe in a few more weeks we'll be operating at a better clip and Harbaugh will have ironed out some of the issues we saw last week.

We absolutely cannot start like turtles hiding in our shells come conference play, so whatever conservatism they've leaned on in the first three weeks needs to be shelved.
 




mngg11 said:
I don't buy in to the idea that one player completely alters a team's trajectory outside of the quarterback position. Running back is a plug and play position and we've shown over the years we can be successful by committee. The offensive line needs to execute more consistently, I do believe in a few more weeks we'll be operating at a better clip and Harbaugh will have ironed out some of the issues we saw last week.

We absolutely cannot start like turtles hiding in our shells come conference play, so whatever conservatism they've leaned on in the first three weeks needs to be shelved.
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I believe Taylor is our best offensive player. He is the straw imo. He is so important to the rushing and passing attack. I don't think Harbaugh and co. has it in them to figure it out without Taylor in the mix. Hope I'm wrong.
 


We would have to continue to suffer from atrocious coaching for that to happen. Too much talent to be .500.
 

MNVCGUY said:
And 9-3 is still on the table. It won't be easy (it's the Big Ten so it never is), but we should be able to compete talent wise with everyone on our remaining schedule with the exception of Ohio State and Oregon who are a clear cut above.

5-7, 6-6.....could certainly happen but as things sit right now I still feel like 7-5 is closer to the floor with 9-3 being a likely ceiling so 8-4 is a solid prediction.

Cal game was frustrating as hell but we made a ton of mistaks and still could have won that game. Clean that up and this has the potential to be a very solid team this year.
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I see people on here refer to our talent level from time to time as a reason for optimism. I'm genuinely curious where the optimism comes from or is relative to? Is the talent level relative to last year? To other B1G teams? At what positions are we more often than not going to win matchups? I'm not saying it's not there, but I'd like to know from where this confidence in our talent derives. Frankly, particularly now with so many rosters having so much turnover from year to year, I think there's a broad middle of the conference outside of the blue bloods and maybe one or two disasters where its almost impossible to know until the games are actually played.
 

swede2 said:
I see people on here refer to our talent level from time to time as a reason for optimism. I'm genuinely curious where the optimism comes from or is relative to? Is the talent level relative to last year? To other B1G teams? At what positions are we more often than not going to win matchups? I'm not saying it's not there, but I'd like to know from where this confidence in our talent derives. Frankly, particularly now with so many rosters having so much turnover from year to year, I think there's a broad middle of the conference outside of the blue bloods and maybe one or two disasters where its almost impossible to know until the games are actually played.
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The only position I worry about is OL. I think we’re at least slightly above the conference average in every other area except maybe linebacker. We need better WR play but the talent is there IMO. I chalked up the last game to just a terrible day by Collins. I believe in our D to be once again top-notch.
 

swede2 said:
I see people on here refer to our talent level from time to time as a reason for optimism. I'm genuinely curious where the optimism comes from or is relative to? Is the talent level relative to last year? To other B1G teams? At what positions are we more often than not going to win matchups? I'm not saying it's not there, but I'd like to know from where this confidence in our talent derives. Frankly, particularly now with so many rosters having so much turnover from year to year, I think there's a broad middle of the conference outside of the blue bloods and maybe one or two disasters where its almost impossible to know until the games are actually played.
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Before Fleck we often had teams where our talent was clearly a step below our competition even teams like Iowa and Wisconsin. Now we are at a talent deficit against the blue bloods but we really aren't at a deficit against the bulk of the teams in the conference.

What that leads to is close, competitive games where the team that executes best tends to win.

We can't blow most teams away with our talent but we also rarely look like we don't belong on the field with them talent wise. It didn't always used to be that way.

A side reflection of this is the steady increase in players who are making it to the NFL. We now recruit and develop on a very similar level to the bulk of the conference.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Before Fleck we often had teams where our talent was clearly a step below our competition even teams like Iowa and Wisconsin. Now we are at a talent deficit against the blue bloods but we really aren't at a deficit against the bulk of the teams in the conference.

What that leads to is close, competitive games where the team that executes best tends to win.

We can't blow most teams away with our talent but we also rarely look like we don't belong on the field with them talent wise. It didn't always used to be that way.

A side reflection of this is the steady increase in players who are making it to the NFL. We now recruit and develop on a very similar level to the bulk of the conference.
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So your point is that we aren't better talent wise than 2/3rds of the conference but rather on par with the bulk of conference talent wise and then it comes down to coaching and execution. I'd say that's fair.
 

tikited said:
I don't see more than one more win if Taylor doesn't play.
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This is a good team. I was at the Cal game. My impression is that we would have beaten Cal, perhaps handily, if both of our superstars, Taylor and Perich, hadn’t played. Besides the two punt blunders by Koi, he was very bad in coverage—a few big, costly mistakes. He clearly is trying to do too much. This is a fundamentally sound team that is burdened by (1) PJ’s well documented tendency to shy away explosive play attempts and (2) a desire to showcase Koi so broadly that it might be detracting from his preparation and situational awareness, causing the team to suffer from costly unforced errors. We still can be 8-4 with this team … unless PJ’s coaching quirks continue to mess things up.
 
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We have 9 games left. 7 of those are very winnable/close to toss ups.

So I think we likely win around half of those 7 games, meaning 6-6 or 7-5 seem like the most likely outcomes. PJ’s teams tend to improve during the year so I’ll take 7-5.
 

swede2 said:
So your point is that we aren't better talent wise than 2/3rds of the conference but rather on par with the bulk of conference talent wise and then it comes down to coaching and execution. I'd say that's fair.
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Yep, We are firmly in that second tier of teams behind the elite teams in college football who have advantages that most teams just can't compete with when it comes to attracting top talent on a year to year basis. Majority of the Big Ten is in that tier with us.
 


DelawareGopher said:
We have 9 games left. 7 of those are very winnable/close to toss ups.

So I think we likely win around half of those 7 games, meaning 6-6 or 7-5 seem like the most likely outcomes. PJ’s teams tend to improve during the year so I’ll take 7-5.
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Yeah I would say 7-5 is most likely

Pretty clearly the floor feels 5-7 and ceiling feels 9-3
 

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