2025 Big Ten college football projections, preview

MisterGopher

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https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-big-ten-college-football-projections-preview

Gophers included in

A couple of breaks away from a run​

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Minnesota Golden Gophers

Head coach: P.J. Fleck (ninth year, 58-39 overall)

2025 projection: 40th in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.4 in the Big Ten)

Most of what I just said about Ferentz's Hawkeyes also applies to Fleck's Golden Gophers. In eight years at Minnesota, Fleck has engineered six bowl bids and three seasons with nine or more wins, and he has done it with a plodding offense and often sterling defense.

The offense didn't quite plod well enough in 2024 (81st in offensive SP+), and now a redshirt freshman quarterback takes over behind center. But 6-foot-5, 230-pound Drake Lindsey comes well regarded, and the skill corps might have a bit more explosiveness than normal. Running back A.J. Turner (8.3 yards per carry at Marshall) could complement returnee Darius Taylor beautifully in the backfield, and receiver transfers Javon Tracy (Miami-Ohio) and Logan Loya (UCLA) could work well with big-play returnee Le'Meke Brockington. Rumor has it that dynamic sophomore safety Koi Perich could get snaps on offense as well, and Fleck added another blue-chip sophomore in Malachi Coleman (Nebraska). The line is generally big and solid, but it will be reliant on transfers with three lost starters and four portal additions. Though this will still be a Minnesota offense, for better or worse, it feels as if this version might have a bit higher ceiling and lower floor than usual.

Fleck's four top-15 defenses have come with three different coordinators, so the loss of DC Corey Hetherman to Miami doesn't have to spell doom. Longtime Fleck assistant Danny Collins takes the reins and should know what to do with a unit that returns 10 of the 17 players with 200-plus snaps in 2024.

The secondary could be pretty sophomore-heavy with safeties Perich (five interceptions and nine run stops last year), Kerry Brown and 2023 starter Darius Green all manning key roles, but there are veterans in the front six. Deven Eastern, a 310-pound tackle, made 14 run stops, sacks leader Anthony Smith returns, and linebacker transfer Jeff Roberson (Oklahoma State) should comfortably replace Cody Lindenberg in the middle. If at least one of a trio of smaller-school transfers clicks -- end Steven Curtis (Illinois State), tackle Rushawn Lawrence (Stony Brook), corner Jaylen Bowden (NC Central) -- then this should be another strong defense.

The high variance potential of the offense makes Minnesota hard to project -- trips to Ohio State and Oregon are probably the only unwinnable games, but just about any opponent besides Northwestern State could trip the Gophers up on a bad day. There might not be a bigger wild card in the middle of the conference.
 


Speaking of "breaks", just look at the first 9 games of the magical 2019 season:

first three - they were all supposed to be wins, but all were closer than we thought. Particularly @Fresno State and Georgia Southern. Easily could've lost either or both of those, but they found ways to win.

next five - against the weak West division teams (outside of Gophers, Iowa, and Wisc that year, ILL finished 6-7 overall and the other three were worse), then against Rutgers and Maryland which finished a combined 1-17 in conference).

game 9 the massive win against Penn State (at home)


Picked up 10th win against NW, which finsihed last in the West

We know what happened against Iowa and Wisc.
 

Solid breakdown.
Yep....very fair assessment of where the team is at. And while I think it is really hard to project where most teams are going to be at this time of year I do agree that we are definitely one of the toughest to project.

Unfortunate that so much hinges on one guy but if Drake can get it done we have a chance to be really good. If he struggles it could go sideways quickly.
 

6.8 wins and 4.4 wins in the big ten essentially means SP+ thinks the gophers are 4/10 to beat cal

I would take the over
 





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