"We Don't Even Know Rosters Yet" Field of 68 Projection

[SelectionSunday]

WTH, let's do an insanely, ridiculously early -- we don't even know rosters yet -- initial Field of 68 projection for the 2025-26 season. We'll do another one in 3 months, as by early August we'll know a lot more about rosters.

An * indicates the projected automatic qualifier.

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (May 1, 2025)
America East (1): Vermont

American (1): Memphis

ACC (6): *Duke, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, SMU

ASUN (1): Queens

Atlantic 10 (2): *Loyola-Chicago, VCU

Big East (5): Creighton, Georgetown, Marquette, *Saint John's, UConn

Big Sky (1): Montana

Big South (1): Winthrop

Big Ten (10): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, *Purdue, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin

Big XII (7): Arizona, Baylor, BYU, *Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech

Big West (1): UCSB

Coastal (1): UNC-Wilmington

Conference USA (1): New Mexico State

Horizon (1): Oakland

Ivy (1): Penn

MAAC (1): Merrimack

MAC (1): Akron

MEAC (1): Norfolk State

Missouri Valley (1): Illinois State

Mountain West (3): *Boise State, San Diego State, Utah State

NEC (1): Central Connecticut

OVC (1): Morehead State

Patriot (1): Bucknell

SEC (10): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Ole MIss, *Tennessee, Texas

SoCon (1): East Tennessee State

Southland (1): Nicholls

SWAC (1): Texas Southern

Summit (1): St. Thomas

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State

WCC (2): *Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

WAC (1): Abilene Christian
--------------------------------------
Last 4 In: Georgetown, Miami, Mississippi State, VCU

First 4 Out: Georgia, Maryland, Saint Louis, Xavier

Next 4 Out: San Francisco, Vanderbilt, Virginia, West Virginia

Non-Power 5 At-Large Bids (4): Saint Mary's, San Diego State, Utah State, VCU
__________________________________
Teams Newly Eligible for NCAA & NIT: East Texas A&M (Southland), Lindenwood (OVC), Queens (ASUN), St. Thomas (Summit), Southern Indiana (OVC), Stonehill (NEC)

 

[BleedGopher]

What's the path to conferences like Summit earning an at-large bid? Seems like the WCC is the formula as it was a one-bid conference for years and years and eventually both Gonzaga and St. Mary's broke the mold. Obviously Summit is a long way from that, but are there any other case studies to reference in that regard?

Go Gophers!!

 

[SelectionSunday]

What's the path to conferences like Summit earning an at-large bid? Seems like the WCC is the formula as it was a one-bid conference for years and years and eventually both Gonzaga and St. Mary's broke the mold. Obviously Summit is a long way from that, but are there any other case studies to reference in that regard?

Go Gophers!!

Yep, the Summit is a long way from being a 2-bid league.

It would take having a very competitive non-conference schedule (South Dakota State always schedules well), doing something with it (beating 2 or 3 legit at-large caliber opponents), have no bad (Quad 4) losses, and then completely dominate your league (lose no more than 2 league games?). It's been rigged so that it's nearly impossible for teams from outside the Power 5 + the American, A-10, Mountain West, and WCC to get an at-large bid.

This past season the Missouri Valley (Drake) and Big West (UC-San Diego) are good examples of how hard it will be for teams from outside the above-mentioned 9 conferences to ever get an at-large bid going forward. Both had fantastic seasons and fortunately won their conference tournament, but based on how the committee seeded the field neither would have made the tournament as an at-large. That's ridiculous, especially in Drake's case.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Interestingly, Joe Lunardi's first 2025-26 bracket projection has a grand total of zero at-large bids going to conferences outside the Power 5. Even in this day and age of the Power 5 having all the advantages in both selection & seeding, that seems highly improbable.

There were 4 last season. ... New Mexico, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, and Utah State.

Men's Bracketology: Debut predictions for the 2025-26 season

With a bevy of returning talent, Purdue earns the top overall seed in the first edition of our projected field.

www.espn.com