Why are so many former top-100 recruits hitting the transfer portal so quickly?

[BleedGopher]

Per Manny:

In case you missed it, there was a bit of drama over Easter weekend in Norman, Okla., involving a former five-star defensive tackle recruit and the transfer portal.

On Friday, David Stone became one of the biggest free agents of the spring window when he entered his name into the portal. Less than 48 hours later, Stone — the No. 9 overall prospect in the Class of 2024 — announced he was staying put.

Whether it was a moment of indecision or done to create negotiating leverage with Oklahoma’s name, image and likeness collective, Stone became the latest example of an elite former recruit to test college football’s free agent waters within a season or two of arriving on campus.

Eight of the top 100 players in the 2024 cycle in the 247Sports Composite switched schools in the winter window, after just one season on campus. Three more have since put their names into the portal this month.

That includes former four-star safety Zaquan Patterson and four-star receiver Ny Carr, who were both at Miami. The other is former five-star receiver Micah Hudson, who left Texas Tech in December for Texas A&M but is back in the portal. Hudson is expected to return to Texas Tech.

At this point last spring, 16 of the top 100 recruits in the 2023 cycle had already been on the move. Another 22 have since entered the portal, including four entrants this spring. That includes former four-star edge rusher Bai Jobe and four-star receiver Jalen Brown, who are both looking for their third school.

In the Class of 2022, 39 of the top 100 prospects transferred at least once within their first two years of college.

Why are nearly 40 percent of the top 100 high school recruits looking for new homes within two years of signing? Money matters, but there are typically other factors.

“You can’t blame the players for wanting more money if there’s options to do so. Coaches do the same thing,” an NIL agent who represents several elite former recruits said this week. “But I really haven’t had many situations where the players I’ve represented are just asking for more money. It’s more about their fit, how quickly they can get on the field to get to the NFL.”

A former Power 4 staffer said: “When an elite kid leaves, it’s usually because they just don’t fit in the program or don’t play early. Most P4 coaches have around the same salary cap to keep the guys starting happy. Guys who aren’t playing, who feel like they should, hit the portal and see if they can go somewhere else for the same money and start. Usually, guys give it a couple years unless they just want to go and play.”

Why are so many former top-100 recruits hitting the transfer portal so quickly?

Eight of the top 100 players in the 2024 recruiting cycle switched schools in the winter portal window — after just one season on campus.

www.nytimes.com

Go Gophers!!

 

[MNVCGUY]

It is the way of the world now in sports. Used to be you went somewhere, worked your way up the depth chart and earned your way into the starting lineup.

Now you go somewhere and if it doesn't work out right away go somewhere else....if it doesn't work out right away there go somewhere else until you find a place that will play you right away.

Obviously not true of all players but many will transfer or threaten to transfer if they are not getting the playing time THEY feel they deserve, regardless of what the coaches think.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

I think the mindset is different for top 100 players. They don't want to wait for years for their turn--or to "develop." They'll move to where playing time is virtually guaranteed (or roster gaps effectively make a guarantee). If we had told Koi P that he had to wait two years to see the field so that players X and Y could get their turns first, I think he'd be gone. Wouldn't be about money. If we had more top 100 players--if lucky, we get one a decade?--you might see how PJ handles it. He would get those guys on the field early and often--even if not starting--so that they see clearly their future with the team. It's a different thing altogether when a team regularly has 20 or 30 top 100 players on its roster. Not all can get kid glove treatment.

 

[GopherEnEspaña]

They expect higher income with another program. These kids have a lot of pressure on them. You end up stuffed somewhere on the depth chart, while also having everyone in your ear about "You can earn X amount at Y school, you're better than their Z position group, let's go."

I also think/hope it hits these kids that not everyone will play in the NFL, so if they have to hop around to potentially receive their biggest payday then so be it. Not a fan of the rules but here we are.

We'll see if the market corrects itself.

 

[upnorthkid]

think this will be interesting how it translates to the pro level. less and less guys are putting in the work to learn and are ok with bouncing around if the place doesn't suit them. eventually its going to hurt guys at spots like QB I'd imagine

 

[#2Gopher]

Gophergrandpa hit it on the nail we "kid glove treatment." Heros and starters in high school expect all that to follow them in college. Not about paying your dues to earn your spot, they want it now.

 

[50PoundHead]

They expect higher income with another program. These kids have a lot of pressure on them. You end up stuffed somewhere on the depth chart, while also having everyone in your ear about "You can earn X amount at Y school, you're better than their Z position group, let's go."

I also think/hope it hits these kids that not everyone will play in the NFL, so if they have to hop around to potentially receive their biggest payday then so be it. Not a fan of the rules but here we are.

We'll see if the market corrects itself.

I think the money part plays into it in a big way. If a player is a former top 100 kid that hasn't done much in his first two years, he's probably going to move while he's still marketable (as in "I was a top 100 kid"). If they are still buried by the time they are three years into a program, they'll be moving for solely for playing time.

 

[WAGopher]

They expect higher income with another program. These kids have a lot of pressure on them. You end up stuffed somewhere on the depth chart, while also having everyone in your ear about "You can earn X amount at Y school, you're better than their Z position group, let's go."

I also think/hope it hits these kids that not everyone will play in the NFL, so if they have to hop around to potentially receive their biggest payday then so be it. Not a fan of the rules but here we are.

We'll see if the market corrects itself.

Listening to the know-it-all chatter bugs is not a good recipe for success.

 

[MNVCGUY]

think this will be interesting how it translates to the pro level. less and less guys are putting in the work to learn and are ok with bouncing around if the place doesn't suit them. eventually its going to hurt guys at spots like QB I'd imagine

That has already started to come up when you hear NFL vets talking about the entitlement level some of the young guys have even before doing a damn thing in the pro ranks.

I am sure the NFL is an eye opener for some of these guys who haven't truly had to compete and who jumped ship from team to team in college. Can get away with crap like that when you are one of the most talented on the field but once you hit the pro levels everyone is insanely talented and it comes down to putting in the work.

 

[GophersInIowa]

I see both sides of this. For every example of a guy that "paid his dues" to finally get a chance and take advantage of it, there are as many or more that never get the chance. It's pretty common to hear of a guy that never played in one program, transferred and ended up being very good when given the opportunity.

I understand players have to "earn" their opportunities but I don't think it's always that easy. Guys get overlooked all the time and not just because they aren't working hard enough or aren't team players.

I've said before, the portal has helped programs like Minnesota in football. Less players play significant minutes in football compared to basketball. Generally only one QB gets significant minutes. The portal has allowed the talent to be spread out more because talented players want to play.

But at the same time there does seem to be a lot less patience and willingness to give it a little bit of time.

 

[btowngopher]

I think it makes a lot of sense for these top high school kids to consider some lesser programs where less competition is in the way. Get on the field early and prove yourself and you can make way more in NIL down the road either from your current team or by transferring to another place the plans to start you, all the while building an nfl resume. Seems like while yes blue bloods will pay you more immediately, but in the long run you’ll make less if you can’t beat out the talented competition from the jump.

 

[Ope3]

Money.

 

[50PoundHead]

I think it makes a lot of sense for these top high school kids to consider some lesser programs where less competition is in the way. Get on the field early and prove yourself and you can make way more in NIL down the road either from your current team or by transferring to another place the plans to start you, all the while building an nfl resume. Seems like while yes blue bloods will pay you more immediately, but in the long run you’ll make less if you can’t beat out the talented competition from the jump.

I think we are going to see more of what you suggest. More highly-recruited (though not necessarily top 100 high school players) head to the MAC or similar conferences to rack up performance points.