What is easier? Getting to a bowl game, or making the NCAAs?

Which is harder? Bowl games or NCAAs?

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Otis

Otis

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All this coach evaluation talk made me ask myself this question.

It seems on the surface that making a bowl game is pretty easy since it takes only 6 wins to qualify. That with a schedule including 3 relative cupcake games (usually at home) against near non-competitive teams. Which means you only need 3 conference wins to qualify. A 3-6 record is pretty much a back into the bowl method.

And a bowl victory outside of the playoff has lost a ton of street cred.

However, Fleck has made going to bowls a near certainty! Here at Minny, he has made it to bowls 6 out of 8 years winning all 6. Before that he made it to 3 out of 4 at Western Michigan.

Look back at the desert of bowl games we had before PJ. The Gophers have played in 25 bowls total and Glen Mason took us to 7. No other coach has more than 3.

What’s it take to make the NCAAs?

Let’s say it takes a minimum of 20 wins to be on the bubble and 22 wins to make it.

Is that hard? Well, you get to play 11 or 12 non-conference games at home mostly or at a neutral site against colleges most of us wouldn’t know existed if not for basketball. You need to schedule some decent teams if you want to make the tourney but you also need to win around ten of these games. However it isn’t unusual to win all of them if you really unpack the schedule.

That means you have to win around ten games out of 20 in the B1G. .500 ball. This has happened 3 times in the last 20 years! All those teams made the tourney.

I’d like to say basketball is harder and maybe it means more to make the NCAAs than to go to the Pinstripe Bowl.

It’s more fun going to 6 bowls in 8 years and winning than going to 5 NCAAs in 20 years.
 


Making the tourney is harder and holds more weight. No matter how slim your odds are, you're still playing for the biggest championship in college basketball if you make The Dance. Same can't be said for Bowl Season.
 

In Football you can choose 3-4 easy teams to get to your 6. They all count the same.

In basketball you get punished if your wins are too easy.

There are 68 men's bball out of 352 that make NCAAs. about 19%.

In foosball it is 84 bowl teams out of 134 (72 bowl teams + 12 playoff teams). That is around 63%

I think if you start qualifying NCAAs as comparable then it gets tougher.

Although, I do recognize that this is too simple for the real answer because not all NCAA bball teams have an equal chance given auto bids and conferences.
 

atsgopher said:
In Football you can choose 3-4 easy teams to get to your 6. They all count the same.

In basketball you get punished if your wins are too easy.

There are 68 men's bball out of 352 that make NCAAs. about 19%.

In foosball it is 84 bowl teams out of 134 (72 bowl teams + 12 playoff teams). That is around 63%

I think if you start qualifying NCAAs as comparable then it gets tougher.

Although, I do recognize that this is too simple for the real answer because not all NCAA bball teams have an equal chance given auto bids and conferences.
Click to expand...
Football team only has two nonconference games now
 




I said both are easy but my real answer is both are equally difficult/easy. Mathematically, way less college basketball teams make the tournament but in a lot of the conferences only one team is getting in.

Realistically, if you finish in the middle of the Big Ten in basketball or football you are most likely going to be included in post season play.
 





One factor that has to be taken into account when looking at bowl game history is the number of games. In the past there were not nearly as many bowl games as there are now. At this point you just have to get to .500 to qualify for the most part.

So for a school like Minnesota - Getting to the NCAA tournament is significantly harder then getting to a bowl game.
 


This doesn't answer the question, but...



If Minnesota can do this more years than not between now and the end of my life, I'll die a happy man. Anything more than that is gravy.
 



MNVCGUY said:
One factor that has to be taken into account when looking at bowl game history is the number of games. In the past there were not nearly as many bowl games as there are now. At this point you just have to get to .500 to qualify for the most part.

So for a school like Minnesota - Getting to the NCAA tournament is significantly harder then getting to a bowl game.
Click to expand...
Depends on the year
If the big ten was as stacked as the SEC this year and you flip 2-3 results like north Texas and WSU the gophers are in.

90% of years you are correct
 
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I think the existence of the bubble concept makes it clear that the NCAA tournament is harder to make. That doesn't exist in college football, you win six games, and you're locked in as a Power 4 team. Heck you can even win 5 and have a chance.

For a team that has a similarly "average" season in college basketball, that's not the case. Quad 1 wins and strength of schedule certainly helps, but other than a conference title, nothing quite clinches a tournament appearance for a team that's has a winning record but its share of struggles as well.

College athletics have of course changed since then, but look at the 2013-2014 team. Earned 20 wins, including some over ranked foes, didn't make the tournament.

Then again, that team made the NIT, which I've always equated to the middle to lower tier bowl games anyways. The same way the CBI is for mid-majors like the smaller bowls are for Group of 5.
 

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