Week #5 Field of 68 Projection With A Focus on Record vs. the Field

[SelectionSunday]

by Buzz King

ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY, U.S.A. -- With Week #5 of the 2023-24 college basketball season complete, this week we’ll add a different wrinkle to the Field of 68 projection. In addition to projecting the teams, we’ll include the current “record vs. the field” for all 36 at-large qualifiers, as well as the “first 4 out”.

We’re still in the early stages of resume building, but there have been enough games to identify teams with the foundation for a NCAA Tournament-worthy resume. That said, because it’s early, we’ll still have some at-large teams in the field who haven’t really accomplished much yet (cough, cough Duke, Texas). That will change as we get deeper into the season; mid-January is when there starts to be some real separation between the haves and the have-nots.

Teams in bold/italic denote the projected automatic qualifier in a multiple-bid conference. The automatic qualifier is the team with the best conference record (i.e. 2-0 is better than 1-0) or – in the event of a tie – the best NET ranking.

WEEK #5 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played Dec. 9)
America East (1): UMass-Lowell (81)

American (2): FAU (18), Memphis (64)

ACC (5): Clemson (14), Virginia (21), Duke (34), Miami (36), North Carolina (38)

ASUN (1): Lipscomb (133)

Atlantic 10 (1): Dayton (42)

Big East (6): Creighton (5), UConn (7), Marquette (8), Villanova (51), Saint John’s (52), Providence (54)

Big Sky (1): Portland State (89)

Big South (1): Longwood (87)

Big Ten (6): Purdue (4), Illinois (19), Wisconsin (20), Ohio State (35), Northwestern (50), Indiana (124)

Big XII (8): Houston (2), BYU (3), Baylor (6), Iowa State (10), Oklahoma (13), Kansas (17), Texas (61), Kansas State (69)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (63)

Colonial (1): Hofstra (72)

Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech (44)

Horizon (1): Purdue Fort Wayne (76)

Ivy (1): Princeton (11)

MAAC (1): Marist (116)

MAC (1): Toledo (94)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (174)

Missouri Valley (2): Indiana State (12), Drake (47)

Mountain West (5): Colorado State (22), New Mexico (25), San Diego State (30), Utah State (31), Nevada (53)

NEC (1): Merrimack (185)

OVC (1): Morehead State (152)

Pac 12 (3): Arizona (1), Utah (32), USC (68)

Patriot (1): Colgate (118)

SEC (8): Tennessee (9), Texas A&M (15), Alabama (16), Auburn (24), South Carolina (28), Mississippi State (29), Kentucky (39), Ole Miss (84)

SoCon (1): UNC-Greensboro (92)

Southland (1): McNeese State (40)

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M (117)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (138)

Sun Belt (1): James Madison (27)

WCC (1): Gonzaga (33)

WAC (1): Grand Canyon (37)
___________________________
Last 4 In: Iowa State (10), Nevada (53), Texas (61), Memphis (64)

First 4 Out: Appalachian State (49), Washington (55), NC State (57), Butler (59)

Dirty Dozen to Watch: Washington State (23), Cincinnati (26), Florida (43), San Francisco (46), TCU (48), Liberty (56), George Mason (58), Colorado (60), Oregon (67), Duquesne (71), Southern Illinois (73), Saint Joseph’s (82)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (6): New Mexico (25), San Diego State (30), Utah State (31), Drake (47), Nevada (53), Memphis (64)

Moving In (12): Drake, Indiana, Iowa State, Longwood, Louisiana Tech, Norfolk State, Portland State, Prairie View A&M, Purdue Fort Wayne, Toledo, UMass-Lowell, Utah State

Dropping Out (12): Akron, Arkansas, Howard, Liberty, Michigan State, TCU, Texas Southern, UCLA, Vermont, Weber State, Winthrop, Youngstown State

THE 36 AT-LARGES + FIRST 4 OUT (RECORD vs. FIELD OF 68)
36 At-Larges
Drake (2-0): beat Lipscomb, beat Nevada
New Mexico (2-0): beat Toledo, beat Louisiana Tech
Oklahoma (2-0): beat USC, beat Providence
Baylor (1-0): beat Auburn
Mississippi State (1-0): beat Northwestern
Ole Miss (1-0): beat Memphis
Utah State (1-0): beat UC-Irvine
Purdue (5-1): beat Morehead State, beat Gonzaga, beat Tennessee, beat Marquette, lost to Northwestern, beat Alabama
Kansas (3-1): beat Kentucky, lost to Marquette, beat Tennessee, beat UConn
UConn (3-1): beat Indiana, beat Texas, lost to Kansas, beat North Carolina
Northwestern (2-1): beat Dayton, lost to Mississippi State, beat Purdue
Ohio State (2-1): lost to Texas A&M, beat Merrimack, beat Alabama
Villanova (2-1): beat North Carolina, beat Memphis, lost to Kansas State
Kansas State (3-2): lost to USC, beat South Dakota State, beat Providence, lost to Miami, beat Villanova
Marquette (3-2): beat Illinois, beat Kansas, lost to Purdue, lost to Wisconsin, beat Texas
Texas A&M (2-2): beat Ohio State, lost to FAU, beat Iowa State, lost to Virginia
Auburn (1-1): lost to Baylor, beat Indiana
BYU (1-1): beat San Diego State, lost to Utah
Kentucky (1-1): lost to Kansas, beat Miami
Miami (1-1): beat Kansas State, lost to Kentucky
Saint John’s (1-1): lost to Dayton, beat Utah
South Carolina (1-1): beat Grand Canyon, lost to Clemson
Virginia (1-1): lost to Wisconsin, beat Texas A&M
Alabama (2-3): beat Morehead State, beat Indiana State, lost to Ohio State, lost to Clemson, lost to Purdue
Wisconsin (2-3): lost to Tennessee, lost to Providence, beat Virginia, beat Marquette, lost to Arizona
Illinois (1-2): lost to Marquette, beat FAU, lost to Tennessee
North Carolina (1-2): lost to Villanova, beat Tennessee, lost to UConn
Providence (1-2): beat Wisconsin, lost to Kansas State, lost to Oklahoma
San Diego State (1-2): lost to BYU, lost to Grand Canyon, beat UC-Irvine
Utah (1-2): lost to Houston, lost to Saint John’s, beat BYU
USC (1-3): beat Kansas State, lost to UC-Irvine, lost to Oklahoma, lost to Gonzaga
Duke (0-1): lost to Arizona
Iowa State (0-1): lost to Texas A&M
Nevada (0-1): lost to Drake
Memphis (0-2): lost to Villanova, lost to Ole Miss
Texas (0-2): lost to UConn, lost to Marquette
First 4 Out
Appalachian State (1-0): beat Auburn
Washington (1-3): lost to Nevada, lost to San Diego State, lost to Colorado State, beat Gonzaga
Butler (0-1): lost to FAU
NC State (0-2): lost to BYU, lost to Ole Miss

REMAINING UNBEATENS (8)
Arizona, Baylor, Clemson, Houston, James Madison, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Princeton

POWER 6 HEAD-TO-HEAD THROUGH WEEK #5
1 Big XII (25-18)
2 SEC (29-25)
3 Big East (24-21)
4 ACC (24-26)
5 Pac 12 (11-16)
6 Big Ten (15-22)

BIG TEN POWER RANKINGS
1 Purdue
2 Illinois
3 Northwestern
4 Wisconsin
5 Ohio State
6 Indiana
7 Michigan State
8 Iowa
9 Michigan
10 Rutgers
11 Minnesota
12 Maryland
13 Penn State
14 Nebraska

SUMMIT LEAGUE POWER RANKINGS
1 South Dakota State
2 North Dakota State
3 North Dakota
4 Oral Roberts
5 Denver
6 St. Thomas
7 South Dakota
8 Kansas City
9 Omaha

GOPHERS & TOMMIES IN THE RANKINGS
NET: Gophers #110, Tommies #223
KenPom: Gophers #89, Tommies #246
Haslametrics: Gophers #87, Tommies #240

 

[Unregistered User]

Dane Fife would be shocked to see this list.

 

[Holy Man]

Just tell me how Maryland got so bad. I’m used to seeing them underperform their talent but falling below the Gophers in the power rankings suggests major free fall.

 

[Go4POV]

Interesting! Thanks for posting. As we all know, injuries can change a team’s season in an instant. The Gophers have a shot at some upsets this year. Remains to be seen whether they can perform on the road. Hope more than six B1G teams dance, though.

 

[TwistingMyMelon]

Just tell me how Maryland got so bad. I’m used to seeing them underperform their talent but falling below the Gophers in the power rankings suggests major free fall.

They lost one of their better players who transferred to Villanova, Donta Scott isn't playing so great so far this season, and their top freshman (RSCI #30) isn't showing as much as our top freshman. After a 1-3 start, they've won four of their last five so they may be improving.

 

[MUgopher32]

Sim

Just tell me how Maryland got so bad. I’m used to seeing them underperform their talent but falling below the Gophers in the power rankings suggests major free fall.

Simple answer is, they are offensively inept and quite literally cannot shoot.

Like you could stick 3 gopherholers around the perimiter and have them hoist shots more productively.

Not even hyperbolic. Look at the stats I think they may barely be over 20%

 

[GophersInIowa]

Sim

Simple answer is, they are offensively inept and quite literally cannot shoot.

Like you could stick 3 gopherholers around the perimiter and have them hoist shots more productively.

Not even hyperbolic. Look at the stats I think they may barely be over 20%

I'm good for banking in at least one a game.

 

[dlnavra]

Thanks for your regular updates on this. It's ambitious to do this so early in the season. Look at this past Sunday afternoon for instance. Colorado really took Miami apart on a neutral court. Sometimes just the eye test may be the way to go, and see if it materializes in late Feb, early March. I'm thinking CU will be in the mix.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Thanks for your regular updates on this. It's ambitious to do this so early in the season. Look at this past Sunday afternoon for instance. Colorado really took Miami apart on a neutral court. Sometimes just the eye test may be the way to go, and see if it materializes in late Feb, early March. I'm thinking CU will be in the mix.

Yep. The Buffs really needed that one for their resume, and they got it. Miami looked like they didn't want to be there. ... the whims of 18-24 year-olds are hard to figure sometimes.

A lot of fluctuation week to week this early in the season. Mid- to late January is when it starts to settle in.

 

[60's Guy]

I'm not guaranteeing it but like I said in the summer I do still think Nebraska could get to 7 or 8th in the Big Ten.

 

[Holy Man]

Yep. The Buffs really needed that one for their resume, and they got it. Miami looked like they didn't want to be there. ... the whims of 18-24 year-olds are hard to figure sometimes.

A lot of fluctuation week to week this early in the season. Mid- to late January is when it starts to settle in.

My unsubstantiated by data intuition is that much of what happens between early and late December can be set aside as nearly irrelevant. Finals. Early winter doldrums. Players getting homesick. All make upsets more likely and it’s a good time for a little guy grabbing a big win. But also have us think the big guys maybe aren’t as good as we thought. There is a reason power 5’s fill December with cupcakes.

 

[jovs]

Big Ten had a big day yesterday, bids might be trending upward.