NIL, Superconferences, and $$$ - Minnesota's best shot at an 8th National Title

[fmlizard]

Under the current setup, Minnesota has basically no chance at winning a national championship. The Gophs are going to be badly outspent and are far enough behind the very best to start with that the ultimate prize is not happening. The Gophers can be very good and compete, but almost zero natty shot.

What if the money gets even bigger, tradition gets tossed out further, and eventually the runaway spending and de facto professionalism of players forces some type of governance like every other American professional league?

It might institute a spending cap. It might institute a draft. Because every team being reasonably competitive is good for TV ratings. And that's what's driving all this, right?

The Gophers (if they remained in the top flight) could suddenly have a national title shot again if a draft and/or spending limit were instituted. Runaway professionalism in college football could end up with the Gophers back in the title conversation.

 

[bonin21]

Good luck with that

 

[60's Guy]

Best scenario for Gophers to win a National Championship: We accept a guy that wants to be a big time college quarterback as a walk-on. His desire is through the roof. He can lead, he can process defenses, he's quick. He can pass but he's too short, too skinny. Nobody wants this guy as bad as he wants us. We take him.

He grows 5 inches, he becomes stronger. Naturally, he has no chance to play for PJ but all our other QB's get hurt and PJ has to play him. Happens game one and we never lose.

Think Trey Lance who nobody wanted as a QB in high school...his greatest rags to riches is getting drafted at the top...but he did win a National Championship.
Rich Gannon begged people to let him play QB, persevered and he's an NFL MVP that led his team to the Super Bowl.
Stetson Bennett...walk-on to legend and a National Championship at Georgia.

Only way it happens at Minnesota...the starting QB gets hurt and Mr Destiny gets an opportunity to give us a story book ending. I don't think it works with a highly recruited QB at MN...too much pressure, too much entitlement, not the same synergy. He won't be surrounded by 5 stars at MN.
The walk-on just goes all Kirby Puckett....jump on boys...I'll carry you home.

Remote? Yup. Best chance? Yup

 

[upnorthkid]

Best scenario for Gophers to win a National Championship: We accept a guy that wants to be a big time college quarterback as a walk-on. His desire is through the roof. He can lead, he can process defenses, he's quick. He can pass but he's too short, too skinny. Nobody wants this guy as bad as he wants us. We take him.

He grows 5 inches, he becomes stronger. Naturally, he has no chance to play for PJ but all our other QB's get hurt and PJ has to play him. Happens game one and we never lose.

Think Trey Lance who nobody wanted as a QB in high school...his greatest rags to riches is getting drafted at the top...but he did win a National Championship.
Rich Gannon begged people to let him play QB, persevered and he's an NFL MVP that led his team to the Super Bowl.
Stetson Bennett...walk-on to legend and a National Championship at Georgia.

Only way it happens at Minnesota...the starting QB gets hurt and Mr Destiny gets an opportunity to give us a story book ending. I don't think it works with a highly recruited QB at MN...too much pressure, too much entitlement, not the same synergy. He won't be surrounded by 5 stars at MN.
The walk-on just goes all Kirby Puckett....jump on boys...I'll carry you home.

Remote? Yup. Best chance? Yup

Wtf did I just read? Though I guess no more bizarre than the original take. The team would need a lucky schedule with a team built right and to hit the big hitters at the right time or hurt (think Bama minus their two stud wrs, but only with more out). That or us investing vastly more in sports are the only ways

 

[Unregistered User]

Wow! An NIL thread. Cool!

 

[Crosby]

The odds of winning a national title are so remote for any program (except Alabama, Clemson, OSU and a few others) that it's hardly worth debating. Winning the new Super BIG title will be really, really difficult. Win that... now play the winner of the Super SEC. The stars would really, really have to align. Let's win the BIG West first then see what happens.

 

[BilldGopher]

Based on how things look to some other future non-B2 programs, I think I'll set my bar at being in the bus as opposed on the outside looking in for a while.

Under the century-long rule of the NCAA, achieving a natty was the goal of goals.

Just surviving the transition to the B2 Universe is looking pretty good right now.

 

[PoockItInfor6]

We are Tanner returning to ‘19 form and Ibrahim having a healthy season away from having a chance this year…

 

[Gophers_4life]

It would be awesome if, say the whole thing turns into a Big Ten-SEC merger with 40-48 teams, then they instituted a salary cap and a draft.

Not sure if that will ever happen, or at least for a long while from now.

 

[Gophers_4life]

I'd say realistically:

if in the next 5-10 years, it so happens somehow that Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St, and USC are all "down" (relatively), then that is the door open for programs like Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin to win the conference and go to the CFP.

That would be like when Washington did it that one year.


I don't know if we can realistic hope for much better, in the current setup.

 

[1983]

We need to focus on beating our rivals first.

 

[FredCoxRocks]

I think our best shot at a NC is if all of the SEC schools, Ohio St., Michigan, PSU, USC, Oregon, Clemson, any school in Florida, are all put on probation in the same year. (Am I missing anyone?)

Oh, and any idea of a draft is ludicrous. You can't dictate where an 18-year old kid has to go to school. Believe it or not, there are many student athletes that go to college for an education.

 

[RogueGopher]

I don't care about national titles, it'll never happen. Just beat Wisconsin and Iowa more often than not.

 

[Gophers_4life]

You can't dictate where an 18-year old kid has to go to school.

You don't need to participate in varsity athletics to attend the school of your choice.

After the career is done, knock yourself out. Go to any school that you desire.

 

[MNVCGUY]

I don't care about national titles, it'll never happen. Just beat Wisconsin and Iowa more often than not.

Anyone who sets their bar for success at the National Title in college football is setting themselves up for disappointment if they are at any school other than a small handful of them.

If you look at the list of champions since the BCS was put in play in the late 90s you can see a pretty small list of helmet schools that have finished on top. The reality is that the vast majority of teams in college football have no shot at winning the NC most years. And it would take the stars aligning perfectly for a team outside of those blue bloods to win it.

College football championship history

Here is a comprehensive list of every college football champion from 1869 to the present day.

www.ncaa.com

 

[GophersInIowa]

Getting to the playoffs I think is a goal that can be achieved by a lot of non helmet programs, even if very unlikely. There's been a few teams make it that I wouldn't call helmet programs: Michigan St, Washington and Cinci. You get a QB that turns into a Heisman hopeful with a good team around him and you can potentially get there. Winning it all after that is going to be extremely difficult of course. Here's who has represented the finals since the playoffs started:
Alabama 6
Clemson 4
Ohio St 2
Georgia 2
LSU 1
Oregon 1

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Gophers best chance of winning a national title - a MN equivalent to John Ruiz comes along, and shells out $25-Million in NIL money to buy the best talent available. Seeing what is happening in MN, some of the best grad transfers in the country decide to transfer to MN.

And the Gophers win a national title.

I don't know how likely that scenario may be, but it's probably the only chance MN will have of actually winning a national championship.

 

[FredCoxRocks]

I think our best shot at a NC is if all of the SEC schools, Ohio St., Michigan, PSU, USC, Oregon, Clemson, any school in Florida, are all put on probation in the same year. (Am I missing anyone?)

Oh, and any idea of a draft is ludicrous. You can't dictate where an 18-year old kid has to go to school. Believe it or not, there are many student athletes that go to college for an education.

You don't need to participate in varsity athletics to attend the school of your choice.

After the career is done, knock yourself out. Go to any school that you desire.

I'm confused. Am I misunderstanding what this "draft" is that people keep bringing up? I have seen this mentioned other places, and now here. I take it to mean that to keep things even and fair, the schools in the super conferences should divide (draft) the players up evenly (high school players and transfer players). This is why I said "You can't dictate where an 18-year old kid has to go to school. Believe it or not, there are many student athletes that go to college for an education."

And to add, some people go to a specific school that specializes in a certain thing that they want to learn and major in.

Someone please clarify what "draft" means.

 

[jonnyganas]

I don't care about national titles, it'll never happen. Just beat Wisconsin and Iowa more often than not.

Win the games, win the West (which starts with beating Iowa and WI), and there's always a chance. But it starts with changing our best every day and winning the games on our schedule.

But, it's pretty fun to dream about national championships

 

[fmlizard]

I'm confused. Am I misunderstanding what this "draft" is that people keep bringing up? I have seen this mentioned other places, and now here. I take it to mean that to keep things even and fair, the schools in the super conferences should divide (draft) the players up evenly (high school players and transfer players). This is why I said "You can't dictate where an 18-year old kid has to go to school. Believe it or not, there are many student athletes that go to college for an education."

And to add, some people go to a specific school that specializes in a certain thing that they want to learn and major in.

Someone please clarify what "draft" means.

The idea from the original post is that given a long enough time frame (10+ years in this case), the increasing professionalism of college-age players ($$$) and the need for some type of new governance of it all could lead down the same path as all other American pro sports leagues - to a draft system and/or a spending cap to promote competitive balance.

You can't dictate where an 18 year old kid goes to school. But if you are paying him a bunch of money to participate in a system that requires him to give that right up, you can make that kid volunteer to do it. Just like paying a kid to join a company or the military at age 18...those also come at the cost of some freedoms. Like all of our sports leagues do with their drafts.

If these changes were to come to pass some day, that could mean the Gophers would have a relatively fungible chance along with all other schools in the top flight. The Vikings have a roughly 1:32 chance of winning the Super Bowl every year, but the Gophers chances of a natty are far less because of far fewer competitive balance rules in CFB. Professionalism and money run amok well beyond today could force those rules and wind up helping the Gophers.

 

[Gophers_4life]

I'm confused. Am I misunderstanding what this "draft" is that people keep bringing up? I have seen this mentioned other places, and now here. I take it to mean that to keep things even and fair, the schools in the super conferences should divide (draft) the players up evenly (high school players and transfer players). This is why I said "You can't dictate where an 18-year old kid has to go to school. Believe it or not, there are many student athletes that go to college for an education."

Sure you can -- as I said, participating in varsity athletics goes above and beyond going to school.

There are already restrictions on eligibility, such as that you only get to play 4 seasons.

By your logic, why should the conference (NCAA, etc.) be allowed to tell a kid who is still a student at the school in year 9 that he is not allowed to participate in athletics?

So, that's already an arbitrary restriction.

And to add, some people go to a specific school that specializes in a certain thing that they want to learn and major in.

As I said, they're free to do that. Go to that school. Specialize in that certain thing.

After your eligibility runs out.

 

[FredCoxRocks]

Sure you can -- as I said, participating in varsity athletics goes above and beyond going to school.

There are already restrictions on eligibility, such as that you only get to play 4 seasons.

By your logic, why should the conference (NCAA, etc.) be allowed to tell a kid who is still a student at the school in year 9 that he is not allowed to participate in athletics?

So, that's already an arbitrary restriction.


As I said, they're free to do that. Go to that school. Specialize in that certain thing.

After your eligibility runs out.

I'm still confused. Are you proposing that a 4-star QB coming out of high school that is really good at math and has high academic aspirations can't go to say, Stanford or Northwestern because Mississippi St. has dibs on him and he must attend classes there? Because that is what this "draft" that I've heard thrown around alludes to. Tell me I'm wrong.

 

[Dakota2]

You don't need to participate in varsity athletics to attend the school of your choice.

After the career is done, knock yourself out. Go to any school that you desire.

We're paying teenagers because nobody should have to work for free. But you think we can then force them to go to a school they don't like or choose for themselves? Dream on.

 

[Dakota2]

We're paying teenagers because nobody should have to work for free. But you think we can then force them to go to a school they don't like or choose for themselves? Dream on.

NIL cap / parity is doable and logical. Draft is neither.

 

[Gophers_4life]

I'm still confused. Are you proposing that a 4-star QB coming out of high school that is really good at math and has high academic aspirations can't go to say, Stanford or Northwestern because Mississippi St. has dibs on him and he must attend classes there?

If he wants to go to Stanford or NW directly out of high school to study math and have high academic aspirations, then he can and should do that.

He doesn't need to play varsity football to go to school there, or anywhere.

There is no such thing as a "right" to play varsity football, anywhere.

 

[Gophers_4life]

But you think we can then force them to go to a school they don't like or choose for themselves?

Of course not. I'm not proposing any such thing.

 

[PMWinSTP]

The odds of winning a national title are so remote for any program (except Alabama, Clemson, OSU and a few others) that it's hardly worth debating. Winning the new Super BIG title will be really, really difficult. Win that... now play the winner of the Super SEC. The stars would really, really have to align. Let's win the BIG West first then see what happens.

Alabama winning five of the last 11 really skews things, but yes, winning it all for all other schools is extremely remote, including Clemson and OSU.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Even in professional leagues with salary caps, a few teams win more than others.

Because they have better GM's, better coaches, make smarter personnel decisions, etc.

That is why Golden State is Golden state and the T-Wolves are the T-Wolves.

There have always been haves and have-nots in college FB. Because some schools have better and smarter AD's and Coaches who make smarter decisions.

and when you establish your reputation as a winning team, players want to be associated with a winning team.

Sure, money helps. But all the money in the world will not turn Bret Bielema into a great coach.
but it can buy a better mobility scooter to get his bloated carcass to the practice field and back.

 

[Dakota2]

Of course not. I'm not proposing any such thing.

That's a draft. No choice.

 

[Gophers_4life]

That's a draft.

By definition, you're wrong.

They would be making a voluntary choice to enter the draft. If they don't want to do that, they're free to go to whatever school they want, and do school. Play on club teams, play rec sports, etc.