Could NIL be deflationary for highly paid coaches?

[fmlizard]

Has anyone considered that NIL could be really deflationary for coaches and drag down their pay? Before, the only way a program or its boosters could legally throw money at winning was to hire expensive coaches or build even more fancy facilities. So the arms race mainly happened in the head coach's wallet.

Now that they can just buy better players openly, with no draft system or any structure at all, really...why not spend all your money on that and get okay coaches, and see if it's really about the Xs and the Os or the Johnnies and the Joes?

 

[Some guy]

Unless revenue is going down, it won’t be

 

[Gophers_4life]

I think to see this, we'd have to get to where the players in the top conferences/division band together in a union and demand X% of the TV revenue.

Then that $100M/year that Minnesota is going to be getting from the Big Ten, suddenly 30,40, maybe 50M of that is being directly pay-to-play to the players on the football and men's basketball teams (women's bball too probably).

 

[Some guy]

I think to see this, we'd have to get to where the players in the top conferences/division band together in a union and demand X% of the TV revenue.

Then that $100M/year that Minnesota is going to be getting from the Big Ten, suddenly 30,40, maybe 50M of that is being directly pay-to-play to the players on the football and men's basketball teams (women's bball too probably).

They can’t unionize they aren’t employees. Which is part of why there will never be direct payments from schools

 

[Gophers_4life]

They can’t unionize they aren’t employees. Which is part of why there will never be direct payments from schools

NW had a vote to unionize a few years ago.

 

[Some guy]

NW had a vote to unionize a few years ago.

It was denied by the NLRB
They tried to unionize and were told they can’t

 

[Gophers_4life]

It was denied by the NLRB
They tried to unionize and were told they can’t

The regional board approved it.

Then it got political and the national board did as they were told to do.


All good. I just think it's a thing that could happen.

 

[Gophers_4life]

Then there is SB-1401 out in California, which is a new bill that requires pay-for-play.

This is the state that gave us NIL in the first place.

 

[Some guy]

The regional board approved it.

Then it got political and the national board did as they were told to do.


All good. I just think it's a thing that could happen.

Unless the supremacy clause goes away the national board is more important than the regional board

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Then there is SB-1401 out in California, which is a new bill that requires pay-for-play.

This is the state that gave us NIL in the first place.

It didn’t pass committee. NIL didn’t directly hurt athletic departments, schools, programs. SB-1401 would have been a bomb going off. The 50% revenue sharing with players would be disastrous and surely plenty of people suddenly found (quasi) amateurism religion again.

Maybe the NCAA stepped in. /s

 

[Gophers_4life]

It didn’t pass committee. NIL didn’t directly hurt athletic departments, schools, programs. SB-1401 would have been a bomb going off. The 50% revenue sharing with players would be disastrous and surely plenty of people suddenly found (quasi) amateurism religion again.

Maybe the NCAA stepped in. /s

Timing isn't right, right now. That's really all it is.

This is coming. It's the last big step.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Timing isn't right, right now. That's really all it is.

This is coming. It's the last big step.

I think it may come through the courts, but yes we’ve already seen there is little public, media sentiment to stop these initiatives anymore - instant transfer, NIL - and now players as employees, collective bargaining, revenue re-distribution, and equal pay detached from economic revenue realities are being pushed. The recent soccer deal highlighted that IIRC men’s soccer revenue is much, much higher compensation and bonus structure for World Cup will be similar. These movements could carry over into a pay for play college model where “equal work for equal pay” has some sound bite traction. Never mind some sports are deep in the red.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Well, on the coaching thing, one could argue that you need the big-time coach/recruiter to attract the big-time athletes who will then receive the big-time NIL money.

Personally, I think that something is going to happen with NIL. Either the NCAA will adopt new guidelines (assuming they hold up to a court challenge) or there will be National legislation.

the current situation is - IMHO - unsustainable. Some wacko Billionaire could literally buy the best players in the country for "his" school, which destroys any notions of an equal playing field and amateurism.

if the current situation continues, then I see college sports splitting into two levels - a "no holds barred" NIL level and a second level with no NIL or self-imposed NIL limits.

what that does to TV contracts and rights, who knows?

in hindsight, the P5 FB and basketball schools should have cut the players in on a piece of the pie when they had a chance. by trying to keep all of the money for themselves, they helped create a situation where they have lost any semblance of control.

 

[60's Guy]

Has anyone considered that NIL could be really deflationary for coaches and drag down their pay? Before, the only way a program or its boosters could legally throw money at winning was to hire expensive coaches or build even more fancy facilities. So the arms race mainly happened in the head coach's wallet.

Now that they can just buy better players openly, with no draft system or any structure at all, really...why not spend all your money on that and get okay coaches, and see if it's really about the Xs and the Os or the Johnnies and the Joes?

The basketball Gophers are experimenting with the okay coach half of your theory and it has a chance to work.

 

[Gophers_4life]

I think it may come through the courts, but yes we’ve already seen there is little public, media sentiment to stop these initiatives anymore - instant transfer, NIL - and now players as employees, collective bargaining, revenue re-distribution, and equal pay detached from economic revenue realities are being pushed. The recent soccer deal highlighted that IIRC men’s soccer revenue is much, much higher compensation and bonus structure for World Cup will be similar. These movements could carry over into a pay for play college model where “equal work for equal pay” has some sound bite traction. Never mind some sports are deep in the red.

True, they are ... but then again college athletics was never a for-profit business.

Even the Texas / Texas A&M (usually the #1 and #2 in the nation, in total revenue) find a way to "spend" every last penny, every year. Or I think they're a couple of a few that actually send money back to the school's accounts.


With media deals in the Big Ten and SEC going to $100M/year per school .... I mean, how much money do you need to spend to be competitive??

There has to be an upper limit. It has to saturate at some point.

Are you gonna buy gold-plated cleats for each player??

 

[Pompous Elitist]

True, they are ... but then again college athletics was never a for-profit business.

Questionable at best.

Even the Texas / Texas A&M (usually the #1 and #2 in the nation, in total revenue) find a way to "spend" every last penny, every year. Or I think they're a couple of a few that actually send money back to the school's accounts.


With media deals in the Big Ten and SEC going to $100M/year per school .... I mean, how much money do you need to spend to be competitive??

Given the NFL, MLB examples the sky is the limit.

There has to be an upper limit. It has to saturate at some point.

Are you gonna buy gold-plated cleats for each player??

Yep, because non-profit.