Gophers #4 seed in Jerry Palm bracketology

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10 days ago i had us as a 5. Seems about right at 4. Hope people remember the very thin line between 4-5's and 8 or 9.
 

A 4 seed would be great. The 12 seed line seems to usually be where the last of the at-large bids go, where you play either a power conference team or a high-tier mid-major, both of which can put up a fight, while 13 seeds are more often the auto-bid winners from mid- and low-major conferences, and likely a bigger drop off in quality than from an 11 to a 12 seed team, or a 13 to a 14 seed. In other words, I think a 13 seed has a good chance to be a substantially easier opponent for us than a 12 seed, and makes a first round win and round of 32 appearance much more likely.

A couple matchups here that don't seem like accidents:

8 Michigan State vs. 9 Virginia. Michigan State knocked Virginia out of the NCAA tournament in both 2014 and 2015, and they were supposed to play this year as part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, but the game was canceled.

3 Missouri vs. 14 Norfolk State. 15 seed Norfolk State upset 2 seed Missouri in 2012.
 
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Cayman said:
A 4 seed would be great. The 12 seed line seems to usually be where the last of the at-large bids go, where you play either a power conference team or a high-tier mid-major, both of which can put up a fight, while 13 seeds are more often the auto-bid winners from mid- and low-major conferences, and likely a bigger drop off in quality than from an 11 to a 12 seed team, or a 13 to a 14 seed. In other words, I think a 13 seed has a good chance to be a substantially easier opponent for us than a 12 seed, and makes a first round win and round of 32 appearance much more likely.

A couple matchups here that don't seem like accidents:

8 Michigan State vs. 9 Virginia. Michigan State knocked Virginia out of the NCAA tournament in both 2014 and 2015, and they were supposed to play this year as part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, but the game was canceled.

3 Missouri vs. 14 Norfolk State. 15 seed Norfolk State upset 2 seed Missouri in 2012.
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Many people want to see the Hauser-Hauser match up but that is not how things are put together. Besides, i would be surprised to see UVA even make it.
 

golf said:
Not sure if this deserves its own thread, but imagine the reaction to a suggestion two weeks ago that we would be in line for a 4 seed.

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I have been looking for at least a #2 seed since we beat Iowa.

I demand satisfaction!
 



5 seed in Lunardi's update. I guess the good news is we likely wont be a 5 seed ha With a tough big ten feels like we get up to a 4 or higher of if we lost a few down in the 7-9 range.

overall a good "problem" to have!
 

Cayman said:
A 4 seed would be great. The 12 seed line seems to usually be where the last of the at-large bids go, where you play either a power conference team or a high-tier mid-major, both of which can put up a fight, while 13 seeds are more often the auto-bid winners from mid- and low-major conferences, and likely a bigger drop off in quality than from an 11 to a 12 seed team, or a 13 to a 14 seed. In other words, I think a 13 seed has a good chance to be a substantially easier opponent for us than a 12 seed, and makes a first round win and round of 32 appearance much more likely.

A couple matchups here that don't seem like accidents:

8 Michigan State vs. 9 Virginia. Michigan State knocked Virginia out of the NCAA tournament in both 2014 and 2015, and they were supposed to play this year as part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, but the game was canceled.

3 Missouri vs. 14 Norfolk State. 15 seed Norfolk State upset 2 seed Missouri in 2012.
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The dreaded 5 seed. Just looked it up and 4 seed loses 21% of time while 5 seed loses 36% in first round. 6 seed loses 37% of time in first round.

Could make an argument that 6 seed is better than 5 seed as wouldnt theoretically meet a 1 seed until the elite 8.
 




leib0039 said:
5 seed in Lunardi's update. I guess the good news is we likely wont be a 5 seed ha With a tough big ten feels like we get up to a 4 or higher of if we lost a few down in the 7-9 range.

overall a good "problem" to have!
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Yeah, he has 10 big ten teams in the tournament. Maryland are Purdue are out.
Purdue is first 4 out and Maryland next 4 out.
 

Gopherfan1000 said:
I remember when we were a #5 seed a few years ago. Total trap game. That Middle Tenn team was probably also deserving of a 7-9 seed, not a 12. Let's avoid the #5 seed, lol. I'll take it but, total trap games!
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They over-seeded us as a 5 when we should have been a 7. But made up for it by giving MTSU a 12 when they should have been a 10.
 

I have a bad feeling that we're going to get Drake if we make the tournament
 

MissouriGopher said:
I have a bad feeling that we're going to get Drake if we make the tournament
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The NCAA loves drama in the tournament. They'd do everything possible to pit Hauser vs Hauser, or Pitino vs Pitino (we would need a really high seed for that). Liam vs his old team would definitely fit that mold.

I watched Drake last night, and don't get me wrong. They have a nice team, but they had an EXTREMELY weak non-conference. According to Kenpom, their non-conference SOS was 309. That doesn't mean I don't respect a perfect record, but they basically haven't been challenged yet.
 



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