CBS: Big Ten expert picks, 2020-21 preview (10. Minnesota)

[BleedGopher]

per CBS:

10

Minnesota

Richard Pitino's third losing season since he took over the Golden Gophers was a tumultuous one. They went 15-16 and lost a whopping seven games by five or fewer points. Of course, there's a fine line between being competitive and winning, but Minnesota was right there all season. Now Pitino, who loses leading scorer Daniel Oturu, gets two of his top three players back in Marcus Carr and Gabe Kalscheur in an effort to get past that hump. This team'll be thin on the front line without Oturu, so look for sophomore Isaiah Ihnen to step into a more prominent role in his second season.

SEC expert picks, 2020-21 preview: Loaded Tennessee to get back on track, tops rebuilding Kentucky

Rick Barnes' Volunteers struggled last season, but a strong core of returning players will be too much for the Wildcats

www.cbssports.com

Go Gophers!!

 

[Biggsohnasty]

Instead of a sarcastic post about how some here will take this is blatant disrespect, I tend to agree. I think the Gophers should be viewed as in this general range in the league ahead of the season.

I think the upside is there for this outfit (assuming Gach is granted a waiver) to contend for a top-half spot in the league and make things interesting. But if looking at the club from an unbiased perspective, they have intriguing talent that hasn't done much on its own or as part of a collection.

 

[SelectionSunday]

 

[CentralGopher]

This team has a bunch of newcomers so hard to pick. Could end up as high as 6-7 or as low as 11-12. 10 seems to be a safe pick here.

 

[bc2211]

I don’t mind where they are being ranked per the outside. But i find this rationale a little lazy. Our front court will be deeper if less spectacular than last year (assuming transfer portal descriptions are reasonably accurate). We had one gem in Oturu and weaknesses elsewhere.

Ihnen will hopefully progress as a emerging player, but I think his points come from the wing, not in the front court.

I think SS has it better, but I think our ceiling is as high as ever with this roster. My do or die year for this regime.

 

[cjbfbp]

I don’t mind where they are being ranked per the outside. But i find this rationale a little lazy. Our front court will be deeper if less spectacular than last year (assuming transfer portal descriptions are reasonably accurate). We had one gem in Oturu and weaknesses elsewhere.

Ihnen will hopefully progress as a emerging player, but I think his points come from the wing, not in the front court.

Yes, this should be Pitino's deepest front court with 6 front-court players (excluding Curry) on the roster. Of course, two of the most important pieces are transfers which people miss if they don't follow that stuff closely (which I suspect many of these writers don't).

Ihnen's tendency to shoot almost exclusively from the 3 pt line for most of last year was a little distressing but he started to change towards the end of the season and the results were promising. He finally took a few drives to the bucket near the end and he looked pretty good doing it. He showed late last season that he can be an inside force on both ends.

 

[JoshuaT81]

I agree with most that this is Pitino's deepest team. One thing that remains to be seen for me is are there any stars on this team that can rise to certain occasions when just good players are not just enough.

 

[Biggsohnasty]

While I wouldn't classify Carr as a 'star', I think he's got 'take over stretches of a game' ability. The problem last year was that he played huge minutes, but also was tasked with initiating far too much of the team's offense.

If they have better balance in terms of shot-creation with Gach and Mashburn plus hopefully some improvement from Kalscheur and Williams, maybe the load won't be so heavy for Carr, and he can turn it on a little more late in games when it is winning time.

 

[cjbfbp]

While I wouldn't classify Carr as a 'star', I think he's got 'take over stretches of a game' ability. The problem last year was that he played huge minutes, but also was tasked with initiating far too much of the team's offense.

If they have better balance in terms of shot-creation with Gach and Mashburn plus hopefully some improvement from Kalscheur and Williams, maybe the load won't be so heavy for Carr, and he can turn it on a little more late in games when it is winning time.

I think we can say that Carr is now a star at the Big Ten level. I agree that too much of the load fell on only two players last year. As great as Oturu was, he might have been even better if he didn't have to go against two or three players so often. Last year's team just had too many dead spots on the offensive end.

 

[Gopherfan84]

I think we can say that Carr is now a star at the Big Ten level. I agree that too much of the load fell on only two players last year. As great as Oturu was, he might have been even better if he didn't have to go against two or three players so often. Last year's team just had too many dead spots on the offensive end.

I don't think the narrative that we were too reliant on two players is true offensively. The only thing Carr, Oturo, and Pitino were really guilty of imo was that they couldn't win and lose games by a large enough margin to sit out more like the others on the list before. Most good teams are reliant on two guys offensively.

	FGA Att	Team FGA Total	Total Minutes played	Total FGA %	Total FGA % / Min. played	Top 2 Total FGA % / Min. played	Top 3 Total FGA % / Min. played	Top 4 Total FGA % / Min. played
MN
Oturo	423	1871	1050	22.61%	0.0002153164847	0.0004025226295	0.0005775730731	0.0007242273991
Carr	400	1871	1142	21.38%	0.0001872061449
Gabe	338	1871	1032	18.07%	0.0001750504435
Peyton	225	1871	820	12.03%	0.000146654326
Demir	204	1871	770	10.90%	0.000141600783
Ihnen	61	1871	240	3.26%	0.000135845359
Tre	110	1871	503	5.88%	0.0001168828823
MSU
Cash	413	1833	980	22.53%	0.000229911932	0.0004465022031	0.000610990767	0.000769902062
Watts	239	1833	602	13.04%	0.000216590271
Till	300	1833	995	16.37%	0.0001644885639
Henry	254	1833	872	13.86%	0.000158911295
Brown	165	1833	678	9.00%	0.0001327675024
Wiskey
Reuvers	328	1718	814	19.09%	0.0002345450541	0.0004623124277	0.0006330679187	0.000799374255
Potter	144	1718	368	8.38%	0.0002277673736
King	159	1718	542	9.25%	0.000170755491
Ford	222	1718	777	12.92%	0.0001663063363
Trice	274	1718	998	15.95%	0.0001598073913
Davison	233	1718	927	13.56%	0.0001463029312
Pritzl	211	1718	840	12.28%	0.0001462109873
Iowa
Garza	530	1868	991	28.37%	0.0002863026338	0.0004661741541	0.0006453269369	0.0008192614911
Bohannon	84	1868	250	4.50%	0.0001798715203
Wieskamp	337	1868	1007	18.04%	0.0001791527828
Toussaint	180	1868	554	9.64%	0.0001739345542
Kriener	169	1868	566	9.05%	0.0001598429189
Fredrick	180	1868	717	9.64%	0.0001343929471
Evelyn	100	1868	567	5.35%	0.0000944147982
McCaffery	160	1868	933	8.57%	0.00009180397098
Duke		1957
Carey Jr.	345	1957	772	17.63%	0.0002283552334	0.0004242774046	0.0006146545602	0.0007959463686
OConnell	148	1957	386	7.56%	0.0001959221712
Jones	383	1957	1028	19.57%	0.0001903771555
Hurt	226	1957	637	11.55%	0.0001812918084
Stanley	270	1957	796	13.80%	0.000173324466
Moore Jr.	154	1957	600	7.87%	0.0001311531255
Baylor
Butler	397	1778	911	22.33%	0.0002450983419	0.000429703275	0.0005844804395	0.0007331887028
Teague	300	1778	914	16.87%	0.0001846049331
Bandoo	213	1778	774	11.98%	0.0001547771645
Mitchiell	257	1778	972	14.45%	0.0001487082633
Gillespie	202	1778	851	11.36%	0.0001335027011
Virginia
Diakite	314	1515	985	20.73%	0.0002104169808	0.0003794405057	0.0005472367646	0.0007131420445
Key	232	1515	906	15.31%	0.0001690235249
Morsell	166	1515	653	10.96%	0.000167796259
Clark	280	1515	1114	18.48%	0.0001659052799
Huff	184	1515	749	12.15%	0.0001621523968
Woldentensae	187	1515	785	12.34%	0.0001572386538
Strattmann	98	1515	515	6.47%	0.0001256047935

As a duo, Carr and Oturo took less shot attempts per minute than any of the other teams listed except Virginia.

 

[Biggsohnasty]

I don't think the narrative that we were too reliant on two players is true offensively. The only thing Carr, Oturo, and Pitino were really guilty of imo was that they couldn't win and lose games by a large enough margin to sit out more like the others on the list before. Most good teams are reliant on two guys offensively.

	FGA Att	Team FGA Total	Total Minutes played	Total FGA %	Total FGA % / Min. played	Top 2 Total FGA % / Min. played	Top 3 Total FGA % / Min. played	Top 4 Total FGA % / Min. played
MN
Oturo	423	1871	1050	22.61%	0.0002153164847	0.0004025226295	0.0005775730731	0.0007242273991
Carr	400	1871	1142	21.38%	0.0001872061449
Gabe	338	1871	1032	18.07%	0.0001750504435
Peyton	225	1871	820	12.03%	0.000146654326
Demir	204	1871	770	10.90%	0.000141600783
Ihnen	61	1871	240	3.26%	0.000135845359
Tre	110	1871	503	5.88%	0.0001168828823
MSU
Cash	413	1833	980	22.53%	0.000229911932	0.0004465022031	0.000610990767	0.000769902062
Watts	239	1833	602	13.04%	0.000216590271
Till	300	1833	995	16.37%	0.0001644885639
Henry	254	1833	872	13.86%	0.000158911295
Brown	165	1833	678	9.00%	0.0001327675024
Wiskey
Reuvers	328	1718	814	19.09%	0.0002345450541	0.0004623124277	0.0006330679187	0.000799374255
Potter	144	1718	368	8.38%	0.0002277673736
King	159	1718	542	9.25%	0.000170755491
Ford	222	1718	777	12.92%	0.0001663063363
Trice	274	1718	998	15.95%	0.0001598073913
Davison	233	1718	927	13.56%	0.0001463029312
Pritzl	211	1718	840	12.28%	0.0001462109873
Iowa
Garza	530	1868	991	28.37%	0.0002863026338	0.0004661741541	0.0006453269369	0.0008192614911
Bohannon	84	1868	250	4.50%	0.0001798715203
Wieskamp	337	1868	1007	18.04%	0.0001791527828
Toussaint	180	1868	554	9.64%	0.0001739345542
Kriener	169	1868	566	9.05%	0.0001598429189
Fredrick	180	1868	717	9.64%	0.0001343929471
Evelyn	100	1868	567	5.35%	0.0000944147982
McCaffery	160	1868	933	8.57%	0.00009180397098
Duke		1957
Carey Jr.	345	1957	772	17.63%	0.0002283552334	0.0004242774046	0.0006146545602	0.0007959463686
OConnell	148	1957	386	7.56%	0.0001959221712
Jones	383	1957	1028	19.57%	0.0001903771555
Hurt	226	1957	637	11.55%	0.0001812918084
Stanley	270	1957	796	13.80%	0.000173324466
Moore Jr.	154	1957	600	7.87%	0.0001311531255
Baylor
Butler	397	1778	911	22.33%	0.0002450983419	0.000429703275	0.0005844804395	0.0007331887028
Teague	300	1778	914	16.87%	0.0001846049331
Bandoo	213	1778	774	11.98%	0.0001547771645
Mitchiell	257	1778	972	14.45%	0.0001487082633
Gillespie	202	1778	851	11.36%	0.0001335027011
Virginia
Diakite	314	1515	985	20.73%	0.0002104169808	0.0003794405057	0.0005472367646	0.0007131420445
Key	232	1515	906	15.31%	0.0001690235249
Morsell	166	1515	653	10.96%	0.000167796259
Clark	280	1515	1114	18.48%	0.0001659052799
Huff	184	1515	749	12.15%	0.0001621523968
Woldentensae	187	1515	785	12.34%	0.0001572386538
Strattmann	98	1515	515	6.47%	0.0001256047935

As a duo, Carr and Oturo took less shot attempts per minute than any of the other teams listed except Virginia.

That is good stuff.

I doubt there's a stat for it (at least that we can access as normal fans) but I'd be curious to see where Carr ranked in the league when it comes to time of possession, dribbles and potential assisted passes. Because aside from Winston, I'd bet he was right up there at the top.

Carr also only shot like 38 percent from the field. So if he's going to have the ball in his hands and the keys to the whole things, you want the shooting percentages to be a little higher.

And you are right in that relying on two top shelf guys isn't uncommon. The big difference was that guys 3-7 for us were terrible where other teams get a lot better results from their depth.

 

[60's Guy]

The biggest criticism for me of Pitino is Ihnen”s 240 total minutes. He needed more minutes earlier. Seemed wtf that he finally got his breakthrough in minutes when mom came to visit.
Our shots should be interesting this year. We potentially have the most firepower of all time Pitino on this roster. Who will rise up and lead? Carr will likely take the most shots. If Gabe can find his stroke is he second or is Robbins or Gach? How far up the ladder does Ihnen go? How good is Mashburn?
That’s 6 potential legit scorers imo!!! Tre will improve. Mutaf is a total wildcard for me. Johnson hopefully is steady. That’s 9 guys. A bionic Curry could be 10 candidates you have to account for defensively.

 

[Gopherfan84]

That is good stuff.

I doubt there's a stat for it (at least that we can access as normal fans) but I'd be curious to see where Carr ranked in the league when it comes to time of possession, dribbles and potential assisted passes. Because aside from Winston, I'd bet he was right up there at the top.

Carr also only shot like 38 percent from the field. So if he's going to have the ball in his hands and the keys to the whole things, you want the shooting percentages to be a little higher.

And you are right in that relying on two top shelf guys isn't uncommon. The big difference was that guys 3-7 for us were terrible where other teams get a lot better results from their depth.

I'm not in the loop as I used to be, but many if not most D1 programs used to use Synergy that would break down usage. I do believe many of the best coaches do break down possession of the basketball by an individual compared to their points. These rabbit holes can lead and weave all over.
My point is I don't criticize Pitino for his usage rates and I think he does a good job of getting the ball in his best players hands the most. I don't always enjoy how he does it (the weave for example), but I can at least respect and see what he's doing and why he does it.

I think that to win more there needs to be one if not both of these two things. Our top two players need to be better and we need to defend significantly better. Last year we had a good top guy (Oturo), but our 2nd guys needed to be a little better more consistently. I will argue with you on our 3rd guy. By metrics and the other things he did specifically defensively and spacing the floor offensively (even though he didn't shoot well by his standard). Guys 4-7 we can be in full agreement on lol, unless they had all been above average defenders, then we win at least 3 more games last year. I think considering that guys 4-7 weren't as good as I had hoped, I think it more than justifies Carr's usage offensively.

 

[Gopherfan84]

The biggest criticism for me of Pitino is Ihnen”s 240 total minutes. He needed more minutes earlier. Seemed wtf that he finally got his breakthrough in minutes when mom came to visit.
Our shots should be interesting this year. We potentially have the most firepower of all time Pitino on this roster. Who will rise up and lead? Carr will likely take the most shots. If Gabe can find his stroke is he second or is Robbins or Gach? How far up the ladder does Ihnen go? How good is Mashburn?
That’s 6 potential legit scorers imo!!! Tre will improve. Mutaf is a total wildcard for me. Johnson hopefully is steady. That’s 9 guys. A bionic Curry could be 10 candidates you have to account for defensively.

I think with Ihnen it was a combo of being hurt and being a freshman last year at the start of the year. I am also very very interested in seeing how shots are taken this year too. I think Carr's minutes will go down because I think we will win more and I think Mash/Gach will be able to handle some lead guard duties in our offense. I think this will hopefully will be a positive for Carr shooting wise. I also think if Johnson and Gach attack the rim as well as advertised Gabe will get better inside out 3's which are his bread and butter and you'll see his percentages go back up. I've never had much of an issue with our teams abilities to score, I want to see this team defend in the top half of the conference. If they do that, they will be in the top 6 easily and scratching at the big 3 of Iowa, Wiskey, and MSU.

 

[60's Guy]

“I think considering that guys 4-7 weren't as good as I had hoped, I think it more than justifies Carr's usage offensively.”
Definitely, there was no choice. It could fall apart but I don’t think going into the season that it’s not impossible that 10 guys could be better than 4-7 were last year.
Clearly, whoever emerges 4-7 should be dramatically better this year....as in winning the close games and making more games wins by greater margins. We have some offensive talent.
Heck, whoever emerges top 3.

 

[cjbfbp]

I don't think the narrative that we were too reliant on two players is true offensively. The only thing Carr, Oturo, and Pitino were really guilty of imo was that they couldn't win and lose games by a large enough margin to sit out more like the others on the list before. Most good teams are reliant on two guys offensively.

	FGA Att	Team FGA Total	Total Minutes played	Total FGA %	Total FGA % / Min. played	Top 2 Total FGA % / Min. played	Top 3 Total FGA % / Min. played	Top 4 Total FGA % / Min. played
MN
Oturo	423	1871	1050	22.61%	0.0002153164847	0.0004025226295	0.0005775730731	0.0007242273991
Carr	400	1871	1142	21.38%	0.0001872061449
Gabe	338	1871	1032	18.07%	0.0001750504435
Peyton	225	1871	820	12.03%	0.000146654326
Demir	204	1871	770	10.90%	0.000141600783
Ihnen	61	1871	240	3.26%	0.000135845359
Tre	110	1871	503	5.88%	0.0001168828823
MSU
Cash	413	1833	980	22.53%	0.000229911932	0.0004465022031	0.000610990767	0.000769902062
Watts	239	1833	602	13.04%	0.000216590271
Till	300	1833	995	16.37%	0.0001644885639
Henry	254	1833	872	13.86%	0.000158911295
Brown	165	1833	678	9.00%	0.0001327675024
Wiskey
Reuvers	328	1718	814	19.09%	0.0002345450541	0.0004623124277	0.0006330679187	0.000799374255
Potter	144	1718	368	8.38%	0.0002277673736
King	159	1718	542	9.25%	0.000170755491
Ford	222	1718	777	12.92%	0.0001663063363
Trice	274	1718	998	15.95%	0.0001598073913
Davison	233	1718	927	13.56%	0.0001463029312
Pritzl	211	1718	840	12.28%	0.0001462109873
Iowa
Garza	530	1868	991	28.37%	0.0002863026338	0.0004661741541	0.0006453269369	0.0008192614911
Bohannon	84	1868	250	4.50%	0.0001798715203
Wieskamp	337	1868	1007	18.04%	0.0001791527828
Toussaint	180	1868	554	9.64%	0.0001739345542
Kriener	169	1868	566	9.05%	0.0001598429189
Fredrick	180	1868	717	9.64%	0.0001343929471
Evelyn	100	1868	567	5.35%	0.0000944147982
McCaffery	160	1868	933	8.57%	0.00009180397098
Duke		1957
Carey Jr.	345	1957	772	17.63%	0.0002283552334	0.0004242774046	0.0006146545602	0.0007959463686
OConnell	148	1957	386	7.56%	0.0001959221712
Jones	383	1957	1028	19.57%	0.0001903771555
Hurt	226	1957	637	11.55%	0.0001812918084
Stanley	270	1957	796	13.80%	0.000173324466
Moore Jr.	154	1957	600	7.87%	0.0001311531255
Baylor
Butler	397	1778	911	22.33%	0.0002450983419	0.000429703275	0.0005844804395	0.0007331887028
Teague	300	1778	914	16.87%	0.0001846049331
Bandoo	213	1778	774	11.98%	0.0001547771645
Mitchiell	257	1778	972	14.45%	0.0001487082633
Gillespie	202	1778	851	11.36%	0.0001335027011
Virginia
Diakite	314	1515	985	20.73%	0.0002104169808	0.0003794405057	0.0005472367646	0.0007131420445
Key	232	1515	906	15.31%	0.0001690235249
Morsell	166	1515	653	10.96%	0.000167796259
Clark	280	1515	1114	18.48%	0.0001659052799
Huff	184	1515	749	12.15%	0.0001621523968
Woldentensae	187	1515	785	12.34%	0.0001572386538
Strattmann	98	1515	515	6.47%	0.0001256047935

As a duo, Carr and Oturo took less shot attempts per minute than any of the other teams listed except Virginia.

That may be true if you're looking at shooting attempts but looking at points scored and offensive efficiency would be a different story. Gabe may have shot a lot but he had a bad offensive year overall. Willis and Demir (fair enough for a grad transfer) were below average starters. Only Ihnen impressed off the bench and that wasn't until late in the season. In short, Minnesota had only two good players for most of the year.

 

[Gopherfan84]

That may be true if you're looking at shooting attempts but looking at points scored and offensive efficiency would be a different story. Gabe may have shot a lot but he had a bad offensive year overall. Willis and Demir (fair enough for a grad transfer) were below average starters. Only Ihnen impressed off the bench and that wasn't until late in the season. In short, Minnesota had only two good players for most of the year.

Which is why I didn’t feel we were over reliant on them or overusing them. I thinks shots were divided up more than fairly.

 

[tmvander]

I just really hope this basketball season isn't a way for Richard to have a "hold my beer" moment with PJ.