Next year

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Here is a realistic best case scenario I'm predicting for next year:
Starters:
Curry: We need meaningful minutes out of him. He reproduces Oturu's shooting range, if not his inside game
Ihnen - he takes the biggest leap next year and is a major contributor
Kalscheur - FT% and 3P% need to improve
Mashburn - gives us a little spark, manages to score something like 8 ppg?
Carr - becomes more consistent. He needs to become the man next year.

Play small ball, run the floor and shoot a lot.

Primary Bench:
Omersa - gives us 20 minutes a night at the 4/5. We go small ball with him as the post. Maybe he can develop a mid range game?
Willis - provides some scoring punch off the bench
Williams - continues to provide energy and D. Needs to improve from being a 28% FG. His 3P% was 27%, so hopefully it was just a small sample size and getting adjusted to B10.

We'll see:
Freeman - Can't teach size! Hopefully can give us 10-15 mins when Omersa/Curry are in foul trouble or hurt. Maybe we see a big jump and he starts.
Martice Mitchell - no idea, sounds pretty raw. Best case scenario is a development curve like Ihnen
Greenlee - wouldn't be surprised if he transferred.

Recruiting:
Oturu scholarship - ideally a grad transfer big man since we are so thin and unproven there. I am not optimistic we can get anyone of substance. Maybe somebody sees the success Oturu had here and the lack of a replacement and is drawn to the opportunity.
Rudrud scholarship - high school spring recruit, no expectations of contributions this year unless it's Walton
 

eker0016 said:
Any chance Omersa could play some more minutes as our post?
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His energy on D and rebounds might just be the best option. Hope Curry can step up, but we can't depend on that. Ihnen in there too of course.
 

eker0016 said:
Recruiting:
Oturu scholarship - ideally a grad transfer big man since we are so thin and unproven there. I am not optimistic we can get anyone of substance. Maybe somebody sees the success Oturu had here and the lack of a replacement and is drawn to the opportunity.
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The opportunity is to come in and be a legit starting post on a Big Ten team. That alone, even if it were NW or Nebraska, is worth something to someone good.

Just hope the right opportunity comes along for us.
 

eker0016 said:
Here is a realistic best case scenario I'm predicting for next year:
Starters:
Curry: We need meaningful minutes out of him. He reproduces Oturu's shooting range, if not his inside game
Ihnen - he takes the biggest leap next year and is a major contributor
Kalscheur - FT% and 3P% need to improve
Mashburn - gives us a little spark, manages to score something like 8 ppg?
Carr - becomes more consistent. He needs to become the man next year.

Play small ball, run the floor and shoot a lot.

Primary Bench:
Omersa - gives us 20 minutes a night at the 4/5. We go small ball with him as the post. Maybe he can develop a mid range game?
Willis - provides some scoring punch off the bench
Williams - continues to provide energy and D. Needs to improve from being a 28% FG. His 3P% was 27%, so hopefully it was just a small sample size and getting adjusted to B10.

We'll see:
Freeman - Can't teach size! Hopefully can give us 10-15 mins when Omersa/Curry are in foul trouble or hurt. Maybe we see a big jump and he starts.
Martice Mitchell - no idea, sounds pretty raw. Best case scenario is a development curve like Ihnen
Greenlee - wouldn't be surprised if he transferred.

Recruiting:
Oturu scholarship - ideally a grad transfer big man since we are so thin and unproven there. I am not optimistic we can get anyone of substance. Maybe somebody sees the success Oturu had here and the lack of a replacement and is drawn to the opportunity.
Rudrud scholarship - high school spring recruit, no expectations of contributions this year unless it's Walton
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Nice summary.
I am very optimistic on Mashburn. Pitino's history on signing top 100 guys that contribute year 1 is quite good and he comes to us as a guy who has competed at a high level and has a college body. His dad, obviously was a pro and you can bet he has access to the best training this spring. The only concern with him starting alongside Carr is that is a really short lineup.
I am higher on Freeman than a lot of people here. I think he makes big strides and gives us 20 minutes. This is going to make people crazy but I think Ihnen may add muscle and play out at the high post some where Oturu was in the offense. He is so long that he get's his hands on a ton of rebounds even as slight as he is now.
Mitchell has the raw materials and skills but he has to be treated as a wild card. If he were ready, he changes the look with all the length we could put in the lineup.
I'd like to see Walton and a grad transfer or juco big. Two wings if we have a transfer out.
 


MplsGopher said:
The opportunity is to come in and be a legit starting post on a Big Ten team. That alone, even if it were NW or Nebraska, is worth something to someone good.

Just hope the right opportunity comes along for us.
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The staff can surely sell the development that Oturu has made under them.
 

bga1 said:
I'd like to see Walton and a grad transfer or juco big. Two wings if we have a transfer out.
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My only thing with a grad transfer from a P6 is ... unless it's Duke/Kansas/Kentucky, and it won't be .... why wasn't the guy good enough to be the starter or the presumed starter, there?

So that would point to mid- or low-major grad transfers, looking to try out a bigger stage, or JUCO, as the better and more likely option to me.
 

MplsGopher said:
The opportunity is to come in and be a legit starting post on a Big Ten team. That alone, even if it were NW or Nebraska, is worth something to someone good.

Just hope the right opportunity comes along for us.
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I agree, but we had nearly an identical situation last year. We lost a 4 year starting B10 1st team PF on an NCAA tournament team and we had significant interest from desirable players:

Tommy Flanagan said:
I have been able to verify one of the grad transfer forwards. Multiple sources have said we have been in contact with Shakur Juiston. Unfortunately, so has the rest of the country. Hopefully his relationship with Jeter will carry some weight. There are no concerns about his injured knee. He will be cleared in the near future for full workouts. One person I talked to is certain we will get strong consideration from Juiston
I have not found a second source to the second GT forward. The person I talked to seemed positive the Gophers had interest and a connection, but I can't find one. The second forward is Alihan Demir.
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We obviously ended up with Demir who played a lot of minutes. Juiston averaged 8 ppg and 6 rpg for Oregon. IMO the best we could hope for in a grad transfer is a role player, not an impact player. I think we definitely have to pursue it but I am less hopeful than I was last year.
 

Who were the best Centers in a Mid- or Low- major schools that have been there for at least three years, and thus could realistically grad transfer?

I know we can't reach out to such guys first. They have to decide to go into the portal. But I would be curious who such players are.

I'd say Queta at Utah State, but he has only been there two years. Maybe next year he'll come with Craig Smith, but that doesn't do us any good in 2020-21.
 




At this point I would actually consider taking a traditional sit-out transfer. Pitino has a pretty good record of finding talent and productivity. Carr is a home run, Reggie Lynch was huge until the incident, Joey King got a waiver but was a contributor, Zach Lofton obviously didn't work out here, but he actually saw an NBA roster for a cup of coffee. Willis was a solid contributor this year. I actually liked what we got out of Stockman when we needed him but IMO he played less of a role than anticipated because Oturu was such a stud.

Pitino probably wouldn't because he knows this year is do or die. Just a thought.
 

bga1 said:
I am higher on Freeman than a lot of people here. I think he makes big strides and gives us 20 minutes. This is going to make people crazy but I think Ihnen may add muscle and play out at the high post some where Oturu was in the offense.
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I just don't know what to expect from Freeman since we saw so little. And his high school recruiting profile was so odd.

I have super high hopes for Ihnen last year. It was impressive to me that he stepped up in the toughest stretch of the season after barely playing. I wrote him off after his injuries and lack of PT in the non-conference. I think he is going to take a huge leap next year.
 





MplsGopher said:
Will he come here without a guaranteed starting role?
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I think that the best any coach can offer is: "We believe you have a great chance to be in the starting lineup as a frosh if you play hard, work hard this summer and keep your studies in order." There are no guarantees. To me, if he watched us last season he would easily see the opportunity. We need length defense and shooting at the three spot, badly.

Gabe, Walton, Ihnen and Carr all on the floor at the same time is a lot of solid shooters on the floor!
 

bga1 said:
Whether one likes that the coach returns or not we now know what the situation looks like. Assuming that Oturu is gone here's what we have:

Curry/Freeman
Ihnen/ Omersa/Mitchell
Williams/Willis
Gabe/Mashburn
Carr/Greenlee

Needs:
1. Recruiting: Walton, a juco or grad transfer center and an athletic wing who can defend and is a decent shooter
2. Existing recruits: Mashburn needs to be ready to play, and I hope Mitchell surprises by adding offseason strength
3. Development: Ihnen needs to become an inside threat and have a great offseason for skills and strength as Oturu did last summer. Freeman needs to have a big summer of development.
4. A little bit of fortune: We can't depend on Curry, but a nice comeback would be awesome. Cannot build a roster expecting that though. That cannot be an excuse for a third time.
5. Coach: needs to set the expectation now that we are going to be the best defensive team in the league next year. It has to be a mindset that we are going to get it done that way. He needs to take a hard look at where he didn't make adjustments this year and he needs to build a team with depth next year
6. Gabe : will need to find his shooting again in addition to the other things he does so well.

I don't see gloom and doom. I see opportunity.
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Yep, we have the opportunity to not be 12th in the B1G. We might be better, we might be worse, but we don't have to be 12th...
I'm not excited for next season.
 



bga1 said:
The staff can surely sell the development that Oturu has made under them.
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Listened to walton on the scoop last night and he commented on the development of oturu carr and kalscheur being a positive
 


bga1 said:
I think that the best any coach can offer is: "We believe you have a great chance to be in the starting lineup as a frosh if you play hard, work hard this summer and keep your studies in order." There are no guarantees. To me, if he watched us last season he would easily see the opportunity. We need length defense and shooting at the three spot, badly.

Gabe, Walton, Ihnen and Carr all on the floor at the same time is a lot of solid shooters on the floor!
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Imagine throwing Ihnen at the 5 from time to time. Gabe, Carr, Willis, (Mashburn/Walton)?. 5 Shooters. Get up and down the floor!
 


bga1 said:
My bad. I miscounted. You are correct - if Oturu leaves we have two. I guess I have had it in my mind that a player is going to transfer and we would have 3. But you are right.
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At bare minimum, Greenlee won’t be here next season. He sees the writing on the wall. So with Oturu’s expected departure that’s at least 3 schollies available. And I suspect that won’t be it.
 

SelectionSunday said:
At bare minimum, Greenlee won’t be here next season. He sees the writing on the wall. So with Oturu’s expected departure that’s at least 3 schollies available. And I suspect that won’t be it.
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Who else do you think could be a candidate to leave besides Greenlee? Here is some rank speculation:
  • Freeman has a massive opportunity for playing time so unless the staff encourages him to leave you'd think he would stay.
  • Willis could grad transfer I guess if he is unhappy or worried about minutes.
  • I would be surprised if MN guys Gabe or Jarvis transferred (although Jarvis had his minutes cut the last 1.5 months of the season, so maybe there is something there)
  • Eric Curry medically retires?
  • Ihnen's star was growing here so I would be surprised if he left to sit out a season, but you would think other high majors would be very interested if he did transfer.
  • Tre Williams showed some promise and seems to have a future here, but at the same time is not such a desirable guy that other high major programs would want him to sit out a year.
 

eker0016 said:
Who else do you think could be a candidate to leave besides Greenlee? Here is some rank speculation:
  • Freeman has a massive opportunity for playing time so unless the staff encourages him to leave you'd think he would stay.
  • Willis could grad transfer I guess if he is unhappy or worried about minutes.
  • I would be surprised if MN guys Gabe or Jarvis transferred (although Jarvis had his minutes cut the last 1.5 months of the season, so maybe there is something there)
  • Eric Curry medically retires?
  • Ihnen's star was growing here so I would be surprised if he left to sit out a season, but you would think other high majors would be very interested if he did transfer.
  • Tre Williams showed some promise and seems to have a future here, but at the same time is not such a desirable guy that other high major programs would want him to sit out a year.
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I would be a little surprised if one of these left. Part of Coyle's evaluation had to be his sense of the stability of the roster and their respect for Pitino. If he sensed there was problems with the roster sticking together or some loss of respect for Pitino, in addition to the losing end to the year, I think he would have moved on, even with the virus situation. Curry is going to hang in there unless he gets another injury, then I would think he'd think about hanging it up. The fact that Pitino is here probably means that Coyle likes the reports on the incoming recruits, like what he hears about the kids on the roster and likes where Pitino and staff sit on spring recruiting.
 

I wish we had Matz for next season!

Here is how I expect to see the team start out next year:

PG - Carr
SG - Kalesheur
SF - Walton (if he signs) Williams (if he doesn't)
PF - Ihnen
C - Either Freeman or Omersa - whichever can provide a better defensive presence while curry gets his legs.
6th man - Mashburn
7 - Willis
Front Court B/U - Curry
 

bga1 said:
I would be a little surprised if one of these left. Part of Coyle's evaluation had to be his sense of the stability of the roster and their respect for Pitino. If he sensed there was problems with the roster sticking together or some loss of respect for Pitino, in addition to the losing end to the year, I think he would have moved on, even with the virus situation. Curry is going to hang in there unless he gets another injury, then I would think he'd think about hanging it up. The fact that Pitino is here probably means that Coyle likes the reports on the incoming recruits, like what he hears about the kids on the roster and likes where Pitino and staff sit on spring recruiting.
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I'm not so sure on that one. I think the virus quarintine had a major impact on Coyle's decision. The world, including college basketball, is at a standstill. Not likely a coach with much character is going to abandon his team and university in a crisis either. There was little chance of Coyle bringing in a current A grade experienced head coach in this environment. He may have gotten an assistant to move if that was on the radar. Nothing in terms of player movement in the off season would surprise me.
 

bga1 said:
I would be a little surprised if one of these left.
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I would also be surprised. SelectionSunday said he suspected that Greenlee/Oturu would not be our only departures so I am trying to brainstorm who else that could be.
 

Question - thinking out loud?

Does the NCAA adjust recruiting periods/signing dates due to corona? If there are schools who were counting on landing a couple of Spring recruits/transfers, they could be SOL if this thing goes on long enough.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Question - thinking out loud?

Does the NCAA adjust recruiting periods/signing dates due to corona? If there are schools who were counting on landing a couple of Spring recruits/transfers, they could be SOL if this thing goes on long enough.
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Spring recruiting period is pretty long, until mid or even late May I think. Unless effective quarantine continues into May, I doubt there is any adjustments. It will create a scramble to get visits in and such no matter what, though.
 

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