From ESPN's Bill Connelly:
Let's talk about the national title race. There are 13 primary title contenders at this point: nine unbeaten power-conference teams, plus four one-loss programs with at least a 1% chance at the ring, per the Football Power Index (FPI). Let's walk through the primary weaknesses each team has to overcome -- the "ifs" it takes to make each team a lead contender for the College Football Playoff -- to see what it tells us about how the race could play out.
Minnesota (6-0)
SP+ ranking: 17
FPI ranking: 29
FPI national title odds: <0.1%
If ... this October renaissance is real.
After skating by early in the season and briefly falling to 50th in SP+, the Gophers beat Illinois and Nebraska by a combined 74-24 the past two weeks and have surged to 17th in SP+. The running game the Golden Gophers have been trying to establish all season has ignited (Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks in these two games: 560 combined yards).
Minnesota will have every chance in the world to prove itself, facing Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin in November. But the new Gophers have to be the permanent Gophers.
If ... the run game in particular is permanent.
Despite these two brilliant games, Minnesota still ranks only 59th in rushing marginal efficiency and 85th in rushing marginal explosiveness.
If ... opponents fall off schedule a bit more.
Led by All-America candidate Antoine Winfield Jr., the Gophers' defense is brilliant on passing downs. But that matters only if you can force them, and Minnesota ranks only 95th in standard downs marginal efficiency.
If ... place-kicking, again.
The Gophers are unproven at best in this regard. Freshman Michael Lantz is just 4-for-6 on FGs and has roven at best in this regard. Freshman Michael Lantz is just 4-for-6 on FGs and has been asked to attempt just one over 40 yards (he missed it).
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...ns-ohio-state-alabama-every-playoff-contender
Let's talk about the national title race. There are 13 primary title contenders at this point: nine unbeaten power-conference teams, plus four one-loss programs with at least a 1% chance at the ring, per the Football Power Index (FPI). Let's walk through the primary weaknesses each team has to overcome -- the "ifs" it takes to make each team a lead contender for the College Football Playoff -- to see what it tells us about how the race could play out.
Minnesota (6-0)
SP+ ranking: 17
FPI ranking: 29
FPI national title odds: <0.1%
If ... this October renaissance is real.
After skating by early in the season and briefly falling to 50th in SP+, the Gophers beat Illinois and Nebraska by a combined 74-24 the past two weeks and have surged to 17th in SP+. The running game the Golden Gophers have been trying to establish all season has ignited (Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks in these two games: 560 combined yards).
Minnesota will have every chance in the world to prove itself, facing Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin in November. But the new Gophers have to be the permanent Gophers.
If ... the run game in particular is permanent.
Despite these two brilliant games, Minnesota still ranks only 59th in rushing marginal efficiency and 85th in rushing marginal explosiveness.
If ... opponents fall off schedule a bit more.
Led by All-America candidate Antoine Winfield Jr., the Gophers' defense is brilliant on passing downs. But that matters only if you can force them, and Minnesota ranks only 95th in standard downs marginal efficiency.
If ... place-kicking, again.
The Gophers are unproven at best in this regard. Freshman Michael Lantz is just 4-for-6 on FGs and has roven at best in this regard. Freshman Michael Lantz is just 4-for-6 on FGs and has been asked to attempt just one over 40 yards (he missed it).
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...ns-ohio-state-alabama-every-playoff-contender