Field of 68 Breakdown Leading Into B1G Tournament

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SelectionSunday

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Last update until I head to Chicago.

Saint Mary's steals a bid. 54 of the 68 NCAA bids locked up, 14 at-large bids still available. Current NET ranking is noted in parentheses.

Automatic Bids/Highest Remaining Seed In Conference Tournament (32) (ALL CAPS bold/italic denotes already earned auto bid)
Virginia (1)
Houston (4)
Michigan State (8)
WOFFORD (13)
LSU (14)
Buffalo (16)
Nevada (18)
Kansas State (24)
Villanova (25)
VCU (31)
SAINT MARY'S (34)
Washington (40)
MURRAY STATE (43)
New Mexico State (45)
LIBERTY (59)
Vermont (73)
UC-Irvine (76)
NORTHEASTERN (79)
Old Dominion (98)
NORTHERN KENTUCKY (114)
Montana (124)
Georgia State (126)
Harvard (131)
Colgate (135)
GARDNER-WEBB (172)
Sam Houston State (174)
BRADLEY (176)
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON (203)
IONA (205)
Prairie View A&M (210)
NORTH DAKOTA STATE (222)
Norfolk State (251)

Locks (22)
Gonzaga (2)
Duke (3)
Kentucky (5)
Tennessee (6)
North Carolina (7)
Texas Tech (9)
Michigan (10)
Virginia Tech (11)
Purdue (12)
Wisconsin (15)
Auburn (17)
Florida State (19)
Kansas (20)
Mississippi State (21)
Louisville (22)
Iowa State (23)
Maryland (26)
Cincinnati (27)
UCF (28)
Marquette (29)
Ole Miss (35)
Baylor (37)

Likely Already In, But 1 More Win Would Cinch It (4)
Oklahoma (39)
Iowa (42)
Syracuse (44)
Minnesota (56)

Bubble In For Now (10)
Utah State (30)
Florida (33)
Clemson (36)
Belmont (46) -- Last 4 In
Temple (50)
Indiana (51) -- Last 4 In
Alabama (58) -- Last 4 In
Seton Hall (62)
Saint John's (66) -- Last 4 In
Arizona State (67)

Bubble Out For Now (15)
NC State (32) -- First 4 Out
Texas (38) -- First 4 Out
Furman (41)
TCU (47) -- First 4 Out
Lipscomb (48)
Memphis (53)
Creighton (54) -- First 4 Out
Ohio State (55)
NC-Greensboro (57)
Oregon (61)
Arkansas (64)
Dayton (65)
Xavier (70)
Providence (75)
Georgetown (77)
 
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What do you believe our odds are all things tbd with bid stealers and tourney runs by other bubble teams that if we lose to Penn St tomorrow we still make it?
 


I've re-calibrated things a bit with my bracket.

We differ on 4.

I have Texas, TCU, Creighton, and Ohio St in.
I have Indiana, Florida, Clemson, and Alabama out.

Last 4 In: St. John's, Ohio St, Belmont, Creighton
First 4 Out: Indiana, Florida, Clemson, Alabama
 

The Bubble said:
What do you believe our odds are all things tbd with bid stealers and tourney runs by other bubble teams that if we lose to Penn St tomorrow we still make it?
Click to expand...

I'd say 80% chance Gophers still make it with a loss.

Those bid-stealers can make that percentage shrink very quickly. We've already had one (Saint Mary's), perhaps two (Belmont), who I'm higher on than most.
 
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SelectionSunday said:
I'd say 80% chance Gophers still make it with a loss.

Those bid-stealers can make that percentage shrink very quickly. We've already had one (Saint Mary's), perhaps two (Belmont), who I'm higher on than most.
Click to expand...

Very interesting how the ACC and B1G tourneys have set up with de facto elimination games today and tomorrow. No one seems confident Gophers are going to win but lets hope they surprise.
 

Block M said:
Very interesting how the ACC and B1G tourneys have set up with de facto elimination games today and tomorrow. No one seems confident Gophers are going to win but lets hope they surprise.
Click to expand...

And the elimination games do great favors to Minnesota in that we are well above the cut line and will only make more teams unpalatable to put in with another loss
 



Block M said:
Very interesting how the ACC and B1G tourneys have set up with de facto elimination games today and tomorrow. No one seems confident Gophers are going to win but lets hope they surprise.
Click to expand...

Agree. Definitely helps us that at least two other bubble teams we are already ahead of will lose their next game.
 

bizzle22 said:
Agree. Definitely helps us that at least two other bubble teams we are already ahead of will lose their next game.
Click to expand...

It likely takes them out of the pool, and then means two lower teams who were on the outside would somehow have to move up (and pass us) to bump us.
Highly unlikely.
 

This team really should just beat Penn State and not have to worry about what its. This is the kind of game good teams win.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
This team really should just beat Penn State and not have to worry about what its. This is the kind of game good teams win.
Click to expand...

That’s the problem is a good team wouldn’t be in this situation in the first place as they would have more than two road wins and a solid 7-8 seed.
 




JimmyJamesMD said:
Palm has gophers up to 9 seed
Click to expand...

Looks like we now passed Washington and Oklahoma. Seton Hall and TCU also behind us.
Utah St moved up with us.

It makes it seem that if Washington and us were both going to lose, that Washington would be more in jeopardy of falling out than us.


Interesting that Syracuse is now the same seed as us which was a point I was making on this forum just prior to our win over Purdue.

Our average seeding on bracketmatrix has moved closer to 9 by about a half point.
Most teams that were right behind us are falling down the rankings to weaker teams, versus moving up towards us. It kind of shows more to the point that we are above the bubble because these other games aren't affect us (except in a positive manner) as more bubble teams are analyzed closer.
 
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Buffalo taking care of business against Akron in an 8-1 matchup.

Villanova up 10 putting Providence to sleep.
Iowa St up on Baylor midpoint of 2nd half
Virgina scratches ahead of NC State
OSU up on Indiana which would make that decision easier.
 

Baylor loses.
They have been a consistent 8 seed, and just dropped to 9 in the last couple days.


They finish: 19-13

Q1:4-9
Q2:8-1

Q1/Q2: 12-10 0.545

Top 10 wins:
9, 23, 23, 40, 38,
40, 48, 57, 59, 83

Worst loss: 309

There sheet looks a lot like ours if we beat Penn State.
 

All minor victories at this point:

Providence - dead
Buffalo wins
Iowa St wins
NC State loses
 

If Iowa loses to Illinois and we win 2 games could we get a better seed than them? Doubt it but I'm looking for possibilities that we could move up the bubble. Looking like we are going to have to win our 2nd game to move up more than a few spots to an 8
 

Face The Facts said:
All minor victories at this point:

Providence - dead
Buffalo wins
Iowa St wins
NC State loses
Click to expand...

Is it fair to say we will be ahead of Clemson and NC State regardless of what happens today?

How about TCU? How do we shake out against them?
 

golfing18now said:
Is it fair to say we will be ahead of Clemson and NC State regardless of what happens today?

How about TCU? How do we shake out against them?
Click to expand...

I think TCU, thanks to their last win is ahead of us if we lose to PSU.
 

Really would like to get out of the 8/9 seed line. Would rather be a 10
 

upnorthkid said:
Really would like to get out of the 8/9 seed line. Would rather be a 10
Click to expand...

If what I think is right, losing we would be 10 / 11.
Win, (then lose to Purdue) we end up a 9.

Although I could be wrong. Joe Lunardi says lose and we drop to 12, but that seems unlikely.
Teams like Indiana and NC State aren't passing us when they lose the same day we do.
 

The Bubble said:
That’s the problem is a good team wouldn’t be in this situation in the first place as they would have more than two road wins and a solid 7-8 seed.
Click to expand...

Your right! Apparently were not a good team then. Experts are telling us were probably in. So since were not a good team and if we get in should we decline? We may not be a good team, but apparently either are about another 30 teams!
 

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