Final B1G Tournament Projection: 7 Gophers vs. 10 Penn State

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SelectionSunday

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This Big Ten Tournament bracket projected out with the following results this weekend:

Indiana over Rutgers
Iowa over Nebraska
Maryland over Minnesota
Michigan State over Michigan
Penn State over Illinois
Purdue over Northwestern
Wisconsin over Ohio State

Wednesday, March 13 (Weakling Wednesday)
#12 Rutgers (7-13) vs. #13 Nebraska (5-15), 5:30 CT (BTN)
#11 Illinois (7-13) vs. #14 Northwestern (4-16), 8 (BTN)

Thursday, March 14 (2nd Round)
#8 Ohio State (8-12) vs. #9 Indiana (8-12), 11:30 (BTN)
#5 Maryland (13-7) vs. Rutgers/Nebraska winner, 2 (BTN)
#7 GOPHERS (9-11) vs. #10 Penn State (7-13), 6 (BTN)
#6 Iowa (11-9) vs. Illinois/Northwestern winner, 8:30 (BTN)

Friday, March 15 (Quarterfinals)
#1 Michigan State (16-4) vs. Ohio State/Indiana winner, 11:30 (BTN)
#4 Wisconsin (14-6) vs. Maryland/Rutgers/Nebraska winner, 2 (BTN)
#2 Purdue (16-4) vs. GOPHERS/Penn State winner, 6 (BTN)
#3 Michigan (15-5) vs. Iowa/Illinois/Northwestern winner, 8:30 (BTN)
 



SelectionSunday said:
This Big Ten Tournament bracket projected out with the following results this weekend:

Indiana over Rutgers
Iowa over Nebraska
Maryland over Minnesota
Michigan State over Michigan
Penn State over Illinois
Purdue over Northwestern
Wisconsin over Ohio State

Wednesday, March 13 (Weakling Wednesday)
#12 Rutgers (7-13) vs. #13 Nebraska (5-15), 5:30 CT (BTN)
#11 Illinois (7-13) vs. #14 Northwestern (4-16), 8 (BTN)

Thursday, March 14 (2nd Round)
#8 Ohio State (8-12) vs. #9 Indiana (8-12), 11:30 (BTN)
#5 Maryland (13-7) vs. Rutgers/Nebraska winner, 2 (BTN)
#7 GOPHERS (9-11) vs. #10 Penn State (7-13), 6 (BTN)
#6 Iowa (11-9) vs. Illinois/Northwestern winner, 8:30 (BTN)

Friday, March 15 (Quarterfinals)
#1 Michigan State (16-4) vs. Ohio State/Indiana winner, 11:30 (BTN)
#4 Wisconsin (14-6) vs. Maryland/Rutgers/Nebraska winner, 2 (BTN)
#2 Purdue (16-4) vs. GOPHERS/Penn State winner, 6 (BTN)
#3 Michigan (15-5) vs. Iowa/Illinois/Northwestern winner, 8:30 (BTN)
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No matter who the Gophers play, it is going to be a tough draw. Nits are the hottest team, playing Illinois in Chicago is a disaster waiting to happen, Indiana has its groove back and are staring at a possible miraculous comeback to make the tournament, and Rutgers size is a match-up problem. Given a choice, I think I'd take Rutgers. I don't have the analytic brain to do the "if/then" equations if your predictions don't work out, but the two I see as possibly being different are the PSU-Illinois game and Indiana-Rutgers, and both of those would change up the pairings.

I just want the Gophers to win and play two or three games since I'll be down there, and have missed so many games during the season.
 

Holy Man said:
No matter who the Gophers play, it is going to be a tough draw. Nits are the hottest team, playing Illinois in Chicago is a disaster waiting to happen, Indiana has its groove back and are staring at a possible miraculous comeback to make the tournament, and Rutgers size is a match-up problem. Given a choice, I think I'd take Rutgers. I don't have the analytic brain to do the "if/then" equations if your predictions don't work out, but the two I see as possibly being different are the PSU-Illinois game and Indiana-Rutgers, and both of those would change up the pairings.

I just want the Gophers to win and play two or three games since I'll be down there, and have missed so many games during the season.
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My order of preference would be:

Ohio State (if no Wesson)
Rutgers
Illinois
Penn State
Indiana
 




If Indiana and OSU play in first round, do you think the loser does not make the tournament? Seems like that could help us..?
 

PhillyPHIRE73 said:
If Indiana and OSU play in first round, do you think the loser does not make the tournament? Seems like that could help us..?
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Hard for me seeing OSU in the bracket (assuming a loss to WI) without at least two wins in Chicago. Hard for me to envision that, but historically OSU has outperformed their seed more than any team in the B1G, at least by memory. All eyes on Chicago. Every game could be a real good one.
 



With regard to Ohio State, when I was watching the end of their game at Northwestern, the announcers said that Wesson is supposed to be back at some point this season, so I wonder if the conference tournament would be when they decide to reinstate him.
 

Penn State would be a terrible draw. They are playing really well right now and winning that game does nothing for our resume either. I'd rather play Rutgers or even Illinois. Just beat Maryland and don't worry about having to win multiple games in the BTT.
 

I'd like a chance to knock Indiana or OSU out, but OSU scares me. We never play well against them except at home.
 

dex8425 said:
Penn State would be a terrible draw. They are playing really well right now and winning that game does nothing for our resume either. I'd rather play Rutgers or even Illinois. Just beat Maryland and don't worry about having to win multiple games in the BTT.
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Penn State now has a NET in the 40's, which would be a quad one win on a neutral floor.

The worst draw would be Indiana, which could become a de facto "winner is in / loser is out" game which we would probably lose.
 




dex8425 said:
Penn State would be a terrible draw. They are playing really well right now and winning that game does nothing for our resume either. I'd rather play Rutgers or even Illinois. Just beat Maryland and don't worry about having to win multiple games in the BTT.
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Strongly disagree.

Wessonless Ohio state probably best draw.
Penn state second best draw IMO.


We want to avoid a team we beat to play a team we lost to because we are afraid of the team we beat?

We are worried about losing so we want to have a lower ranked opponent to lose to?



Penn State is the ideal team to play. Quad 1 win. Have only played them once.
 

dex8425 said:
Penn State would be a terrible draw. They are playing really well right now and winning that game does nothing for our resume either. I'd rather play Rutgers or even Illinois. Just beat Maryland and don't worry about having to win multiple games in the BTT.
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If you think the Gophers will have to win multiple games in the BTT because they lost to Maryland I’m not quite sure you’re paying attention. The Gophers are likely in regardless of the outcome in the tournament, especially if we match up with Penn St. which would only give us a Quad1 loss at worse (and a win at best)
 

Any opportunity to bolster your resume is a good draw. Don't really get the fascination with a team that's 6-13 in conference play. That being said, we'd likely be a slight underdog against Penn State.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Penn St would be a good draw from a NET perspective.
Lose to Penn St, it shouldn't hurt the pedigree that much.
Win, and suddenly we look like a 7-8 seed.
 

So do we get the #7 seed or does OSU jump us if they beat Wisconsin? I'm hoping for the late game......so I may have to root for Wisconsin......which I don't think I've ever been forced to do.
 

If they win it's a two-way tie and they have the tiebreaker since they won the only head to head game. I want the late game too so I have to root for Wisconsin.
 

GoGophersUMN said:
If they win it's a two-way tie and they have the tiebreaker since they won the only head to head game. I want the late game too so I have to root for Wisconsin.
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That's what I thought. $hit. Because a Wisconsin loss would knock them down to the 5th seed. But having our Thursday (and potential Friday) game/s at 6:00 rather than at 11:30 is more important. Difference between being able to watch the games or being stuck at work.

But with Wesson still out....I don't think I'll really have to do much cheering. Also....OSU losing should push them further down the NCAA tourney pecking order.
 

stocker08 said:
That's what I thought. $hit. Because a Wisconsin loss would knock them down to the 5th seed. But having our Thursday (and potential Friday) game/s at 6:00 rather than at 11:30 is more important. Difference between being able to watch the games or being stuck at work.

But with Wesson still out....I don't think I'll really have to do much cheering. Also....OSU losing should push them further down the NCAA tourney pecking order.
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Wisconsin sliding down to 5 doesn't impact us directly because by the time we get to them, the 5 and 4 would have already met. It would be nice to see them fall but I'd rather have a better matchup and time than see them fall.

That would give us a really great path. First game against Penn State which is good for NET and is winable. Second game against Purdue who we split with and came close to beating on the road. Third game against Michigan who we played well against on the road. Still a longshot but we avoid Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Maryland until Sunday rather than having to play two of the 3 on Friday and Saturday.
 

mnhoopboy said:
Any opportunity to bolster your resume is a good draw. Don't really get the fascination with a team that's 6-13 in conference play. That being said, we'd likely be a slight underdog against Penn State.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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If they beat Illinois, they will have won 7 of their last 10. Obviously, they are not the same team that lost the first 10.
 


Penn State and Indiana are the only possible first round opponents now.

Penn State's 7-3 run is impressive but not amazing. Their 3 road wins were all against teams playing on Wednesday. 2 of their home wins were against playing Wednesday. Their only impressive wins were Michigan and Maryland. Indiana has had 3 good wins including 2 on the road. In their last 4 they have 2 good wins and two wins by more than 15. I'd rather play Penn State even before considering NET or how much easier our path beyond the first game is as a 7 seed.
 

Bring it on! We shouldn't be afraid of playing anybody if we have any expectations of success.
 

GoGophersUMN said:
Penn State and Indiana are the only possible first round opponents now.

Penn State's 7-3 run is impressive but not amazing. Their 3 road wins were all against teams playing on Wednesday. 2 of their home wins were against playing Wednesday. Their only impressive wins were Michigan and Maryland. Indiana has had 3 good wins including 2 on the road. In their last 4 they have 2 good wins and two wins by more than 15. I'd rather play Penn State even before considering NET or how much easier our path beyond the first game is as a 7 seed.
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So they only have 2 impressive wins in that span and it basically is on par with our only 2 very good wins...
 

RickDornsby said:
So they only have 2 impressive wins in that span and it basically is on par with our only 2 good wins...
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We have 4 wins against teams that were ranked at the time and a neutral-court win against Washington. They have two total wins against the top ten teams in the Big Ten.
 

GoGophersUMN said:
Wisconsin sliding down to 5 doesn't impact us directly because by the time we get to them, the 5 and 4 would have already met. It would be nice to see them fall but I'd rather have a better matchup and time than see them fall.

That would give us a really great path. First game against Penn State which is good for NET and is winable. Second game against Purdue who we split with and came close to beating on the road. Third game against Michigan who we played well against on the road. Still a longshot but we avoid Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Maryland until Sunday rather than having to play two of the 3 on Friday and Saturday.
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I was referring to Wisconsin sliding down to the fifth seed and having to play on Thursday rather than having a double bye in the tournament.
 

GoGophersUMN said:
We have 4 wins against teams that were ranked at the time and a neutral-court win against Washington. They have two total wins against the top ten teams in the Big Ten.
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That is impressive spin. Washington would’ve gone 9-11 or so in the Big 10.

Penn State beat 3 teams “ranked at the time” (all still ranked). One of our 4 was Nebraska.

The difference between the teams is Penn State had a tougher schedule and had some lapses early in the year. That’s about it.
 

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