Bubble Watch Teams - NET / RPI

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Dano564

Dano564

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Some analysis on NET and RPI for current bubble teams fighting for 9 spots.

Team W L NET RPI
Minnesota 18-11 60 52


Teams with better NET AND RPI than us right now.
From major conferences:

Team W L NET RPI
Florida 17-11 30 49
Alabama 17-11 48 42


From Mid-Major / Minor
Team W L NET RPI
UCF 21-6 31 29
Utah State 22-6 34 38
Saint Mary's College 19-10 39 43
Temple 20-8 57 31


Two Teams on the bubble have worse NET and RPI rankings:

Team W L NET RPI
Seton Hall 16-11 65 57
Davidson 19-8 76 53



Teams with a better NET, but worse RPI:
Team W L NET RPI
North Carolina State 20-8 32 89
Clemson 17-11 41 55
Butler 15-13 54 75


One Team has a better RPI, but worse NET:
Team W L NET RPI
Arizona State 19-8 63 48
 
Last edited:

Our Ken Pom is up to 47. That should help pull our NET up 2 spots to 58 or so.
 

Another way to look at it, pick 9, send 4 home. (Sorted as currently ranked on Bracketmatrix).


Dancing
North Carolina State 20-8 32 89

Florida 17-11 30 49
Arizona State 19-8 63 48
UCF 21-6 31 29
Temple 20-8 57 31

Minnesota 18-11 60 52
Seton Hall 16-11 65 57
Alabama 17-11 48 42
Utah State 22-6 34 38

Currently Out
Clemson 17-11 41 55
Butler 15-13 54 75
Saint Mary's College 19-10 39 43
Davidson 19-8 76 53
 

Face The Facts said:
Another way to look at it, pick 9, send 4 home. (Sorted as currently ranked on Bracketmatrix).


Dancing
North Carolina State 20-8 32 89

Florida 17-11 30 49
Arizona State 19-8 63 48
UCF 21-6 31 29
Temple 20-8 57 31

Minnesota 18-11 60 52
Seton Hall 16-11 65 57
Alabama 17-11 48 42
Utah State 22-6 34 38

Currently Out
Clemson 17-11 41 55
Butler 15-13 54 75
Saint Mary's College 19-10 39 43
Davidson 19-8 76 53
Click to expand...

I appreciate you putting this together but how do you know the universe of possibilities is limited to the teams you list?

What if there are upsets in conference tournaments where teams with high computer rankings lose the tournament? Is it not possible they could take the automatic qualifier and the team with the high ranking? Is it not possible that both Murray State (with a projected top 3 or 4 draft pick) and Belmont could make the tournament over a mediocre Seton Hall or Minnesota?
 

Can someone find the thread where we predicted how many wins we would get in the big ten. I cant seem to find it.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 


After the game Lunardi said the gophers went from last team in to moving up five spots. I’d think winning one of the remaining two games should be good enough.
 

Gopherbbdude said:
Can someone find the thread where we predicted how many wins we would get in the big ten. I cant seem to find it.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I was planning to bump that poll once we got to the end of the season but here you go.....
 

golfing18now said:
I was planning to bump that poll once we got to the end of the season.
Click to expand...

I'd love to see how many people predicted 8-9 wins this year. I believe the majority picked them to win 8 or less Big10 games.

if you told me we would be at 18-20 wins this year, I would have ok with it. that would be an improvement from last years derailment
 

Gopherbbdude said:
I'd love to see how many people predicted 8-9 wins this year. I believe the majority picked them to win 8 or less Big10 games.

if you told me we would be at 18-20 wins this year, I would have ok with it. that would be an improvement from last years derailment
Click to expand...

9 or 10 was the most frequent answer. Truthfully, this team landed pretty close to expectation when I started the poll in early January.
 



golfing18now said:
9 or 10 was the most frequent answer. Truthfully, this team landed pretty close to expectation when I started the poll in early January.
Click to expand...

I think we are landing somewhere near my expectation, I thought we were a tourney team, but didnt expect much more. My objection is less about us doing worse than I expected in October. My problem is that, based on the last five years, my expectations for this year were so low in the first place.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I think we are landing somewhere near my expectation, I thought we were a tourney team, but didnt expect much more. My objection is less about us doing worse than I expected in October. My problem is that, based on the last five years, my expectations for this year were so low in the first place.
Click to expand...

That's a fair concern. I can't argue with you on that one.
 

golfing18now said:
9 or 10 was the most frequent answer. Truthfully, this team landed pretty close to expectation when I started the poll in early January.
Click to expand...

I voted for 8 regular season conference wins in total in that poll after the Illinois game (that meant 5 more wins at that time). The team is right there now. I feel I have at least a 50/50 chance of guessing right given the quality of the remaining two opponents.
 

cjbfbp said:
I appreciate you putting this together but how do you know the universe of possibilities is limited to the teams you list?

What if there are upsets in conference tournaments where teams with high computer rankings lose the tournament? Is it not possible they could take the automatic qualifier and the team with the high ranking? Is it not possible that both Murray State (with a projected top 3 or 4 draft pick) and Belmont could make the tournament over a mediocre Seton Hall or Minnesota?
Click to expand...

This is just a snapshot right now.
I just wanted to show the disparities of record, NET and RPI among those teams that are currently on the bubble.

I'll pull this list a few more times in the coming weeks.
 



Gophers currently now 55 in NET.
 




HOOP DREAMS said:
If the Gophers beat Purdue, then lose to Maryland and lose the first game of the B1G tourney are we still in?
Click to expand...

There's always a chance, but I'd lean pretty strongly toward no.

We'd be rooting heavily for a Buffalo, Nevada, Wofford, Washington, Belmont, and VCU to win their conference tourneys. And we'd hope teams like Clemson, NC State, Temple, Seton Hall, and a few others fizzled out early in their conference tournaments. If all those things happened we might be okay. (But it's unlikely that all or even most of those things happen so that's why I lean no.)
 

HOOP DREAMS said:
If the Gophers beat Purdue, then lose to Maryland and lose the first game of the B1G tourney are we still in?
Click to expand...
It would probably land us in 50/50 territory imo. It would depend on other auto qualifiers and how other bubble teams fair down the stretch.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Better question might be what are our chances to win one of the next two games?

It depends what Amir shows up, IMO. Last nights Amir; 55% chance we win one of the two. Crappy Amir; 35%.
 

HOOP DREAMS said:
If the Gophers beat Purdue, then lose to Maryland and lose the first game of the B1G tourney are we still in?
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, this is probably the most likely scenario. We would be “in” at the start of conf championship weekend, but as the weekend progressed and other teams played their way in, I think we’d eventually fall to first four out.

Our first round BTT game probably will be against Illinois (in Chicago, smh) for our ncaa tournament lives. In that scenario, how many of you think we’d come away with a win?
 

WanderingGopher said:
Unfortunately, this is probably the most likely scenario. We would be “in” at the start of conf championship weekend, but as the weekend progressed and other teams played their way in, I think we’d eventually fall to first four out.

Our first round BTT game probably will be against Illinois (in Chicago, smh) for our ncaa tournament lives. In that scenario, how many of you think we’d come away with a win?
Click to expand...

I know we wet the bed at Illinois, but we can win that game.
 

WanderingGopher said:
Unfortunately, this is probably the most likely scenario. We would be “in” at the start of conf championship weekend, but as the weekend progressed and other teams played their way in, I think we’d eventually fall to first four out.

Our first round BTT game probably will be against Illinois (in Chicago, smh) for our ncaa tournament lives. In that scenario, how many of you think we’d come away with a win?
Click to expand...

We can beat them. But Gophs have to play HARD for 40 minutes, because Underwood's team brings it
 


If we get into coin flip territory, I hope someone reminds the committee we were robbed of a tier one road win at Nebraska.

Wouldn’t it be gophery if that call cost us a tourney bid and cost Pitino his job.
 

HOOP DREAMS said:
If the Gophers beat Purdue, then lose to Maryland and lose the first game of the B1G tourney are we still in?
Click to expand...

This is what I think would have them sweating through their shirts. I'm guessing that this would be "barely" enough to get in. A win against Purdue would be huge, then 2 losses to Maryland and probably Illinois or Rutgers.

This one could go either way IMO. Best is to win one of the next 2 and then your first round BT game. Do that and I think they are in.
 

WanderingGopher said:
If we get into coin flip territory, I hope someone reminds the committee we were robbed of a tier one road win at Nebraska.

Wouldn’t it be gophery if that call cost us a tourney bid and cost Pitino his job.
Click to expand...

So, conversely, if we just barely end up on the right side of the bubble, would we say that a blown traveling call against Washington saved his job? These things cut both ways. If he loses his job, it will be because of six years of performance, not one call.

To be clear, if we get in the tournament, I will not denigrate that accomplishment based on how soft the bubble is or the traveling call. It is absurd to look for ways to poo poo your team's accomplishment. I'm just pointing out that I dont want to excuse our failures either.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
So, conversely, if we just barely end up on the right side of the bubble, would we say that a blown traveling call against Washington saved his job? These things cut both ways. If he loses his job, it will be because of six years of performance, not one call.

To be clear, if we get in the tournament, I will not denigrate that accomplishment based on how soft the bubble is or the traveling call. It is absurd to look for ways to poo poo your team's accomplishment. I'm just pointing out that I dont want to excuse our failures either.
Click to expand...

Well said. It sounds so simplistic, but a team either gets in or gets left out on their own merits. And if the Gophers get in by the skin of their teeth and play in Dayton, I have no time for people who will make light of that (and there will be plenty here who'll do that).

Get in. Give me the First Four or the 1st round, either one all that matters is having a chance to survive and advance. I'd take Dayton in a heartbeat right now.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
So, conversely, if we just barely end up on the right side of the bubble, would we say that a blown traveling call against Washington saved his job? These things cut both ways. If he loses his job, it will be because of six years of performance, not one call.
.
Click to expand...

I’m not suggesting otherwise. Also, if it were up to me, it’d take more than a first rd ncaa appearance to bring him back.

I’m still annoyed at that call because I knew we’d end up near the cut line. Also would be ironic if ncaa selection committee screwed us to end the year, because ncaa screwed us to begin the year.
 

Here are 10 seeds through about 12 teams out right now sorted by Bracket Matrix combined.

Team
#10 Seed - VCU | Net=37 | RPI=23
#10 Seed - TCU | Net=43 | RPI=41
#10 Seed - Texas | Net=36 | RPI=53
#10 Seed - North Carolina State | Net=31 | RPI=92

#11 Seed - UCF | Net=30 | RPI=29
#11 Seed - Florida | Net=29 | RPI=48
#11 Seed - Alabama | Net=48 | RPI=42
#11 Seed - Arizona State | Net=68 | RPI=50

#12 Seed - Utah State | Net=34 | RPI=38
#12 Seed - Temple | Net=56 | RPI=31
#12 Seed - Minnesota | Net=55 | RPI=51
#12 Seed - Seton Hall | Net=64 | RPI=55

First ones out
#17 Seed - Saint Mary's College | Net=39 | RPI=47
#17 Seed - Clemson | Net=41 | RPI=54
#17 Seed - Butler | Net=54 | RPI=75
#17 Seed - Nebraska | Net=49 | RPI=113

#18 Seed - UNCG | Net=61 | RPI=35
#18 Seed - Toledo | Net=62 | RPI=37
#18 Seed - San Francisco | Net=60 | RPI=65
#18 Seed - Davidson | Net=75 | RPI=52

#19 Seed - Murray State | Net=52 | RPI=69
#19 Seed - Dayton | Net=66 | RPI=62
#19 Seed - Creighton | Net=57 | RPI=72
#19 Seed - Indiana | Net=58 | RPI=100

#20 Seed - Georgetown | Net=72 | RPI=93
#20 Seed - South Florida | Net=82 | RPI=101
#20 Seed - Memphis | Net=53 | RPI=59
 

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