Field of 68 Projection (through Feb. 17)

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SelectionSunday

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NET ranking through games played Feb. 17 is noted in parentheses. An * denotes multiple-bid conference leader or, in the event of a tie, the team with the best NET rank.

FIELD OF 68

America East (1): Vermont (66)

American (3): *Houston (4), Cincinnati (27), UCF (40)

ACC (8): *Duke (1), Virginia (3), North Carolina (9), Virginia Tech (14), Louisville (17), Florida State (22), NC State (32), Syracuse (48)

Atlantic Sun (1): Lipscomb (37)

Atlantic 10 (1): VCU (43)

Big East (5): Marquette (19), *Villanova (20), Saint John's (46), Butler (49), Seton Hall (60)

Big Sky (1): Montana (109)

Big South (1): Radford (133)

B1G (8): *Michigan State (7), Michigan (8), Purdue (12), Wisconsin (15), Maryland (25), Iowa (28), Ohio State (44), GOPHERS (51)

Big XII (8): Texas Tech (10), Iowa State (13), Kansas (18), *Kansas State (29), Texas (35), Baylor (36), Oklahoma (38), TCU (41)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (102)

Colonial (1): Hofstra (58)

Conference USA (1): Old Dominion (81)

Horizon (1): Northern Kentucky (110)

Ivy (1): Yale (65)

MAAC (1): Quinnipiac (243)

MAC (1): Buffalo (23)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (258)

Missouri Valley (1): Loyola-Chicago (124)

Mountain West (1): Nevada (11)

Northeast (1): Saint Francis-PA (260)

Ohio Valley (2): *Murray State (59), Belmont (62)

Pac 12 (2): *Washington (31), Arizona State (68)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (156)

SEC (7): Kentucky (5), *Tennessee (6), LSU (16), Auburn (21), Mississippi State (24), Ole Miss (30), Alabama (50)

Southern (2): *Wofford (26), Furman (45)

Southland (1): Sam Houston State (169)

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M (223)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (99)

Sun Belt (1): Texas State (108)

WCC (1): Gonzaga (2)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (61)
____________________________________

Last 4 In: NC State (32), Oklahoma (38), Furman (45), Belmont (62)

First 4 Out: Florida (33), Utah State (34), Clemson (42), Temple (53)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (4): Cincinnati (27), UCF (40), Furman (45), Belmont (62)

Movin' On In: Furman (at-large), Murray State, Oklahoma (at-large), Quinnipiac, Saint Francis-PA

Movin' On Out: Arkansas, Clemson, Indiana, Monmouth, Robert Morris

GOPHERS vs. Projected Field of 68: 3-6: (vs. Washington (W), @ Ohio State (L), @ Wisconsin (W), Maryland (L), @ Michigan (L), Iowa (W), @ Purdue (L), Wisconsin (L), @ Michigan State (L))
 
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SelectionSunday said:
With the NCAA being terminally slow updating the NET rankings (no updates since Saturday morning), this week I'll use the current KenPom rankings (in parentheses). An * denotes multiple-bid conference leader or, in the event of a tie, the team with the best KenPom rank.

FIELD OF 68

America East (1): Vermont (70)

American (3): *Houston (18), Cincinnati (31), UCF (49)

ACC (8): *Duke (1), Virginia (2), North Carolina (8), Virginia Tech (12), Louisville (14), Florida State (20), NC State (35), Syracuse (43)

Atlantic Sun (1): Lipscomb (40)

Atlantic 10 (1): VCU (45)

Big East (5): *Villanova (22), Marquette (26), Saint John's (50), Butler (51), Seton Hall (57)

Big Sky (1): Montana (124)

Big South (1): Radford (120)

B1G (8): *Michigan State (4), Michigan (6), Purdue (10), Wisconsin (11), Maryland (19), Iowa (25), Ohio State (39), GOPHERS (46)

Big XII (8): Texas Tech (9), Kansas (15), Iowa State (13), Texas (27), *Kansas State (32), Oklahoma (36), Baylor (37), TCU (41)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (105)

Colonial (1): Hofstra (72)

Conference USA (1): Old Dominion (104)

Horizon (1): Northern Kentucky (88)

Ivy (1): Yale (76)

MAAC (1): Quinnipiac (224)

MAC (1): Buffalo (24)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (259)

Missouri Valley (1): Loyola-Chicago (126)

Mountain West (1): Nevada (17)

Northeast (1): Saint Francis-PA (249)

Ohio Valley (2): *Murray State (54), Belmont (64)

Pac 12 (2): *Washington (38), Arizona State (62)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (147)

SEC (7): Kentucky (5), *Tennessee (7), Auburn (16), LSU (21), Mississippi State (23), Ole Miss (34), Alabama (56)

Southern (2): *Wofford (28), Furman (52)

Southland (1): Sam Houston State (162)

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M (237)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (82)

Sun Belt (1): Texas State (96)

WCC (1): Gonzaga (3)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (59)
____________________________________

Last 4 In: NC State (35), Oklahoma (36), Furman (52), Belmont (64)

First 4 Out: Florida (29), Clemson (30), Utah State (42), Temple (75)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (4): Cincinnati (31), UCF (49), Furman (52), Belmont (64)

Movin' On In: Furman (at-large), Murray State, Oklahoma (at-large), Quinnipiac, Saint Francis-PA

Movin' On Out: Arkansas, Clemson, Indiana, Monmouth, Robert Morris

GOPHERS vs. Projected Field of 68: 3-6: (vs. Washington (W), @ Ohio State (L), @ Wisconsin (W), Maryland (L), @ Michigan (L), Iowa (W), @ Purdue (L), Wisconsin (L), @ Michigan State (L))
Click to expand...

Good field! The only thing I would disagree with is the removal of Utah State. I would remove Butler or maybe Oklahoma instead. Despite the computer ranking, there just seems to be something wrong with taking a team that has a 4-9 conference record at the moment.
 

I know this is done on an "if the tournament were chosen today" model, but it's hard for me to see a current 6-8 Ohio State with games against Purdue, Wisconsin and Maryland to close the season being able to do enough to get in. Buckeyes do have an excellent history in B1G Tournament, though.
 

cjbfbp said:
Good field! The only thing I would disagree with is the removal of Utah State. I would remove Butler or maybe Oklahoma instead. Despite the computer ranking, there just seems to be something wrong with taking a team that has a 4-9 conference record at the moment.
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Thanks.

Agree with you about the 4-9 record. I plugged my nose when I put Indiana in last week & did the same with Oklahoma this week. That's a pretty good indicator of how weak the bubble is this year and how devoid of at-large candidates some of the traditional multiple-bid conferences (Pac 12, A-10, MW, WCC) are.

If teams like Indiana, Oklahoma, Nebraska, etc., are 4 games or more below .500 on Selection Sunday (counting conference tourney games), it will be awfully hard to justify giving them an at-large bid.
 

This is my projected field as of now:

East Regional(Washington DC)

1. DUKE(ACC)
16. BUCKNELL(PATRIOT)
- Colonial Life Arena(Columbia, SC)
8. WOFFORD(SO. CON)
9. Baylor

5. Wisconsin
12. BELMONT(OVC)
- SAP Center(San Jose, CA)
4. Iowa State
13. HOFSTRA(CAA)

6. Florida State
11. Seton Hall
- BOK Center(Tulsa, OK)
3. HOUSTON(AAC)
14. TEXAS STATE(SUN BELT)

7. Mississippi State
10. Ohio State
- BOK Center(Tulsa, OK)
2. Kansas
15. NORTHERN KENTUCKY(HORIZON)

South Regional(Louisville, KY)

1. Virginia
16. QUINNIPIAC(MAAC)/NORFOLK STATE(MEAC)
- Colonial Life Arena(Columbia, SC)
8. St. John's
9. WASHINGTON(PAC 12)

5. Iowa
12. VCU(A-10)
- SAP Center(San Jose, CA)
4. Texas Tech
13. NEW MEXICO STATE(WAC)

6. KANSAS STATE(BIG 12)
11. Minnesota
- XL Center(Hartford, CT)
3. Marquette
14. UC-IRVINE(BIG WEST)

7. BUFFALO(MAC)
10. TCU
- Nationwide Arena(Columbus, OH)
2. Kentucky
15. RADFORD(BIG SOUTH)

Midwest Regional(Kansas City, MO)

1. TENNESSEE(SEC)
16. ST. FRANCIS(PA)(NEC)/PRAIRIE VIEW A&M(SWAC)
- Nationwide Arena(Columbus, OH)
8. NC State
9. Oklahoma

5. Maryland
12. Furman
- Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
4. NEVADA(MTN. WEST)
13. VERMONT(AM. EAST)

6. VILLANOVA(BIG EAST)
11. Nebraska/Utah State
- Jacksonville VMA(Jacksonville, FL)
3. North Carolina
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE(SUMMIT)

7. Ole Miss
10. LIPSCOMB(A-SUN)
- Wells Fargo Arena(Des Moines, IA)
2. MICHIGAN STATE(B1G)
15. MONTANA(BIG SKY)

West Regional(Anaheim, CA)

1. GONZAGA(WCC)
16. SAM HOUSTON STATE(SOUTHLAND)
- Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
8. Auburn
9. Texas

5. Louisville
12. Alabama/Arizona State
- XL Center(Hartford, CT)
4. Purdue
13. YALE(IVY)

6. Virginia Tech
11. Central Florida
- Jacksonville VMA(Jacksonville, FL)
3. LSU
14. OLD DOMINION(C-USA)

7. Cincinnati
10. Syracuse
- Wells Fargo Arena(Des Moines, IA)
2. Michigan
15. LOYOLA(CH)(MVC)

Bids by Conference:
B1G: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
SEC: 7
Big East: 4
AAC: 3
Pac 12: 2
Mountain West: 2
Southern Conference: 2

Top 10 "Seed" Curve: Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Michigan, Kentucky, Michigan State, Kansas, Houston, Marquette
Last 4 BYES: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Central Florida, Furman
Last 4 IN: Alabama, Nebraska, Utah State, Arizona State
First 4 OUT: Florida, Clemson, Butler, Temple
Next 4 OUT: Davidson, Liberty, UNC-Greensboro, Arkansas
 


SelectionSunday said:
Thanks.

Agree with you about the 4-9 record. I plugged my nose when I put Indiana in last week & did the same with Oklahoma this week. That's a pretty good indicator of how weak the bubble is this year and how devoid of at-large candidates some of the traditional multiple-bid conferences (Pac 12, A-10, MW, WCC) are.

If teams like Indiana, Oklahoma, Nebraska, etc., are 4 games or more below .500 on Selection Sunday (counting conference tourney games), it will be awfully hard to justify giving them an at-large bid.
Click to expand...

Looking at the Gophers remaining schedule....if they only win one more game in the conference (and finish 8-12, say they beat Northwestern), but win a B1G tournament game, do you think they would make the tournament?
 

I think it would depend on how we lost those games. If those losses are by 3 or less, that might make the difference.

I would say the Gophers have to win 2 more in regular season play or have 3 more wins, with one win in the regular season and 2 in the tournament...

I think a win over Rutgers and Northwestern would make our first tournament game do or die.

A win over Michigan, Purdue or Maryland plus a win over either Rutgers or Northwestern would likely seal it
 

ethomasp31 said:
Looking at the Gophers remaining schedule....if they only win one more game in the conference (and finish 8-12, say they beat Northwestern), but win a B1G tournament game, do you think they would make the tournament?
Click to expand...

Highly doubtful, but important to know who the win in Chicago came against.
 
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Lakers612 said:
I think it would depend on how we lost those games. If those losses are by 3 or less, that might make the difference.

I would say the Gophers have to win 2 more in regular season play or have 3 more wins, with one win in the regular season and 2 in the tournament...

I think a win over Rutgers and Northwestern would make our first tournament game do or die.

A win over Michigan, Purdue or Maryland plus a win over either Rutgers or Northwestern would likely seal it
Click to expand...

I was mainly asking because the bubble seems so weak. If Ohio State and the Gophers both struggle, that could mean only 6 B1G teams in the tournament. Someone has to get in....I expect that some teams from weaker conferences will step up a little at the end of the year too.
 



The one team I hope we play in Chicago is Nebraska. For pay back on the terrible calls and B it could be a quad 1 win still.
 

We differ on 3. (Really just 2, I updated my NET rankings yesterday so I have Belmont over Murray St for the auto bid from the OVC.)

I have Utah St, Florida, and Temple in.
I have NC State, Furman, and Murray St (see above) out.

Last 4 In: Butler, Florida, Temple, Minnesota
First 4 Out: Clemson, UNC-Greensboro, NC State, St. Mary's
 


Unregistered User said:
This is starting to look like a crazy finish.

<img src="https://i.redd.it/9x6rdnpgzqh21.jpg" width="25%" height="25%">
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Shaping up to be a brutal battle to get crushed by Duke as the lowest 16 seed. I look for Monmouth or Iona to pull it out with their tournament experience.
 




It is starting to feel like 9-11 if one of our two wins is against Michigan, Purdue or Maryland....might just be good enough.
 

bga1 said:
It is starting to feel like 9-11 if one of our two wins is against Michigan, Purdue or Maryland....might just be good enough.
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I'm from Minnesota. If we have the minimum requirement, I expect they will find a way to keep us out. No benefit of the doubt. I'm for leaving nothing to chance. It's time to just rise up and grab it and not back in.
 

Holy Man said:
I'm from Minnesota. If we have the minimum requirement, I expect they will find a way to keep us out. No benefit of the doubt. I'm for leaving nothing to chance. It's time to just rise up and grab it and not back in.
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I'm with you there! It's just crazy looking at some of the bubble teams- Oregon State is 16-8 - 8-4 in that conference. They are not even on the bubble and they haven't played on team that was ranked (at the time they played them) all year long.
 

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