Bubblicious: My current breakdown of the B1G's 4 bubble teams

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SelectionSunday

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Using 10 various criteria, how I'd rank the 4 B1G teams currently considered just above, on, or just below the NCAA Tournament bubble. Note, none of my criteria include Quads 3 or 4. As a general rule, I don't put a lot of emphasis on wins & losses coming from the bottom 2 quads, though I do peruse that information.

INDIANA
KPI/NET Average: 52/51 (51.5)
Quad 1 Wins/Record: 4/4-8 (.333)
Quad 1 + 2 Wins/Record: 6/6-11 (.353)
Best 3 NET Wins/Total: 43 (@ Michigan State 7, Louisville 16, Marquette 20)
True Road Wins/Record: 2/2-7 (.222)
Road/Neutral Record: 3-7 (.300)
Overall SOS/Non-Conference SOS Average: 36/126 (81)
Average Net Win: 145
Average Net Loss: 37
Record vs. My Current Field of 68: 4-8 (.333)

MINNESOTA
KPI/NET Average: 44/58 (51)
Quad 1 Wins/Record: 3/3-7 (.300)
Quad 1 + 2 Wins/Record: 7/7-9 (.438)
Best 3 NET Wins/Total: 73 (@ Wisconsin 15, Iowa 28, vs. Washington 30)
True Road Wins/Record: 1/1-7 (.125)
Road/Neutral Record: 5-7 (.417)
Overall SOS/Non-Conference SOS Average: 59/199 (129)
Average Net Win: 132
Average Net Loss: 39
Record vs. My Current Field of 68: 3-6 (.333)

NEBRASKA
KPI/NET Average: 59/38 (48.5)
Quad 1 Wins/Record: 2/2-8 (.200)
Quad 1 + 2 Wins/Record: 7/7-11 (.389)
Best 3 NET Wins/Total: 151 (@ Clemson 42, @ Indiana 51, Minnesota 58)
True Road Wins/Record: 2/2-6 (.250)
Road/Neutral Record: 4-7 (.364)
Overall SOS/Non-Conference SOS Average: 70/220 (145)
Average Net Win: 136
Average Net Loss: 37
Record vs. My Current Field of 68: 4-9 (.308)

OHIO STATE
KPI/NET Average: 39/44 (41.5)
Quad 1 Wins/Record: 4/4-5 (.444)
Quad 1 + 2 Wins/Record: 7/7-7 (.500)
Best 3 NET Wins/Total: 111 (@ Cincinnati 22, @ Nebraska 38, @ Indiana 51)
True Road Wins/Record: 5/5-3 (.625)
Road/Neutral Record: 6-3 (.667)
Overall SOS/Non-Conference SOS Average: 58/131 (94.5)
Average Net Win: 140
Average Net Loss: 39
Record vs. My Current Field of 68: 4-6 (.400)

PEELING THE ONION (at-large pecking order)
1. Ohio State (17.5)
2. Minnesota (26)
3. Indiana (27)
4. Nebraska (29.9)

Worth noting, head-to-head records vs. the other 3:

Ohio State (3-0)
Nebraska (2-2)
Minnesota (1-2)
Indiana (0-2)
 

Very interesting comparison here. Thanks SelectionSunday.

Looking purely at the numbers certainly doesn't lead me to the conclusion we need to expand the tournament to more teams.
 


Have them in the same order

Ohio St 9 seed
Gophers 12 seed (Last 4 In)
Indiana First 4 Out
Nebraska Next 4 Out
 

If the Gophers win against Rutgers and Northwestern but lose the other three against the ranked teams, the Gophers would have a 19-12 record. 8 of the 12 losses would have come against AP Top 25 teams (assuming the rankings remain the same as they are right now the rest of the way).. 8 of our 12 losses would be against the top 25 teams in the country (I'm not including Ohio State even though they were ranked when we played and lost to them; only taking account the AP rankings as they stand today, so I am including the loss to Maryland earlier, even though they were not ranked at the time; For the record, the 4 non-ranked teams we lost to are Boston College, Ohio State, Illinois and Nebraska).. 8 of 12 losses against an AP ranked team. That's pretty brutal.

In the last tournament team under Tubby, only 5 of its 12 regular season losses came against a team that was ranked when they played them (I know it's not apples and oranges, because, as I explained above, the 8 of 12 number is from current/projected final AP rankings, as opposed to the ranking of teams when we played them--I'm to lazy to look up the final AP rankings and compare them to our schedule that year).

Now, obviously we had some impressive wins that season, but to think this current team might be punished for playing a brutal schedule is pretty crazy. Three of the four non-ranked losses came against teams that will likely be on the bubble (albeit, the very edge of the bubble, in some cases): Ohio State, Illinois, Nebraska.
 


Thinking about this more... If the Gophers do beat Rutgers and Northwestern but lose to the three ranked teams, the Gophers would have lost to 9 teams all season (They would've loss to Michigan, Purdue, and Maryland twice, which explains why 12 of their losses were only against 9 teams). As of right now, 5 of those 9 teams are ranked in the AP Top 25. If the season ends the way it is projected, the Gophers would only have 4 losses against non-AP-ranked teams: Boston College, Ohio St., Illinois, and Nebraska.

More importantly, our 4 non-AP-ranked losses were all on the road. Assuming the selection committee forgives teams for losing to AP Top 25 teams regardless if they are played home or away, the only 4 losses the committee should be looking at is @Boston College, @Ohio St., @Illinois and @Nebraska.

For whatever it's worth, @Boston College was a Quad2 loss, @Ohio St. was a Quad1 loss, @Illinois was a Quad2 loss and @Nebraska was a Quad1 loss.

So, of the Gophers' 4 non-AP-ranked-team losses, two were Quad1 and two were Quad2. Do the Gophers have enough quality wins to rectify those losses?

These are the Gophers Quad1 and Quad 2 wins (chronological):
Texas A&M (Neutral) - Quad2
Washington (Neutral) - Quad1
Oklahoma State (Neutral) - Quad2
Nebraska - Quad2
@Wisconsin - Quad1
Iowa - Quad 1
Indiana - Quad 2
Penn St. - Quad 2

8 Quad1 and Quad2 wins as of right now. Because this exercise is assuming losses to Michigan, Purdue, and Maryland but wins against Rutgers and Northwestern, a win agains the Bobcats would put us at 9 Quad1 and Quad 2 wins.

That means the Gophers would have gone 9-12 in Quad1 and Quad2 games. And remember, 8 of those 12 Quad1 and Quad2 losses would have been against AP Top 25 teams (if the rankings remain as they do the rest of the way).

EDIT: I get that I could have just done tl;dr and posted our Quad1 and Quad2 record, but I think it is important to remember that not all Quad1 games are the same. At the moment, 5 of our 9 losses have come against teams that are ranked right now.
 
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