Field of 68 Projection (through Feb. 10)

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SelectionSunday

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NET rankings in parentheses and are through games played Feb. 12.

FIELD OF 68

America East (1): Vermont (67)

American (3): *Houston (5), Cincinnati (23), UCF (45)

ACC (9): *Duke (1), Virginia (3), North Carolina (9), Virginia Tech (13), Louisville (16), Florida State (26), NC State (37), Clemson (39), Syracuse (47)

ASUN (1): Lipscomb (30)

Atlantic 10 (1): VCU (43)

Big East (5): Marquette (19), *Villanova (21), Saint John's (48), Butler (53), Seton Hall (69)

Big Sky (1): Montana (111)

Big South (1): Radford (123)

B1G (9): Michigan State (7), *Michigan (8), Purdue (11), Wisconsin (15), Maryland (22), Iowa (29), Ohio State (36), Indiana (49), GOPHERS (58)

Big XII (7): Texas Tech (10), Iowa State (17), Kansas (18), *Kansas State (25), Baylor (32), TCU (33), Texas (34)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (108)

CAA (1): Hofstra (51)

Conference USA (1): Old Dominion (84)

Horizon (1): Northern Kentucky (104)

Ivy (1): Yale (62)

MAAC (1): Monmouth (275)

MAC (1): Buffalo (24)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (251)

Missouri Valley (1): Loyola-Chicago (114)

Mountain West (1): Nevada (12)

NEC (1): Robert Morris (259)

OVC (1): Belmont (60)

Pac 12 (2): *Washington (31), Arizona State (72)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (152)

SEC (8): *Tennessee (4), Kentucky (6), LSU (14), Auburn (20), Mississippi State (27), Ole Miss (35), Alabama (44), Arkansas (63)

SoCon (1): Wofford (28)

Southland (1): Sam Houston State (170)

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M (230)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (93)

Sun Belt (1): Texas State (113)

WCC (1): Gonzaga (2)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (59)
____________________________

Last 4 In: UCF (45), Indiana (49), Butler (53), Arkansas (63)

First 4 Out: Utah State (38), Oklahoma (41), NC-Greensboro (46), Temple (55)

Movin' On In: Arkansas, Bucknell, Butler, Clemson, Monmouth, NC State, Seton Hall, Texas State, Yale

Movin' On Out: Bowling Green, Davidson, Georgia State, Lehigh, NC-Greensboro, Oklahoma, Princeton, Rider, Utah State

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (2): Cincinnati (23), UCF (45)

Gophers vs. Projected Field of 68: 3-6 (Iowa W, Maryland L, @ Michigan L, @ Michigan State L, @ Ohio State L, @ Purdue L, vs. Washington W, @ Wisconsin W, Wisconsin L
 
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This opinion is specific to Indiana but encompasses my feelings in general. I wish the NCAA would make a rule that you had to be at least .500 in conference to make the tourney. I don't care about NET, RPI, SAGRIN, LMNOP, if you can't win half your games in conference, you shouldn't play in the tourney. I'd rather see good and fun small conference teams. Just IMO.
 

TNGophfan said:
This opinion is specific to Indiana but encompasses my feelings in general. I wish the NCAA would make a rule that you had to be at least .500 in conference to make the tourney. I don't care about NET, RPI, SAGRIN, LMNOP, if you can't win half your games in conference, you shouldn't play in the tourney. I'd rather see good and fun small conference teams. Just IMO.
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1. That very likely means we aren’t making it because there’s a strong chance we go 9-11.

2. Indiana beat Marquette and Louisville. I think they will likely miss out due to overall record if they stay on this path but that’s as good or better than our big wins of @WI and Washington.
 

TNGophfan said:
This opinion is specific to Indiana but encompasses my feelings in general. I wish the NCAA would make a rule that you had to be at least .500 in conference to make the tourney. I don't care about NET, RPI, SAGRIN, LMNOP, if you can't win half your games in conference, you shouldn't play in the tourney. I'd rather see good and fun small conference teams. Just IMO.
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I don’t disagree with you.

It will never happen because it would hurt the major conferences, but I’m a proponent of the must be .500 in conference requirement. But the caveat is that would include conference tournament games. I think Joe Lunardi was the first person I saw bring this up.

So (for example) a 10-10 Big Ten team would have to win a conference tourney game just to be eligible for at-large bid. Or (another example), a 9-11 team would have to win 3 just to be eligible. Certainly would add a little extra juice to most of the major conference tournaments.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I don’t disagree with you.

It will never happen because it would hurt the major conferences, but I’m a proponent of the must be .500 in conference requirement. But the caveat is that would include conference tournament games. I think Joe Lunardi was the first person I saw bring this up.

So (for example) a 10-10 Big Ten team would have to win a conference tourney game just to be eligible for at-large bid. Or (another example), a 9-11 team would have to win 3 just to be eligible. Certainly would add a little extra juice to most of the major conference tournaments.
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Good points. I would be good with that (not that anybody in power cares about what I think).
 


RickDornsby said:
1. That very likely means we aren’t making it because there’s a strong chance we go 9-11.

2. Indiana beat Marquette and Louisville. I think they will likely miss out due to overall record if they stay on this path but that’s as good or better than our big wins of @WI and Washington.
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Indiana also has that pesky little win at Michigan State. Still i do not think they will make it. Have thought for years that no one under .500 in any conference should not get in.
 

I really hope teams like Buffalo, Wofford, Lispcomb and Belmont lose their conference tournaments(and get in as at larges) because seeing the last 4 in makes me want to puke. I mean for christ sakes a team like UCF is 3-3 against the top 100 of the NET, has a Q4 loss, no Q1 wins, and they are still in contention? That's atrocious. Give it to a team like UNC Greensboro, at least they don't have any bad losses and actually HAVE a Q1 win. Not calling you out specifically SS, just an overall general thought.
 

Gophers7633 said:
I really hope teams like Buffalo, Wofford, Lispcomb and Belmont lose their conference tournaments(and get in as at larges) because seeing the last 4 in makes me want to puke. I mean for christ sakes a team like UCF is 3-3 against the top 100 of the NET, has a Q4 loss, no Q1 wins, and they are still in contention? That's atrocious. Give it to a team like UNC Greensboro, at least they don't have any bad losses and actually HAVE a Q1 win. Not calling you out specifically SS, just an overall general thought.
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No offense taken. I, too, would like to see some of the high-quality mid-majors that don’t win their confefence tourney get in.
 

Big week for the Gophers NCAA tournament hopes and Pitino.

While I don't think it's required that they sweep this weeks games, it would definitely open up their margin of error. At the same time, every tournament team is beating Nebraska right now and you want to defend your home court against a team that's in a similar, somewhat worse, position for a NCAA tournament berth.

For Pitino, he has to stop this losing streak at Nebraska. If he doesn't, then at home vs. Indiana is almost a must win.
 



Winona Gopher said:
Big week for the Gophers NCAA tournament hopes and Pitino.

While I don't think it's required that they sweep this weeks games, it would definitely open up their margin of error. At the same time, every tournament team is beating Nebraska right now and you want to defend your home court against a team that's in a similar, somewhat worse, position for a NCAA tournament berth.

For Pitino, he has to stop this losing streak at Nebraska. If he doesn't, then at home vs. Indiana is almost a must win.
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Both games are must wins, especially from a psychological perspective. Team not mentally tough enough to recover from another setback. Wheels fall off if we don't go 2-0.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Winona Gopher said:
Big week for the Gophers NCAA tournament hopes and Pitino.

While I don't think it's required that they sweep this weeks games, it would definitely open up their margin of error. At the same time, every tournament team is beating Nebraska right now and you want to defend your home court against a team that's in a similar, somewhat worse, position for a NCAA tournament berth.

For Pitino, he has to stop this losing streak at Nebraska. If he doesn't, then at home vs. Indiana is almost a must win.
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If they lose to Nebraska, their NCAA hopes drop from 50/50 to 10%. If they lose both, they're done. There is zero chance they're going 4-1 in the last 5. Both games this week are basically must win.
 

howeda7 said:
If they lose to Nebraska, their NCAA hopes drop from 50/50 to 10%. If they lose both, they're done. There is zero chance they're going 4-1 in the last 5. Both games this week are basically must win.
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I agree with this.

I also think if they lose to Nebraska, the wheels will fall off and they lose out. They aren't mentally tough and a defeat to Nebraska will certainly put them in more of a tailspin than they are already in.
 

For whatever it’s worth, TeamRankings, which puts their Sagarin/KenPom-like projections ahead to future games puts our tournament odds at 13.4% right now. Of course that is probably being a bit nice to how good Nebraska currently is and things like that. Projected record is 18.3-12.7 so it thinks we will finish 2-5, maybe 3-4.

We will probably be underdogs in 6 of the final 7 games. A lot of them will feature close spreads, though.
 



howeda7 said:
If they lose to Nebraska, their NCAA hopes drop from 50/50 to 10%. If they lose both, they're done. There is zero chance they're going 4-1 in the last 5. Both games this week are basically must win.
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They don’t need 4 wins to make tourney.

3 wins an a BTT win gets them in.
Look how awful the bubble is
 

Some guy said:
They don’t need 4 wins to make tourney.

3 wins an a BTT win gets them in.
Look how awful the bubble is
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Maybe, but I don’t think so. Don’t forget, we can count on a few bids being stolen in conference tournaments. The bubble will shrink, and even with a “weak” bubble (if that’s the case) 20-13 would be pretty dicey territory.
 

At 16-8, 6-7 in Conference we desperately need a sweep this week to feel good on Selection Sunday.

Win @Nebraska
Win Indiana

This gets us to 18-8 and 8-7 with the following schedule for the rest of the regular season:

Michigan - Home dogs
@Rutgers - Will we be favored? Quad 1 win on the road at this point.
@Northwestern - Not really much different than @Rutgers
Purdue - Home dogs
@Maryland - This is the third easiest of the last 5.

I think if we sweep the week, we are in with winning 2 of the last 5. Biting nails time if we lost either to Rutgers or Northwestern cause then we would need help in the tournament.
 

NET rankings (above) have been updated through games played Feb. 10 (Sunday).
 

Otis said:
At 16-8, 6-7 in Conference we desperately need a sweep this week to feel good on Selection Sunday.

Win @Nebraska
Win Indiana

This gets us to 18-8 and 8-7 with the following schedule for the rest of the regular season:

Michigan - Home dogs
@Rutgers - Will we be favored? Quad 1 win on the road at this point.
@Northwestern - Not really much different than @Rutgers
Purdue - Home dogs
@Maryland - This is the third easiest of the last 5.

I think if we sweep the week, we are in with winning 2 of the last 5. Biting nails time if we lost either to Rutgers or Northwestern cause then we would need help in the tournament.
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@Maryland is likely the toughest game. Maryland is a bit inferior to Purdue and Michigan but you get nearly an 8 point swing in venue. Instead of playing Purdue at home where you get ~4 points in spread, you play Maryland and lose ~4 points.

We’re projected to lose by 7 to Michigan, 6 to Purdue, and 9 to Maryland in KenPom.
 

We differ on 4.

I have Oklahoma, Utah St, Temple, and UNC-Greensboro in.
I have Butler, Indiana, Arkansas, and NC State out.

Last 4 In: UNC-Greensboro, Temple, Seton Hall, Minnesota
First 4 Out: Toledo, Butler, Indiana, Creighton
 

Purdue is going down at Williams

Gophers are gonna' win one of their remaining Big Boy games. My call is it's Purdue. Boilers aren't beating the Gophers twice.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Gophers are gonna' win one of their remaining Big Boy games. My call is it's Purdue. Boilers aren't beating the Gophers twice.
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Love your optimism, Hodger! This board needs some!

I'd rather have it be Michigan if only because it comes sooner. I'll take either, or both, better yet.
 


SelectionSunday said:
Gophers are gonna' win one of their remaining Big Boy games. My call is it's Purdue. Boilers aren't beating the Gophers twice.
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If your picking one out of Michigan, Purdue, or @Maryland, I can't argue with you about Purdue or the other two games! I could see us winning any of them to tell you the truth.

However, my Psychic tells me the Gophers will be shooting well on March 8th. I've also checked the stars and they will be in alignment as well that day! So I'm going with Maryland!

If we knew when and where the Gophers catch fire from deep we could predict this stuff easy.
 

I really don't like the "MUST WIN" scenario ….. it's used way to much.

if we are at 9 wins and have one game to play....yes ….MUST WIN. All the rest are important games.
 

Gopherbbdude;1692655[B said:
]I really don't like the "MUST WIN" scenario[/B] ….. it's used way to much.

if we are at 9 wins and have one game to play....yes ….MUST WIN. All the rest are important games.
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But then we can't panic! And that's no fun.
 

Okay, so this maybe belongs on the NET post but I'm posting it here anyway. What are the odds of us not getting in, and although hard to pinpoint on what we were lacking, because of our low NET ranking?

Lets throw out this scenario that probably wont happen but could and I like to speculate. If we only win the 4 easier games left (NW, IU, Rutgers, and Neb), then lose the rest of the regular season games, and go 1-1 in the BTT, do we get in? I see someone has us on the bubble and SS has us out?


The point was made that the bubble is always shrinking and we don't really know what else will happen, which is true. Its also hard to say it was because of the NET specifically when comparing two teams' resumes as so many thing will have small differences, but I still think the low NET ranking could hurt us come selection sunday.
 


SelectionSunday said:
Maybe, but I don’t think so. Don’t forget, we can count on a few bids being stolen in conference tournaments. The bubble will shrink, and even with a “weak” bubble (if that’s the case) 20-13 would be pretty dicey territory.
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If 20-13 is dicey territory, then 21-13 because we also won @rutgers isnt a lock
 

Some guy said:
If 20-13 is dicey territory, then 21-13 because we also won @rutgers isnt a lock
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We'd be 21-12 in that scenario, but either way 21 wins is an absolute stone cold lock for this team this year.
 

In true Gophers fashion we finish 9-11 in the B1G and win two games in the B1G tournament. Then beg.
 

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