I hope the Gophers are highly efficient tonight against Illinois!

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Dano564

Dano564

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Gophers currently at 50 in NET rating.

I hope their offense is highly efficient tonight.
We average about 69-70 possessions per game (about 35 per half). With that many possessions, I hope we improve our points per possession to at least 1.12 up from our 1.09 average right now.

Defensively, we need to get our points per possession closer to the top 25 teams with a 93.7 points per 100 possessions. We are currently around 97.
To help everyone out, here are some goals for tonight's first and second halves based on the number of possessions.

Hopefully BTN starts to employ a possession counter to make it easier on the fans. (like a pitch count in baseball).


Possessions - Pts - Points allowed
30 33.6 28.1
31 34.7 29.0
32 35.8 30.0
33 37.0 30.9
34 38.1 31.9
35 39.2 32.8
36 40.3 33.7
37 41.4 34.7
38 42.6 35.6
39 43.7 36.5
40 44.8 37.5


If we can start to broaden our net margin per possession per 100 possessions closer to 18 instead of 12, we could be a top 25 team (top 6 seed).
 
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I get the logic of what you are saying and will acknowledge that my feelings are probably influenced by us not being an efficient team, but if I were to see a possession efficiency counter on the screen tonight I think my head might explode. Just want to know if we win or lose, not have to think about how we are winning or losing. Just me. Although your point is certainly well taken that if efficiency is a big deal, why not be up front about it, I guess.
 



Key will be how our guards handle the pressure from Illini guards. Is Oturu playing?
 



ltf said:
I get the logic of what you are saying and will acknowledge that my feelings are probably influenced by us not being an efficient team, but if I were to see a possession efficiency counter on the screen tonight I think my head might explode. Just want to know if we win or lose, not have to think about how we are winning or losing. Just me. Although your point is certainly well taken that if efficiency is a big deal, why not be up front about it, I guess.
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That's what's kind of strange about the whole thing. Efficiency matters which means scoring margin matters. Plus, if you lose, it better be as close as possible.

Losing games by 3-4 instead of 9-10 evidently can play a big role.
Five points of net efficiency is enough to move you up the polls by 20 spots.
Poor free throw shooting to finish wins can cost you pretty significantly.

With about 66-67 possessions a game, 2 missed free throw can mean 3 efficiency points. Three points of "efficiency" on average across all games move you from 53rd to about 40th.
 
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Appreciate the thread. Obviously the players should not be thinking about this, but cool for us fans to track..

Obviously in college football, the strength of a win is taken into account by the AP voters. If the #3 team in the country scathes by with a win against a mediocre/poor team, AP voters definitely take that into account. That's why football teams know that in order to separate themselves from other contenders, they got to blow out opponents.

Having said that, feels like efficiency and margin of victory should not be considered as much in basketball. But whatever
 

Face The Facts said:
Gophers currently at 50 in NET rating.

I hope their offense is highly efficient tonight.
We average about 69-70 possessions per game (about 35 per half). With that many possessions, I hope we improve our points per possession to at least 1.12 up from our 1.09 average right now.

Defensively, we need to get our points per possession closer to the top 25 teams with a 93.7 points per 100 possessions. We are currently around 97.
To help everyone out, here are some goals for tonight's first and second halves based on the number of possessions.

Hopefully BTN starts to employ a possession counter to make it easier on the fans. (like a pitch count in baseball).


Possessions - Pts - Points allowed
30 33.6 28.1
31 34.7 29.0
32 35.8 30.0
33 37.0 30.9
34 38.1 31.9
35 39.2 32.8
36 40.3 33.7
37 41.4 34.7
38 42.6 35.6
39 43.7 36.5
40 44.8 37.5


If we can start to broaden our net margin per possession per 100 possessions closer to 18 instead of 12, we could be a top 25 team (top 6 seed).
Click to expand...

Counting on being more efficient than last time we played them. Not hard to see either when you have few turnovers, take good shots and play great defense it is easy to watch without even thinking about it. Great basketball is very easy to watch and to understand.
 



big10guy said:
Key will be how our guards handle the pressure from Illini guards. Is Oturu playing?
Click to expand...

Not unless IW has a great game. One thing I learned a long time ago. Defense doesn’t come game to game. Illinois gets after it. They get under you when u are dribbling. There is only one guy who gets as low as them. Mcbrayer and Coffey are to slow to guard them.
 

gopherhoopsguy said:
Not unless IW has a great game. One thing I learned a long time ago. Defense doesn’t come game to game. Illinois gets after it. They get under you when u are dribbling. There is only one guy who gets as low as them. Mcbrayer and Coffey are to slow to guard them.
Click to expand...

Boom! Nice game IW
 

Thank God we won by double digits. This was more nerve wrecking than the Penn State game.
 




IW had his most efficient game of his career tonight. He was very good on both ends of the court. I don't think he had a turnover.
 

howeda7 said:
Who has time for the eye test anymore? You need 4 spreadsheets open during every game.
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True, next year we won’t even have a tourney.

They will just crown the champ based on who gives up the fewest points per possession and who scores the most.

They will throw in a magic multiplier to adjust for strength of schedule. And voila, there is your theoretical national champion
 

Some guy said:
True, next year we won’t even have a tourney.

They will just crown the champ based on who gives up the fewest points per possession and who scores the most.

They will throw in a magic multiplier to adjust for strength of schedule. And voila, there is your theoretical national champion
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UVa would be 5 time defending champs. They're sooo efficient in the regular season. And then choke in the NCAA's. But at least BuildtBadger would be thrilled.
 

howeda7 said:
UVa would be 5 time defending champs. They're sooo efficient in the regular season. And then choke in the NCAA's. But at least BuildtBadger would be thrilled.
Click to expand...

Wisconsin has lost to Virginia in 8 of the last 11 theoretical national championship games
 


Because I'm a geek, this is what I have.

Our offensive efficiency went down tonight.
I calculate 90.4 possessions per the KenPom formula.
With 86 points, that gives us 95.09 points per 100 possessions. We came in at 109.8. Now we are down to around 109.1

Our defense improved however.
Illinois appears to have had 93.4 possessions per the formula. With only 75 points, that's a defensive efficiency of 80.2. (We were at 97.6) and now over the season we are at about 96.8.

Our spread between the two numbers coming in was 12.19 which was 53 on Ken Pom.
We increased that slightly to 12.32. (Barely anything, but enough to maybe move us up from 54 to 53. (also depending on other games).

It's a win but it does almost nothing for efficiency ratings.

Try again Gophers. We need to win more efficiently in the future.
 

Face The Facts said:
Because I'm a geek, this is what I have.

Our offensive efficiency went down tonight.
I calculate 90.4 possessions per the KenPom formula.
With 86 points, that gives us 95.09 points per 100 possessions. We came in at 109.8. Now we are down to around 109.1

Our defense improved however.
Illinois appears to have had 93.4 possessions per the formula. With only 75 points, that's a defensive efficiency of 80.2. (We were at 97.6) and now over the season we are at about 96.8.

Our spread between the two numbers coming in was 12.19 which was 53 on Ken Pom.
We increased that slightly to 12.32. (Barely anything, but enough to maybe move us up from 54 to 53. (also depending on other games).

It's a win but it does almost nothing for efficiency ratings.

Try again Gophers. We need to win more efficiently in the future.
Click to expand...

Yup
 

Some guy said:
Wisconsin has lost to Virginia in 8 of the last 11 theoretical national championship games
Click to expand...

Never said the tournament does not count . Let me know when we accomplish anywhere near what UVA has accomplished. Our coaches Daddy thinks Bennett is the best in the business. Went like 1-9 against him. We brag about being over .500 once in awhile, they win multiple ACC titles. You sound foolish making fun of programs that Jerry West, Pat Riley and the Pitinos love watching. Just remember, we have a NIT title. I for one wish we were nearly as successful as UVA and the only way to get their is to be efficient. That is a fact. You sound like frustrated fans who never get to see success. I share a example of how it gets done by any power 6 champ, look it up. It is done by high efficiency. And you take shots at programs that dwarf ours. If Bennett had that success here there would be sellout crowds, no debt on the facilities and no scandals. You make fun of the tourney but you have to get there first. UW we need not address very long as we only need 20 straight appearances and 3 final 4's before any comparison and they did it with high efficency. Duke, MSU and Villanova and every single winning program does it that way too. It takes minimal research. In fact it is how we won tonight, less turnovers, better shot selection and way better defense. Actually talked to Jeter about this on Monday. He played for a coach who taught it really well. Lets try and win a conference title.
 

Doing some more math here.

We are about 90 points away from being top 25 in Ken Pom (and therefore probably NET).

If we could have blown out.... (I mean... been more efficient) in our weakest 5 games by beating each one by an additional 10 points each. And Only lost to Illinois by 10 instead of 27.
That right there would have gotten us into the top 35 with the same record.

Lose to Ohio St by 15 instead of 20 and Maryland by 10 instead of 15, we'd be right around 30th.
 

Face The Facts said:
Because I'm a geek, this is what I have.

Our offensive efficiency went down tonight.
I calculate 90.4 possessions per the KenPom formula.
With 86 points, that gives us 95.09 points per 100 possessions. We came in at 109.8. Now we are down to around 109.1

Our defense improved however.
Illinois appears to have had 93.4 possessions per the formula. With only 75 points, that's a defensive efficiency of 80.2. (We were at 97.6) and now over the season we are at about 96.8.

Our spread between the two numbers coming in was 12.19 which was 53 on Ken Pom.
We increased that slightly to 12.32. (Barely anything, but enough to maybe move us up from 54 to 53. (also depending on other games).

It's a win but it does almost nothing for efficiency ratings.

Try again Gophers. We need to win more efficiently in the future.
Click to expand...

How do they compare to the last Illinois game where we puked all over our self. they will add up to the point differential in pig slaughter loss and comfortable victory. All the conference champions and NCAA champions are super in OE-DE total every single year without exception.
 

builtbadgers said:
Never said the tournament does not count . Let me know when we accomplish anywhere near what UVA has accomplished. Our coaches Daddy thinks Bennett is the best in the business. Went like 1-9 against him. We brag about being over .500 once in awhile, they win multiple ACC titles. You sound foolish making fun of programs that Jerry West, Pat Riley and the Pitinos love watching. Just remember, we have a NIT title. I for one wish we were nearly as successful as UVA and the only way to get their is to be efficient. That is a fact. You sound like frustrated fans who never get to see success. I share a example of how it gets done by any power 6 champ, look it up. It is done by high efficiency. And you take shots at programs that dwarf ours. If Bennett had that success here there would be sellout crowds, no debt on the facilities and no scandals. You make fun of the tourney but you have to get there first. UW we need not address very long as we only need 20 straight appearances and 3 final 4's before any comparison and they did it with high efficency. Duke, MSU and Villanova and every single winning program does it that way too. It takes minimal research. In fact it is how we won tonight, less turnovers, better shot selection and way better defense. Actually talked to Jeter about this on Monday. He played for a coach who taught it really well. Lets try and win a conference title.
Click to expand...

You make some good points, but offensively we weren't that efficient tonight. We were below average for our season offensively. The rate of the game was just higher with more possessions.
 

Face The Facts said:
Because I'm a geek, this is what I have.

Our offensive efficiency went down tonight.
I calculate 90.4 possessions per the KenPom formula.
With 86 points, that gives us 95.09 points per 100 possessions. We came in at 109.8. Now we are down to around 109.1

Our defense improved however.
Illinois appears to have had 93.4 possessions per the formula. With only 75 points, that's a defensive efficiency of 80.2. (We were at 97.6) and now over the season we are at about 96.8.

Our spread between the two numbers coming in was 12.19 which was 53 on Ken Pom.
We increased that slightly to 12.32. (Barely anything, but enough to maybe move us up from 54 to 53. (also depending on other games).

It's a win but it does almost nothing for efficiency ratings.

Try again Gophers. We need to win more efficiently in the future.
Click to expand...

I just shake my head.

The implications are sillier than we have even discussed. There is a real possibility that sending IW to the hoop with 25 left in the shot clock up 8 points is better for your team than working the clock to win the game . It isn't just a different way of measuring things, it might actually be counter intuitive to the point of competitive sports since its inception.
 

builtbadgers said:
Never said the tournament does not count . Let me know when we accomplish anywhere near what UVA has accomplished. Our coaches Daddy thinks Bennett is the best in the business. Went like 1-9 against him. We brag about being over .500 once in awhile, they win multiple ACC titles. You sound foolish making fun of programs that Jerry West, Pat Riley and the Pitinos love watching. Just remember, we have a NIT title. I for one wish we were nearly as successful as UVA and the only way to get their is to be efficient. That is a fact. You sound like frustrated fans who never get to see success. I share a example of how it gets done by any power 6 champ, look it up. It is done by high efficiency. And you take shots at programs that dwarf ours. If Bennett had that success here there would be sellout crowds, no debt on the facilities and no scandals. You make fun of the tourney but you have to get there first. UW we need not address very long as we only need 20 straight appearances and 3 final 4's before any comparison and they did it with high efficency. Duke, MSU and Villanova and every single winning program does it that way too. It takes minimal research. In fact it is how we won tonight, less turnovers, better shot selection and way better defense. Actually talked to Jeter about this on Monday. He played for a coach who taught it really well. Lets try and win a conference title.
Click to expand...

You aren’t very smart if you thought I was saying Wisconsin and Virginia are bad programs.


Leave in your starters and tell them to play hard.
Beat Mount st Mary’s by 28 instead of 18
Beat north Florida by 19 instead of 9
Beat Arkansas state by 26 instead of 16
Lose to Illinois by 15 instead of 27
Lose to Maryland by 10 instead of 15
Beat Nebraska Omaha by 49 instead of 29

All of a sudden we are 30th in efficiency.
That’s where effiency fails. No doubt being more effienct matters. Long run. What really matters is being effienct against good teams and in key moments.
 
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Face The Facts said:
Doing some more math here.

We are about 90 points away from being top 25 in Ken Pom (and therefore probably NET).

If we could have blown out.... (I mean... been more efficient) in our weakest 5 games by beating each one by an additional 10 points each. And Only lost to Illinois by 10 instead of 27.
That right there would have gotten us into the top 35 with the same record.

Lose to Ohio St by 15 instead of 20 and Maryland by 10 instead of 15, we'd be right around 30th.
Click to expand...


Yup.

Which is why efficiency rankings are good as one metric of many, but they hardly tell the whole story.
 

Face The Facts said:
Doing some more math here.

We are about 90 points away from being top 25 in Ken Pom (and therefore probably NET).

If we could have blown out.... (I mean... been more efficient) in our weakest 5 games by beating each one by an additional 10 points each. And Only lost to Illinois by 10 instead of 27.
That right there would have gotten us into the top 35 with the same record.

Lose to Ohio St by 15 instead of 20 and Maryland by 10 instead of 15, we'd be right around 30th.
Click to expand...

Better do the math again and then remember that any team can say that. It does get much closer if none of them accomplish their ifs or what i call not getting done. IT would mainly be done by turning it over 20% less and playing defense nationally in the top 40 in PPP. The gap from top 25 to top 50 is narrow. The shock this year is the giant gap after the top few. I have said all along that we should be a top 25 team and that we can do that this year by playing top 25 basketball
 

builtbadgers said:
How do they compare to the last Illinois game where we puked all over our self. they will add up to the point differential in pig slaughter loss and comfortable victory. All the conference champions and NCAA champions are super in OE-DE total every single year without exception.
Click to expand...

Let me dig up that box score...

In that game, calculated offensive possessions for our offense was 87.4. 68 points. That's .778 per possession or an offensive eff of 77.84
Defensively 92.6 possessions. 95 points allowed. 1.02 pts per possession. Def Eff of 102.59.

That's a spread of -24.753. (that's Chicago St level performance).
If we lose that 78 to 88 our spread would have been -5.74 instead.

17 points essentially has us at #54 right now instead of #50.
 

builtbadgers said:
Better do the math again and then remember that any team can say that. It does get much closer if none of them accomplish their ifs or what i call not getting done. IT would mainly be done by turning it over 20% less and playing defense nationally in the top 40 in PPP. The gap from top 25 to top 50 is narrow. The shock this year is the giant gap after the top few. I have said all along that we should be a top 25 team and that we can do that this year by playing top 25 basketball
Click to expand...

I don't think anything is wrong with my math. If you see an error, spell it out so we can all correct it and learn accordingly.

But your point is true. Any team can say it, but I think it may have been lost on Pitino early on that continuing to blow out teams is needed. Losing within 15 is needed instead of losing by 20.
When you start to feel a game slip away, you need to slow down, get a very good shot, and forget about trying to win. Just kill the game and try to end it as fast as possible.
 

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