Gophers Path to NCAA Tournament Bid? Schedule says 21 wins should do it

Donate To GopherHole
S

SelectionSunday

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 12, 2008
Messages
25,131
Reaction score
5,920
Points
113
I'm setting the number at 21 wins for the Gophers to be "safely" in the Field of 68 heading to the Big Ten Tournament, regardless how they fare in Chicago, no questions asked. Here's how I break it down.

The Big Boys (no worse than 2-3)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (in Vancouver)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 21: Michigan

50-50s (no worse than 4-4)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State
Dec. 5: Nebraska
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' (no worse than 6-3)
Nov. 12: Utah
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (in Vancouver)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (U.S. Bank Stadium)
Jan. 8: Maryland
Jan. 16: @ Illinois
Jan. 27: Iowa
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern
March 5: Purdue

Should Be Expected to Win (win 'em all, 9-0)
Nov. 6: Omaha
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (in Vancouver)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State
Dec. 11: North Florida
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's
Jan. 12: Rutgers
Jan. 19: Penn State
Jan. 30: Illinois

Rough Estimation
Non-Conference: 9-2
Big Ten: 12-8

Key to Season
Home Losses: 2 at the absolute max
 
Last edited:

Hey it's back! The Road to 21! The 50-50's look like the hardest target to meet in my mind.
 

golfing18now said:
Hey it's back! The Road to 21! The 50-50's look like the hardest target to meet in my mind.
Click to expand...

I thought you might like it. I skipped last year because I thought there was no way the Gophers would land on the bubble, and look what happened! I was right, but not in the way I thought.

Agree about the 50-50s. ... a lot of road games there. Gophers will need to show some stones on the road.
 
Last edited:

SelectionSunday said:
I thought you might like it. I skipped last year because I thought there was no way the Gophers would land on the bubble, and look what happened! I was right, but not the way I thought.
Click to expand...

Ha!

Love this thread, will be good to consistently refer back to it. Thanks Hodger.

Go Gophers!!
 

BleedGopher said:
Ha!

Love this thread, will be good to consistently refer back to it. Thanks Hodger.

Go Gophers!!
Click to expand...

Any time, Bleed. A nice 11-0 or even 10-1 non-conference would give 'em some margin for error. That's what I always look for pre-Big Ten season, some breathing room.
 
Last edited:


I could see them going 18-0 in the favored and expected category and going 3-10 in the other categories. This 21-10 result would in my opinion, not get them into the dance.
 

I know the Selection Committee is not relying on RPI as much, but the fact that the B1G is playing 20 conference games when some leagues only play 16 is going to help that pretty significantly one would think.
 

howeda7 said:
I know the Selection Committee is not relying on RPI as much, but the fact that the B1G is playing 20 conference games when some leagues only play 16 is going to help that pretty significantly one would think.
Click to expand...

All of the other major conferences + the next tier all play 18 conferences games. ... ACC, Big East, Big XII, Pac 12, SEC + American, A-10, and Mountain West. That's pretty much where all the at-large bids are coming from.
 

Not sure I agree that 21 is the number for "safely in". Might be good enough to do it, but it will depend where the wins come and how some of the teams who have the potential to make our schedule look better (Washington, Boston College, Okie St, Nebraska) fare. If we are at 21 Ws after the regular season and lose our first conference tournament game I know I will be nervous watching the selection show, so I wouldn't call 21 safe by any means.
 



bizzle22 said:
Not sure I agree that 21 is the number for "safely in". Might be good enough to do it, but it will depend where the wins come and how some of the teams who have the potential to make our schedule look better (Washington, Boston College, Okie St, Nebraska) fare. If we are at 21 Ws after the regular season and lose our first conference tournament game I know I will be nervous watching the selection show, so I wouldn't call 21 safe by any means.
Click to expand...

Agree that opponents' performance, who the wins are against, is crucial, as well as avoiding bad losses. I am making a general assumption the Gophers will win some of those notable games, hence the 21 number.
 
Last edited:

bizzle22 said:
Not sure I agree that 21 is the number for "safely in". Might be good enough to do it, but it will depend where the wins come and how some of the teams who have the potential to make our schedule look better (Washington, Boston College, Okie St, Nebraska) fare. If we are at 21 Ws after the regular season and lose our first conference tournament game I know I will be nervous watching the selection show, so I wouldn't call 21 safe by any means.
Click to expand...
agreed, shouldn’t 21 wins translate into at least 2 conference tourney wins? If they win 21 and only win one conference tournament game then they deserve to sweat the bubble.
 

SelectionSunday said:
All of the other major conferences + the next tier all play 18 conferences games. ... ACC, Big East, Big XII, Pac 12, SEC + American, A-10, and Mountain West. That's pretty much where all the at-large bids are coming from.
Click to expand...

Interesting. This is a good thing. I thought the SEC and maybe a couple others had stayed at 16.
 

BleedGopher said:
Ha!

Love this thread, will be good to consistently refer back to it. Thanks Hodger.

Go Gophers!!
Click to expand...
So if they go 5-3 in 50/50 but 1-4 in the toughies does that move the needle, I'm guessing with the quad system 3-2 gives them some wiggle room elsewhere

Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk
 



One loss in the non-conference seems doable. Washington feels a lot like the Providence game from last year as we’ll get a feel for where this team really is. Otherwise the non-conference seems pretty soft as others have said as there doesn’t seem to be a ton of key returning players at those other P6 schools. Can’t say I disagree with the placement of any teams. Maybe Ohio State with how young they’ll be but going to Columbus always has seemed tough for us. Hard not to get giddy for the season when you see the schedule laid out like this haha
 

GopherNuts said:
. ... Otherwise the non-conference seems pretty soft as others have said as there doesn’t seem to be a ton of key returning players at those other P6 schools.
Click to expand...

As an aside, the Gophers' non-conference schedule came in at #43 (of 75) in my preseason ranking of Power 6 non-conference schedules, and 10th in the Big Ten, ahead of Michigan, Rutgers, Northwestern, and Iowa. I would classify it as average, but one that isn't likely to kill them if they're on the bubble on Selection Sunday.
 

1-0 in Hodger's "Should Be Expected to Win (win 'em all, 9-0)" category.

Go Gophers!!
 

Thanks for putting this one together SS, this is one of my favorite threads every time you do it. One night in, we are still on pace.
 

Thanks gentlemen. The key is creating some margin for error prior to an unexpected loss. So far, so good.
 

The team is now entering a big 8 game stretch. It would have been nice to have Curry available for it. Hopefully we get an answer on Carr ASAP, or at least before Vancouver.
 

Nm
 
Last edited:

After last night's Utah win, we are 1-0 in Hodger's "Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' (no worse than 6-3)" category.

Go Gophers!!
 

Updated "Road to 21 Wins"

Bleed, I appreciate you giving this thread life. I'll update it as often as I can on the Gophers' March to the Madness

Wins Obtained: 2
Estimated Number of Additional Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 19

The Big Boys -- no worse than 2-3 (0-0)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (in Vancouver)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 21: Michigan

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (0-0)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State
Dec. 5: Nebraska
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3 (1-0)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (in Vancouver)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (U.S. Bank Stadium)
Jan. 8: Maryland
Jan. 16: @ Illinois
Jan. 27: Iowa
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern
March 5: Purdue

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (1-0)
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (in Vancouver)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State
Dec. 11: North Florida
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's
Jan. 12: Rutgers
Jan. 19: Penn State
Jan. 30: Illinois

Rough Estimation
Non-Conference: 9-2
Big Ten: 12-8

Key to Season
Home Losses: no more than 2 (2-0 so far)
 
Last edited:

After tonight's win over Texas A&M, Gophers are now 2-0 in Hodger's "Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' (no worse than 6-3)" category.

Go Gophers!!
 

Really like this thread but it's making me feel like I'm bubble watching already.
 

Mulligan said:
Really like this thread but it's making me feel like I'm bubble watching already.
Click to expand...

Let's view it as our way of watching the Gophers blow any future bubble conversation out of the water (by winning a lot more than 21)!
 

Updated through 69-64 win over Texas A&M

Wins Obtained: 3
Estimated Number of Additional Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 18

The Big Boys -- no worse than 2-3 (0-0)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (in Vancouver)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 21: Michigan

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (0-0)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State
Dec. 5: Nebraska
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3 (2-0)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (U.S. Bank Stadium)
Jan. 8: Maryland
Jan. 16: @ Illinois
Jan. 27: Iowa
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern
March 5: Purdue

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (1-0)
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (in Vancouver)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State
Dec. 11: North Florida
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's
Jan. 12: Rutgers
Jan. 19: Penn State
Jan. 30: Illinois

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 2-0 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (3-0 so far)
Big Ten: 12-8 (0-0 so far)
 

When I was a kid I used to basically do this all the time. I figured (using no logic just seemed to be the magic number) that 20 wins was usually the bubble number and if we got past that we should be ok. Anything below that and it was nail biting time. There was no BTT back then though so things were different.

Long story longer, I like this thread because it is similar to how I look at the season. This just breaks it down in ways that make sense not just gut feelings like me :D
 

Yep, very sensible way of breaking down the season. Thank you for this!

JTG
 


I believe Boston College and Washington need to be moved down a category based on their performance so far.

BC lost to IUPUI at home! By 10 points!

Washington got blown out by Auburn by 22pts and struggled to get by San Diego at home by 3. Not San Diego State, but the Gulls.

I'd say the Washington game should at least be 50-50 and I'd be surprised if we aren't favored against BC.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom