Fran Fraschilla says "if's" happen next year for U, we could be middle of pack in BT

[die hard gopher]

Oturu is currently ranked #49 overall and the #5 center in the 247 composite.

Here are last year's #3, #4, and #5 ranked centers along with their stats as freshmen...

Malik Williams (#27 overall, #3 C, Louisville) -- 10.6mpg, 41.6%FG, 3.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg
Ira Lee (#60 overall, #4 C, Arizona) -- 10.2mpg, 46.2%FG, 2.4ppg, 2.3rpg
Ike Obiagu (#63 overall, #5 C, Florida State) -- 10.7mpg, 57.9%FG, 2.3ppg, 2.6rpg

Gafford isn't a good comp at all. He doesn't play center.

Azubuike is a decent comp, but again I would refer to his freshman year stats -- 12.9mpg, 62.9%FG, 5.0ppg, 4.4rpg. He didn't really come out of his shell until his sophomore year. Big guys take a little longer to adjust.

I think Oturu will eventually be a good player for us, I just don't think it will be next year.

Those guys you listed all went to better programs and had better front court players ahead of them. They would be better comparisons if we still had Reggie next year. Oturu will likely get more than 10MPG next year.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Here are some Big Ten comparisons. I could see Oturu scoring slightly less than these examples and rebounding slightly more while blocking more shots.

Kaleb Wesson (#75 overall, #6 C, Ohio State) -- 20.7mpg, 56.2%, 10.2ppg, 4.9rpg
Bruno Fernando (#87 overall, #8 C, Maryland) -- 22.4mpg, 57.8%, 10.3ppg, 6.5rpg
Luka Garza (#118 overall, #10 C, Iowa) -- 21.7mpg, 55.7%, 12.1ppg, 6.4rpg

 

[cjbfbp]

I've never seen such wild differences in assessment of our team! Some of you are saying "Bottom of the conference" and others "Top 3". Could we settle this a different way?

2. SG - McBrayer - A healthy McBrayer is ABOVE average for a B1G SG mostly due to his defense.


5. C - Oturu - Is there even a chance a Top 50 recruit would be considered below average in the B1G at center? I'm going Average at WORST.

I agree with the majority of what you wrote, but I will differ somewhat on the two items noted above.

2) I'd say when McBrayer is healthy, he's an average Big Ten player.

5) Being a big man selected in Oturu's range is not a slam dunk probability for instant success. If you don't believe me, look up the freshman seasons of the following big men (6'9" and above), all ranked between 35-55 on the RSCI (consensus index) within the last four years (there actually aren't a lot of big men to choose from):

2016, #40, De'Ron Davis, Indiana
2016, #50, Juwan Durham, Connecticut
2016, #52, Herard Schnider, Mississippi State
2015, #40, Elijah Thomas, Texas A&M
2015, #42, Daniel Giddens, Ohio State
2015, #48, Chance Comanche, Arizona
2014, #56, Elbert Robinson III, LSU (no true big men in the range that year)

The two or three coming out in 2017 did pretty well as freshman. Of course, I could go back further just from memory. For example, Adam Woodbury, formerly of Iowa, had a very similar ranking to Oturu and he never became all that great.

I don't think your post will settle the debate.

I would also say that you mischaracterized the debate. I don't read people here saying that the Gophers will finish at the bottom of the conference. I just read people who are skeptical that Gophers will finish close to the top.

 

[bga1]

Oturu is currently ranked #49 overall and the #5 center in the 247 composite.

Here are last year's #3, #4, and #5 ranked centers along with their stats as freshmen...

Malik Williams (#27 overall, #3 C, Louisville) -- 10.6mpg, 41.6%FG, 3.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg
Ira Lee (#60 overall, #4 C, Arizona) -- 10.2mpg, 46.2%FG, 2.4ppg, 2.3rpg
Ike Obiagu (#63 overall, #5 C, Florida State) -- 10.7mpg, 57.9%FG, 2.3ppg, 2.6rpg

Gafford isn't a good comp at all. He doesn't play center.

Azubuike is a decent comp, but again I would refer to his freshman year stats -- 12.9mpg, 62.9%FG, 5.0ppg, 4.4rpg. He didn't really come out of his shell until his sophomore year. Big guys take a little longer to adjust.

I think Oturu will eventually be a good player for us, I just don't think it will be next year.

That's all well and good but a lot of it ends up being what the opportunity looks like on each team these guys play for. Is there an established player in front of that guy? What is expected out of the center and what does the system look like? I think - based on the personnel we have here and the system-Oturo has an opportunity (and the need) to step in an play 20 + minutes, give us shot blocking and rebounding and collect some easy buckets. We will have plenty of guys that can score.

 

[fryguy22]

Oturu is currently ranked #49 overall and the #5 center in the 247 composite.

Here are last year's #3, #4, and #5 ranked centers along with their stats as freshmen...

Malik Williams (#27 overall, #3 C, Louisville) -- 10.6mpg, 41.6%FG, 3.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg
Ira Lee (#60 overall, #4 C, Arizona) -- 10.2mpg, 46.2%FG, 2.4ppg, 2.3rpg
Ike Obiagu (#63 overall, #5 C, Florida State) -- 10.7mpg, 57.9%FG, 2.3ppg, 2.6rpg

Gafford isn't a good comp at all. He doesn't play center.

Azubuike is a decent comp, but again I would refer to his freshman year stats -- 12.9mpg, 62.9%FG, 5.0ppg, 4.4rpg. He didn't really come out of his shell until his sophomore year. Big guys take a little longer to adjust.

I think Oturu will eventually be a good player for us, I just don't think it will be next year.

Gafford is a good comp. Did you just look at his listed position and automatically discard him? He was the center in 4 of the 5 most frequent lineups that Arkansas played last year. He plays center for Arkansas. That being said, I tried to grab one good comp for each of the last two years ranked in the same range and show some balance (Azubuike as you said wasn't super impactful as a Fr, but had less opportunity as others have alluded to). Thanks for doing the extra work of grabbing additional comps.

 

[bizzle22]

That's all well and good but a lot of it ends up being what the opportunity looks like on each team these guys play for. Is there an established player in front of that guy? What is expected out of the center and what does the system look like? I think - based on the personnel we have here and the system-Oturo has an opportunity (and the need) to step in an play 20 + minutes, give us shot blocking and rebounding and collect some easy buckets. We will have plenty of guys that can score.

A lot of the people who expect 20+ minutes from Oturu are forgetting about Stockman. Don't know whether Matz has the skill or not, but he's five years older than Oturu, has played in 45 D1 basketball games, and spent the last four years in the strength program of a high major athletic program. Also, remember that Stockman signed with us well after Oturu committed. And I can't think of many lineups where it would make sense to have Stockman and Oturu on the floor together. All signs point to Stockman being the starter to begin the year with Oturu/Curry splitting the other 12-18 minutes per game at center. Now, if Oturu really impresses or if Stockman gets hurt then I think Daniel will be looking at 20+ minutes per game, but that won't be the plan from day 1. And I think Pitino gets that it is rare, particularly for a big guy, to be a main piece on a good B1G team.

 

[dpodoll68]

All signs point to Stockman being the starter to begin the year with Oturu/Curry splitting the other 12-18 minutes per game at center.

I don't agree with this at all. I would be shocked if Curry doesn't start at C and that the PF/C playing time in a typical game breaks down something like this:

Murphy 30
Curry 25 (20 at C, 5 at PF)
Oturu 12
Stockman 8
Omersa 5 (maybe a handful of additional minutes at SF if he can)

Curry played 20 mpg as a true freshman - I don't see why he would play any fewer with 2 additional years of maturity under his belt.

 

[cjbfbp]

Curry played 20 mpg as a true freshman - I don't see why he would play any fewer with 2 additional years of maturity under his belt.

Yes, but he backed up both front court positions - mostly at power forward but also at center (especially when Lynch fouled out) as an alternative to Bakary. Assuming he is in good shape, I don't see why he would play less than he did two years ago but Pitino's teams have utilized bigger centers when they have been capable.

 

[bizzle22]

I don't agree with this at all. I would be shocked if Curry doesn't start at C and that the PF/C playing time in a typical game breaks down something like this:

Murphy 30
Curry 25 (20 at C, 5 at PF)
Oturu 12
Stockman 8
Omersa 5 (maybe a handful of additional minutes at SF if he can)

Curry played 20 mpg as a true freshman - I don't see why he would play any fewer with 2 additional years of maturity under his belt.

You think Pitino gave Stockman a scholarship for 2 years with the plan of him having to sit out the first one and play 8mpg in the second one? If that’s the case his roster management is much worse than I thought.

 

[dpodoll68]

You think Pitino gave Stockman a scholarship for 2 years with the plan of him having to sit out the first one and play 8mpg in the second one? If that’s the case his roster management is much worse than I thought.

He gave Fitzgerald a scholarship for 3 years to play him 13.3 mpg in one season - and Fitzgerald was a much more proven collegiate player than Stockman. Whose minutes do you think are going to get cut so that a marginal 5th-year senior can get more run? I would be willing to bet a sizeable amount that the proposed minutes for Murphy and Curry are conservative, if anything. So are they just never going to play Oturu or Omersa?

 

[short ornery norwegian]

If I had to guess, I would say that C and PF will be a four-man deal: Stockman, Curry, Murphy and Oturu.

It all depends if Pitino wants to go with a big or small lineup. All four of those players could potentially play some C - Murphy did last year in the small lineup. Curry can play C or PF. Oturu could even get some minutes at PF in certain situations, depending on matchups. Stockman is the only one who is 'just' a C.

Omersa - IF he plays - will be strictly in mop-up or last minute duty. If the 4 players I mentioned stay healthy, I could even see Omersa getting red-shirted.

 

[bizzle22]

He gave Fitzgerald a scholarship for 3 years to play him 13.3 mpg in one season - and Fitzgerald was a much more proven collegiate player than Stockman. Whose minutes do you think are going to get cut so that a marginal 5th-year senior can get more run? I would be willing to bet a sizeable amount that the proposed minutes for Murphy and Curry are conservative, if anything. So are they just never going to play Oturu or Omersa?

That's a terrible example and you know it -- Pitino didn't know Fitz was going to tear his ACL right before he was finally eligible to suit up for us.

I would be willing to bet double the sizeable amount you talk about above that Stockman will average more than 8 mpg. Omersa will rarely see the floor. JO is really athletic, but also very raw.

I honestly don't think Pitino plans on playing Curry at center very often. If he does, the Stockman signing makes even less sense. Again, Stockman signed when we already had Curry on the roster and already had Oturu committed. Giving a two year scholarship to a player who will be your third center for one year makes absolutely zero sense.

Don't get me wrong, I really like Eric Curry, but some people are giving him a little too much credit. He averaged 5.5 pts and 5.2 boards per game as a freshman which are some solid numbers for a true freshman. They certainly don't scream that he's a lock to be a starter though, especially when he'd be playing somewhat out of position to do it.

 

[dpodoll68]

That's a terrible example and you know it -- Pitino didn't know Fitz was going to tear his ACL right before he was finally eligible to suit up for us.

It's a great example, actually. Your point is that he wouldn't invest 2 years in Stockman to play him so little. He invested 3 years in Fitzgerald and barely played him anyway.

I honestly don't think Pitino plans on playing Curry at center very often. If he does, the Stockman signing makes even less sense. Again, Stockman signed when we already had Curry on the roster and already had Oturu committed. Giving a two year scholarship to a player who will be your third center for one year makes absolutely zero sense.

Much of what Pitino has done (particularly with regard to incoming transfers) makes zero sense. This is one among many reasons why he's won 34.4% of his conference games. I don't know why you'd expect this to be any different.

Don't get me wrong, I really like Eric Curry, but some people are giving him a little too much credit. He averaged 5.5 pts and 5.2 boards per game as a freshman which are some solid numbers for a true freshman. They certainly don't scream that he's a lock to be a starter though, especially when he'd be playing somewhat out of position to do it.

Those numbers are actually quite good for a true freshman, particularly the rebounding numbers. If you extrapolate that out to starter's minutes (30 mpg), he'd have averaged 8.2 ppg and 7.8 rpg, fantastic for most true freshman big men. Matz Stockman has never played more than 6.2 mpg in any season. If you extrapolate his freshman numbers out to 30 mpg, you'd have 5.4 ppg and 15.3 rpg. Fantastic on the boards, but almost no threat offensively and a terrible shooter for a post player. I don't know why you assume Stockman would leapfrog someone who actually has equity in a Gopher uniform, is someone who has exhibited loyalty in choosing Pitino out of HS, and has thus far demonstrated himself to be a vastly superior player. Your logic is based on the sunk cost fallacy, making it a poor argument to begin with.

And you still never answered my question - whose minutes are going to be cut so that Stockman plays all of these minutes you've ascribed to him? You've said that Omersa won't play much if at all. Are they going to bench a local top 50 HS recruit so that a marginal 5th-year player can get all of this PT you're imagining?

 

[Keyser Söze]

It's a great example, actually. Your point is that he wouldn't invest 2 years in Stockman to play him so little. He invested 3 years in Fitzgerald and barely played him anyway.

No, it's not. He was talking about how Pitino planned/plans to use Stockman. Fitzgerald is only a good example if you think Pitino planned on him tearing his ACL again, likely losing mobility because of it, and then transferring back out before using up his eligibility. I don't know what the plan is with Stockman, but I can assure you that nothing about Fitzgerald's time here went as planned, and it was because of an unexpected circumstance that wasn't anyone's fault. You can't use that to predict anything about Stockman.

 

[bizzle22]

It's a great example, actually. Your point is that he wouldn't invest 2 years in Stockman to play him so little. He invested 3 years in Fitzgerald and barely played him anyway.



Much of what Pitino has done (particularly with regard to incoming transfers) makes zero sense. This is one among many reasons why he's won 34.4% of his conference games. I don't know why you'd expect this to be any different.



Those numbers are actually quite good for a true freshman, particularly the rebounding numbers. If you extrapolate that out to starter's minutes (30 mpg), he'd have averaged 8.2 ppg and 7.8 rpg, fantastic for most true freshman big men. Matz Stockman has never played more than 6.2 mpg in any season. If you extrapolate his freshman numbers out to 30 mpg, you'd have 5.4 ppg and 15.3 rpg. Fantastic on the boards, but almost no threat offensively and a terrible shooter for a post player. I don't know why you assume Stockman would leapfrog someone who actually has equity in a Gopher uniform, is someone who has exhibited loyalty in choosing Pitino out of HS, and has thus far demonstrated himself to be a vastly superior player. Your logic is based on the sunk cost fallacy, making it a poor argument to begin with.

And you still never answered my question - whose minutes are going to be cut so that Stockman plays all of these minutes you've ascribed to him? You've said that Omersa won't play much if at all. Are they going to bench a local top 50 HS recruit so that a marginal 5th-year player can get all of this PT you're imagining?

It’s a terrible example because Fitz got hurt. If you think a player tearing their ACL doesn’t drastically change their career trajectory then I can’t help you.

I acknowledged Curry’s solid numbers as a freshman. Like I said, nothing that blows anyone out of the water, but solid production.

Stockman doesn’t have to leapfrog anyone. Reggie is gone. Curry isn’t a natural center, and is coming off a torn ACL. Oturu is a freshman coming off shoulder surgery, and may not even be 100% going into the season.

For starters I think it is a mistake to only play Curry at the 4 or 5. It is well known that Coffey wants to play some PG, and with our lack of depth at the position it would not surprise me at all to see that wish fulfilled. And when Coffey is playing PG (or even just when he needs a sub at the 3), I’d rather have Curry filling in for him than Hurt. Curry should be used as a Swiss Army knife at the 3/4/5. He’s really a 4, but is plenty capable of playing the 3 or 5.

So, maybe to help you better understand my position — I don’t think there is anything the precludes Matz, Murph, and Fitz from all playing at the same time. In fact, I think that could be our most effective lineup against some opponents.

Breakdowns:
Murph - 28 min (all at the 4)
Curry - 27 min (12 @ 4, 10 @ 3, 5 @ 5)
Matz - 23 min (all @ 5)
Oturu - 12 min (all @ 5)
Omersa - used as a sub if any of these guys can’t play their regular minutes due to injury or foul trouble, or in mop-up duty

 

[dpodoll68]

It’s a terrible example because Fitz got hurt. If you think a player tearing their ACL doesn’t drastically change their career trajectory then I can’t help you.

I acknowledged Curry’s solid numbers as a freshman. Like I said, nothing that blows anyone out of the water, but solid production.

Stockman doesn’t have to leapfrog anyone. Reggie is gone. Curry isn’t a natural center, and is coming off a torn ACL. Oturu is a freshman coming off shoulder surgery, and may not even be 100% going into the season.

For starters I think it is a mistake to only play Curry at the 4 or 5. It is well known that Coffey wants to play some PG, and with our lack of depth at the position it would not surprise me at all to see that wish fulfilled. And when Coffey is playing PG (or even just when he needs a sub at the 3), I’d rather have Curry filling in for him than Hurt. Curry should be used as a Swiss Army knife at the 3/4/5. He’s really a 4, but is plenty capable of playing the 3 or 5.

So, maybe to help you better understand my position — I don’t think there is anything the precludes Matz, Murph, and Fitz from all playing at the same time. In fact, I think that could be our most effective lineup against some opponents.

Breakdowns:
Murph - 28 min (all at the 4)
Curry - 27 min (12 @ 4, 10 @ 3, 5 @ 5)
Matz - 23 min (all @ 5)
Oturu - 12 min (all @ 5)
Omersa - used as a sub if any of these guys can’t play their regular minutes due to injury or foul trouble, or in mop-up duty

Agree to disagree I guess. We will see how it plays out. Stockman might play more than 8 mpg, but I would be unbelievably shocked (and believe that we're in deep, deep trouble) if he's playing anything approaching 23 mpg.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Stockman might play more than 8 mpg, but I would be unbelievably shocked (and believe that we're in deep, deep trouble) if he's playing anything approaching 23 mpg.

I'm definitely in "wait and see" mode with Stockman (Hurt, too). He barely got off the bench for 3 years at Louisville. The only guys I have confidence will be Big 10 quality rotation players next season are Murph, Coffey, McBrayer, Jelly, Curry, and Oturu (and Oturu is a true freshman and currently injured). I have minimal expectations for Stockman & Hurt, so if Gophers get something significant from either I'll chalk it up as a pleasant surprise.

 

[Winona Gopher]

I'm definitely in "wait and see" mode with Stockman (Hurt, too). He barely got off the bench for 3 years at Louisville. The only guys I have confidence will be Big 10 quality rotation players next season are Murph, Coffey, McBrayer, Jelly, Curry, and Oturu (and Oturu is a true freshman and currently injured). I have minimal expectations for Stockman & Hurt, so if Gophers get something significant from either I'll chalk it up as a pleasant surprise.

I think Hurt could at least be serviceable at the 3 position as long as he's the 5th option out of 5 on the court and as long as he's willing to pull the trigger on shooting the 3. He shot 43% on the year, but it was a limited sample size.

I am not a fan of putting Curry at the 3. I think he would get blown by too frequently unless you're playing a zone. Even then, I am concerned about spacing on offense as you're having 3 big guys on the court who aren't good at shooting the 3. I know Curry and Murphy can make them, but teams will live with them shooting 3s. It would clog the lane for guys who like to drive like Dupree, Amir and Isaiah.

 

[Angrygopher1]

I think Hurt could at least be serviceable at the 3 position as long as he's the 5th option out of 5 on the court and as long as he's willing to pull the trigger on shooting the 3. He shot 43% on the year, but it was a limited sample size.

I am not a fan of putting Curry at the 3. I think he would get blown by too frequently unless you're playing a zone. Even then, I am concerned about spacing on offense as you're having 3 big guys on the court who aren't good at shooting the 3. I know Curry and Murphy can make them, but teams will live with them shooting 3s. It would clog the lane for guys who like to drive like Dupree, Amir and Isaiah.

I talked to Mike not to long ago and he said he is getting more confident and hopes to have a better season this year. I told him he needs to get more aggressive and shoot more because he is a good shooter. He said he plans to do just that.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Hey, I hope Curry has a big year. My memory may be faulty, but I remember him as a guy who showed some real flashes of talent, but I didn't sit there thinking "this guy is a future star."

the nature of a fan is that we want to see the best in players, but sometime that leads us to form unrealistic expectations. IF Curry is healthy, I see him as a solid rotation player. and you need solid rotation players. I just don't see him as an all-conference type of player, unless he makes a big jump in his level of play - while coming back from an ACL. That's asking a lot.

if Curry gives the Gophers 20-25 minutes a game, 8-10 ppg and 5-7 rpg, I would consider that a solid season for a guy coming off an ACL.

As far as position, I just don't see Curry as a SF. Most of his offense was in-close, with a few mid-range jump shots. I checked - he was 5 of 29 on 3pters. Ahmad Gilbert made more 3's than Curry. Curry is a PF and C.

 

[bizzle22]

Agree to disagree I guess. We will see how it plays out. Stockman might play more than 8 mpg, but I would be unbelievably shocked (and believe that we're in deep, deep trouble) if he's playing anything approaching 23 mpg.

Fair enough. Disagreement is fine. Guess I’d add two things to my point before moving on:
1. Maybe it’s 20 mpg for Stockman and 15 for Oturu. Point is that I believe Stockman will have a significant role on this team. My logic for why has already been discussed so I won’t bore you with that again.

2. I take back what I said about Stockman starting. Pitino has said many times (and as coach of another sport I agree with him 100%) that starting doesn’t matter. Total minutes played and being on the court at the end of a close game matter a heck of a lot more than being on the court at tip-off.

 

[dpodoll68]

You think Pitino gave Stockman a scholarship for 2 years with the plan of him having to sit out the first one and play 8mpg in the second one? If that’s the case his roster management is much worse than I thought.

Do you think Pitino's roster management is much worse than you thought?

 

[bizzle22]

Do you think Pitino's roster management is much worse than you thought?

We'll find out. Our options at the 5 are now a sophomore coming off a torn ACL and a freshman coming off shoulder surgery. Crandall had better be good and our big guys better stay healthy, or this will look really foolish.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Do you think Pitino's roster management is much worse than you thought?

It's possible Stockman would have been a solid option for us, and Crandall is just too good to pass up. We don't know yet. If Matz has a good year for another team and Crandall has an even better one for us, then there will be no reason to question the decision to take Matz or the decision to let him go in favor of Crandall. We will have to wait and see.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Will take a Crandall for Stockman switch in a heartbeat. Let’s hope this all but means Crandall is here.

Stockman was a huge reach from the get-go, not to mention a favor from son to father so Dad could land Brian Bowen when Louisville didn’t have a scholarship available. I’ll take proven talent over unproven any day of the week. Crandall is a proven talent. If it means having one less big man, so be it. I’ll take the added versatility Crandall would bring to the roster.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Will take a Crandall for Stockman switch in a heartbeat. Let’s hope this all but means Crandall is here.

Stockman was a huge reach from the get-go, not to mention a favor from son to father so Dad could land Brian Bowen when Louisville didn’t have a scholarship available. I’ll take proven talent over unproven any day of the week. Crandall is a proven talent. If it means having one less big man, so be it. I’ll take the added versatility Crandall would bring to the roster.

I've asked you and others this multiple times but have never gotten a response. How was Richard taking Stockman a favor to Rick? Are you implying the only way Rick could get rid of Stockman was if Richard took him? He couldn't have steered him somewhere else or just let him go and figure it out on his own? Is the next team Stockman plays for doing Richard a favor? I honestly don't get it.

 

[Ewert86PC]

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts. None of this matters until we see them play.

The churning of talent in this program is alarming.

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[Frank Grimey Grimes]

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts. None of this matters until we see them play.

The churning of talent in this program is alarming.

Sent from my SM-N950U using

Lol not even a good attempt at trolling. I expect better from you.

 

[Ewert86PC]

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts. None of this matters until we see them play.

The churning of talent in this program is alarming.

Sent from my SM-N950U using

Lol not even a good attempt at trolling. I expect better from you.

At least I can quote posts. It's not much, but one must focus on one's strengths.

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[Frank Grimey Grimes]

At least I can quote posts. It's not much, but one must focus on one's strengths.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Yeah id focus on website technicalities too if my sports takes were as bad as yours.