Fran Fraschilla says "if's" happen next year for U, we could be middle of pack in BT

[BleedGopher]

Fran Fraschilla says "if's" happen next year for U, we could be middle of pack in BT

per Shama:

ESPN college basketball authority Fran Fraschilla has a prediction about the Gophers next season: “I thought Jordan Murphy was on his way to All-American status this past season. If Amir Coffey takes the next logical step up, (if) Eric Curry comes back healthy and (Dupree) McBrayer can play up to his potential, I think they will be a middle of the pack Big Ten team with a chance to definitely play in the postseason,” Fraschilla told Sports Headliners.

Those four players figure to be starters, along with Isaiah Washington. Coffey and McBrayer were dealing with injuries of varying severity last winter, while Curry missed 2017-18 after preseason knee surgery.

An optimistic note about Minnesota is Big Ten leaders Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue and Ohio State could all take a step back after losing personnel. “I don’t expect any of the top four teams to be as good as they were this past season but they still all have great tradition,” Fraschilla said.

When Fraschilla saw the Gophers play last fall, before the Reggie Lynch suspension and Coffey’s shoulder injury, he thought the Gophers were a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 team for the 2018 NCAA Tournament.

http://shamasportsheadliners.com/

Go Gophers!!

 

[builtbadgers]

I would be very disappointed if the Gophs were between 6-9th which is what he thinks. That would be pathetic in a weak Big 10. I AM THINKING TOP 3.

 

[Keyser Söze]

If everyone returns strong from injury, we stay healthy, and we get an adequate backup point guard for next season, we should be one of the top teams in the Big Ten and a surefire tournament team.

 

[bga1]

I would be very disappointed if the Gophs were between 6-9th which is what he thinks. That would be pathetic in a weak Big 10. I AM THINKING TOP 3.

Nice post setting up the coach to fail. You must think that he has recruited top notch talent! And he does have some good talent. Top 3 would be a COY performance for Pitino (again). I think it is a possible, but I think that finishing 3rd to 6th is more reasonable and very doable if the roster stays reasonably healthy.

 

[EG#9]

It would be nice if "ifs" literally ever worked out for this program. I find it comical that after the 2016-2017 season, a couple long time fans were talking about how fortunate the Gophers were with injuries. We lost Davonte Fitzgerald for the year before the season even started, and then lost our 6th man in the Big Ten Tournament that cost us not only a chance to win the Big Ten Tournament, but was also a huge reason why we were the highest seeded team to lose in round 1 (2) in the NCAA's.

I saw where Oturu is likely to be out for 4-5 months following his surgery, so things are already not great. I think an under reported story is what the hell is going on with Dupree McBrayer? The stress reaction that reportedly kept him out all of last Summer then came back (or never healed) during the season and he was wearing a boot and not practicing for much of the season. The last I heard there was no surgery scheduled and that rest was the prescription to start. We need him healthy and in a position to improve on his Sophomore season, but those are big "ifs" right now. Then you have Amir Coffey who unfortunately won't be able to work much on his game as he gets over his own shoulder surgery. Finally you have Eric Curry returning from a major knee injury which is yet another health question mark that needs to be answered in a positive way for this team to be successful.

I think Washington/McBrayer/Coffey/Muprhy/Curry with Oturu rotating in the front court is a very nice top 6. Can we find a good guard (missing out on McGowens and seemingly out of the Ramey sweepstakes too) to add to this group? It seems unlikely now and we still have a massive hole behind Coffey at the 3. As of now, we really need Gabe to come in and have a solid season shooting the ball as a freshman to compete for an NCAA berth and that's with everyone listed above being healthy and effective.

 

[RickDornsby]

I have a different take that it’s all about Oturu or Curry. The Gophs were not great with Reggie off the court even in ‘16-‘17. We need a rim protector, as the rest of the team’s defense is decent or not great. Shooting will be mediocre again. Unless Amir makes a huge, huge step, we need another force under the basket.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

As I sit here today, I don't have a clue what the Gophers are going to do next season.

the whole season hinges on a lot of variables and unanswered questions - about the health of key players - about the ability of transfers and true Freshmen to become contributors - and yes, questions about how the Coaching Staff handles the players and makes adjustments.

depending on how those questions are answered, I could envision a scenario where the Gophers are a top-6 team in the Conference, and get the NCAA berth. But, I could also envision a scenario where the Gophers are playing on the 1st day of the B1G Tournament again and miss out on post-season play.

If I had to guess right now, I would split the difference - put them about 8th in the B1G and an NIT team. Could be better. Could be worse. We won't know until they play the games.

 

[gopherguy15]

(Other than staying injury free) I think a good season vs mediocre season could lie with Hurt. Why? If he has to play anything more than 5-6 minutes per game, that's a bad sign. I know that sounds harsh, but Hurt has shown over his first two years that he has zero interest in offense. He has a consistent "hot-potato" mindset. He simply can't get the ball out of his hands fast enough. Teams started to play off him because he provided almost no threat to score. On top of that, he's a below average defender. If we are able to get a couple of solid guards with these last two spots, I would like to see Pitino play small-ball when Coffee needs a rest. Try Dupree or Gabe at the 3 spot. Or go big. I don't care. Either way, the team will be better if Hurt doesn't have to play.

 

[bizzle22]

It would be nice if "ifs" literally ever worked out for this program. I find it comical that after the 2016-2017 season, a couple long time fans were talking about how fortunate the Gophers were with injuries. We lost Davonte Fitzgerald for the year before the season even started, and then lost our 6th man in the Big Ten Tournament that cost us not only a chance to win the Big Ten Tournament, but was also a huge reason why we were the highest seeded team to lose in round 1 (2) in the NCAA's.

I saw where Oturu is likely to be out for 4-5 months following his surgery, so things are already not great. I think an under reported story is what the hell is going on with Dupree McBrayer? The stress reaction that reportedly kept him out all of last Summer then came back (or never healed) during the season and he was wearing a boot and not practicing for much of the season. The last I heard there was no surgery scheduled and that rest was the prescription to start. We need him healthy and in a position to improve on his Sophomore season, but those are big "ifs" right now. Then you have Amir Coffey who unfortunately won't be able to work much on his game as he gets over his own shoulder surgery. Finally you have Eric Curry returning from a major knee injury which is yet another health question mark that needs to be answered in a positive way for this team to be successful.

I think Washington/McBrayer/Coffey/Muprhy/Curry with Oturu rotating in the front court is a very nice top 6. Can we find a good guard (missing out on McGowens and seemingly out of the Ramey sweepstakes too) to add to this group? It seems unlikely now and we still have a massive hole behind Coffey at the 3. As of now, we really need Gabe to come in and have a solid season shooting the ball as a freshman to compete for an NCAA berth and that's with everyone listed above being healthy and effective.

You don't think we were fortunate with injuries in 2016-17? What? Any team that makes it through the entire season with no injuries to their starting 5 is pretty darn fortunate.

 

[builtbadgers]

Nice post setting up the coach to fail. You must think that he has recruited top notch talent! And he does have some good talent. Top 3 would be a COY performance for Pitino (again). I think it is a possible, but I think that finishing 3rd to 6th is more reasonable and very doable if the roster stays reasonably healthy.

I set up nothing. Coach set this team up to succeed. Success to me is top 3 with this roster in a very weak Big 10.

 

[Cayman]

You don't think we were fortunate with injuries in 2016-17? What? Any team that makes it through the entire season with no injuries to their starting 5 is pretty darn fortunate.

How many Big Ten teams had a starter get hurt this year? I think Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maryland, Indiana, and Northwestern did.

I don’t think any of the top 5 Big Ten teams had a starter get injured, but someone can correct me if I’m wrong. Kam Williams was suspended for 3 games at Ohio State. Nebraska’s top 8 players missed a grand total of 6 games all season. Mike Watkins of Penn State missed the Big Ten tournament, and to Penn State’s credit, they won the NIT without him, but I think he was there to get them to 9-9 in conference, a top half finish this year. Nicholas Baer missed 6 games for Iowa, their other top 7 players missed a total of 1 game. Illinois had a couple guys miss 3 or 4 games.

Indiana finished tied for 6th at 9-9 and were missing De’Ron Davis for most of conference play. I think that’s the best finish this year for a Big Ten team that missed a starter for more than like 4 games.

It’s not like losing a regular rotation player for half a season or more is something that happens to most teams every year. And sometimes having a great season means being able to consistently have your best players playing big minutes every game, which seems like it doesn’t work out for us often.

 

[bizzle22]

How many Big Ten teams had a starter get hurt this year? I think Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maryland, Indiana, and Northwestern did.

I don’t think any of the top 5 Big Ten teams had a starter get injured, but someone can correct me if I’m wrong. Kam Williams was suspended for 3 games at Ohio State. Nebraska’s top 8 players missed a grand total of 6 games all season. Mike Watkins of Penn State missed the Big Ten tournament, and to Penn State’s credit, they won the NIT without him, but I think he was there to get them to 9-9 in conference, a top half finish this year. Nicholas Baer missed 6 games for Iowa, their other top 7 players missed a total of 1 game. Illinois had a couple guys miss 3 or 4 games.

Indiana finished tied for 6th at 9-9 and were missing De’Ron Davis for most of conference play. I think that’s the best finish this year for a Big Ten team that missed a starter for more than like 4 games.

It’s not like losing a regular rotation player for half a season or more is something that happens to most teams every year. And sometimes having a great season means being able to consistently have your best players playing big minutes every game, which seems like it doesn’t work out for us often.

How many of those teams finished ahead of us?

In 2016-17 we had our top 7 players miss a grand total of 4 games, and 0 of those games were during conference play. How many teams go through 18 conference games with the same top 7?

 

[bga1]

I set up nothing. Coach set this team up to succeed. Success to me is top 3 with this roster in a very weak Big 10.

How on earth could a bottom tier coach do that here at Minnesota??? I think the roster is top 6 in the Big Ten if McBrayer and Coffey are fully recovered and I think the coach will perform at that level or better if that's the case.

 

[Gold Vision]

I agree with Fran. The roster as it sits today has some decent talent, but it’s really quite thin and flawed. Best case scenario, this is a .500 or slightly above B1G type team.

The number one issue I see is we don’t have a single player that has the skill set coming back to replace Nate Mason. A starting backcourt of Isaiah Washington and Dupree McBrayer has to be near the very bottom of the B1G. Neither can score with any consistency and McBrayer is still incredibly injury prone. There is zero depth behind those two outside of a lightly recruited freshman!

Coffey is a nice glue player, but really has only stood out offensively in games where he can get out and run in transition. He’ll disappear in other games when teams pack it in on us and take away the lane. A backcourt of McBrayer Washington and Coffey will struggle from beyond the arc.

Jordan Murphy is a stud, but we saw what happens when he doesn’t have a scoring threat in the post to compliment him.

The center position is a complete unknown. It will be at least nice to have some depth on paper.

 

[Block M]

I agree with Fran. The roster as it sits today has some decent talent, but it’s really quite thin and flawed. Best case scenario, this is a .500 or slightly above B1G type team.

The number one issue I see is we don’t have a single player that has the skill set coming back to replace Nate Mason. A starting backcourt of Isaiah Washington and Dupree McBrayer has to be near the very bottom of the B1G. Neither can score with any consistency and McBrayer is still incredibly injury prone. There is zero depth behind those two outside of a lightly recruited freshman!

Coffey is a nice glue player, but really has only stood out offensively in games where he can get out and run in transition. He’ll disappear in other games when teams pack it in on us and take away the lane. A backcourt of McBrayer Washington and Coffey will struggle from beyond the arc.

Jordan Murphy is a stud, but we saw what happens when he doesn’t have a scoring threat in the post to compliment him.

The center position is a complete unknown. It will be at least nice to have some depth on paper.

Disagree with most of your points.

1. Washington and McBrayere are not a bottom of the B10 guard combo. IW can and will score with consistency has he displayed in the 2nd half of the B10 season.

2. Coffey a "glue" player? That's way off the mark. He has the best all-around game on the team. He also shoots pretty well from 3 and can make plays for his team mates.

3. Center position a "complete unknown?". I think Oturu (if healthy) is quantifiable talent and Curry has played the position before. Stockman is an unknown, I will give you that.

 

[bizzle22]

Disagree with most of your points.

1. Washington and McBrayere are not a bottom of the B10 guard combo. IW can and will score with consistency has he displayed in the 2nd half of the B10 season.

2. Coffey a "glue" player? That's way off the mark. He has the best all-around game on the team. He also shoots pretty well from 3 and can make plays for his team mates.

3. Center position a "complete unknown?". I think Oturu (if healthy) is quantifiable talent and Curry has played the position before. Stockman is an unknown, I will give you that.

1. You may no want to believe it, but those 2 are basically all we have right now and most every other program has better.
2. Yes, Coffey's more than a glue guy. Who is next in line?
3. You lost me when you said a true freshman is more of a known than a redshirt senior.

 

[builtbadgers]

How on earth could a bottom tier coach do that here at Minnesota??? I think the roster is top 6 in the Big Ten if McBrayer and Coffey are fully recovered and I think the coach will perform at that level or better if that's the case.

Just my opinion but i think the roster is 3rd or 4th with everyone healthy. I look at what others lost and factor in what the Gophers gain in new faces so far and then a big jump up in IW. To me Coffey and Murphy are both top 12 players in the conference. Curry back is a damn big deal. I am betting on a way better defense with Jeter on staff and better efficiency. That turns several loses into hard fought wins. Could i be wrong. of course ! What i will not sign up for is even one more year of being a fan that accepts .500 as a good year in the conference. Year 6, that is flat out not acceptable. The people that support the program must expect top level success.

 

[alchemy2u]

100% dancing:




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[scools12]

This is a bottom half of the B1G roster and finishing higher than 8th in the conference next season would be a huge surprise.


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[ltf]

Spring recruiting is looking hopeful. Now, so much of next year just comes down to Isaiah Washington. I have a high opinion of Pitino's player development abilities so feel good about that. Also not worried about Curry or Coffey, but wonder about McBrayer. Maybe he ends up redshirting next season just to heal up? With improved IW, should be able to challenge for double bye without a doubt.

 

[Block M]

1. You may no want to believe it, but those 2 are basically all we have right now and most every other program has better.
2. Yes, Coffey's more than a glue guy. Who is next in line?
3. You lost me when you said a true freshman is more of a known than a redshirt senior.

A top 50 HS player and top 4 center who has played on the national AAU circuit is probably a more sure thing than a 5th year guy from Europe who has basically never played. I think its safe to say we will get some rim protection rebounding and opportunistic scoring from the center position next season if the principals are healthy.

I don't like our guard depth but I like the guys we have.

 

[jovs]

A top 50 HS player and top 4 center who has played on the national AAU circuit is probably a more sure thing than a 5th year guy from Europe who has basically never played. I think its safe to say we will get some rim protection rebounding and opportunistic scoring from the center position next season if the principals are healthy.

I don't like our guard depth but I like the guys we have.

I think you are underestimating Stockman, a legit 7 footer that moves decently, pretty good hands, he will contribute next year

 

[ltf]

I think you are underestimating Stockman, a legit 7 footer that moves decently, pretty good hands, he will contribute next year

Also nice shooting touch.

 

[dpodoll68]

A top 50 HS player and top 4 center who has played on the national AAU circuit is probably a more sure thing than a 5th year guy from Europe who has basically never played. I think its safe to say we will get some rim protection rebounding and opportunistic scoring from the center position next season if the principals are healthy.

I don't like our guard depth but I like the guys we have.

Stockman has played in 45 NCAA games over 3 seasons. The idea that a HS senior who has never set foot on a college court is more of a known commodity is patently absurd. Where do you get the "basically never played" from? Oturu has literally never played at the college level, ever.

 

[fryguy22]

Stockman has played in 45 NCAA games over 3 seasons. The idea that a HS senior who has never set foot on a college court is more of a known commodity is patently absurd. Where do you get the "basically never played" from? Oturu has literally never played at the college level, ever.

I sort of agree with both sides of this discussion. That is to say, I agree that Stockman is more of a known commodity at the college level (and I'm hopeful he will be able to contribute). At the same time I think it's off base for some (not you) to say or imply that Oturu can't really be counted on to contribute. Of players with similar composite 247 rankings and positions / game, the best comps I've found for the last couple years are Gafford (who some may remember from us getting pasted at Arkansas last year) and Azubuike. Profiles linked below. Note that this is based on a cursory look at the 247 rankings and grabbing a player in the similar range, so I'm happy to have others post "better" comps to Oturu, but those players are encouraging to me with respect to Daniel's potential first year impact.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4278049/daniel-gafford

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4066299/udoka-azubuike

 

[Otis]

I've never seen such wild differences in assessment of our team! Some of you are saying "Bottom of the conference" and others "Top 3". Could we settle this a different way?

1. PG - IW - is he below or above average in the B1G for his position? I'd go with Average.

2. SG - McBrayer - A healthy McBrayer is ABOVE average for a B1G SG mostly due to his defense.

3. SF - Coffey - A healthy Coffey is ABOVE average. Don't even bother arguing this.

4. PF - Murphy - B1G POY preseason candidate without a doubt. May be best returning PF in the conference especially if Ward goes pro.

5. C - Oturu - Is there even a chance a Top 50 recruit would be considered below average in the B1G at center? I'm going Average at WORST.

6. Bench - This is where things get dicey!

PG - currently no bench player who has the handles to hold the point. Out of position player would have to man-up. Grad transfer could make all the difference here.

SG - Hurt and Kalescheur, Relying on a yet to break out Junior and an in-coming freshman is pretty weak. Need that guy from Milwaukee here.

SF - Hurt and Kaleschuer again, Redundancy doesn't help here. Desperately need outside shooting.

PF - Best Position hands down! Curry is more than capable and Omersa has the athletic ability to spell Murphy for a few minutes if he has to.

C - Stockman and Curry, This should be an above average depth position. With a legitimate 7 footer and an athletic big.

Coach - Pitino - Is he above average? Below? Let's go with Below just to keep this less homer scored.

So, we have 3 out of 5 above average starters to go with 2 average B1G players being coached by a below to average coach who has a great bench underneath but is incredibly thin and questionable in the backcourt. Injury free, on paper this is a top half of the conference team. Throw in an injury and they fall to average. Throw in a well placed injury, (say IW or Coffey) and things are going to get ugly real fast.

Hopefully we will pull a couple players who can play right away and fill these glaring bench holes!

 

[bga1]

Our season really seems to hinge on three things:

1. How good is Oturo?
2. Do we stay healthy?
3. Can IW take over lead the team at the point at an average or better level.

I think that the answer to 1 and 3 are positive. #2 is the luck of the draw but we are due for a break after last year.

My feeling is that Oturo can come in and compete just like Coffey, Murphy and Mason have done under Pitino and just like most top 50 players do. I also expect IW to be excellent next year. He showed a lot of improvement late in the year and I say he makes a big jump this year. This year he is going to be dropping dimes to Oturo and Curry instead of Gaston and Bakary.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Oturu

Is his last name.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

The non-conference schedule next year is going to be very interesting.

As noted, there are a lot of questions about this squad - players coming back from injuries, transfers, true freshmen trying to blend into a team.

So, the non-conf games will be essential for Pitino and (let's not forget) a largely new coaching staff to work with the players, figure out which lineups work, and make a LOT of adjustments as needed. Hopefully, a lot of the questions will be answered (positively- cross your fingers) by the time the B1G season gets in high gear.

The flip side is that a lot of the non-conference games have not been televised in the past, so we might not be able to watch this team develop. (unless you want to pay for on-line broadcasts and such.)

 

[bizzle22]

I sort of agree with both sides of this discussion. That is to say, I agree that Stockman is more of a known commodity at the college level (and I'm hopeful he will be able to contribute). At the same time I think it's off base for some (not you) to say or imply that Oturu can't really be counted on to contribute. Of players with similar composite 247 rankings and positions / game, the best comps I've found for the last couple years are Gafford (who some may remember from us getting pasted at Arkansas last year) and Azubuike. Profiles linked below. Note that this is based on a cursory look at the 247 rankings and grabbing a player in the similar range, so I'm happy to have others post "better" comps to Oturu, but those players are encouraging to me with respect to Daniel's potential first year impact.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4278049/daniel-gafford

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4066299/udoka-azubuike

Oturu is currently ranked #49 overall and the #5 center in the 247 composite.

Here are last year's #3, #4, and #5 ranked centers along with their stats as freshmen...

Malik Williams (#27 overall, #3 C, Louisville) -- 10.6mpg, 41.6%FG, 3.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg
Ira Lee (#60 overall, #4 C, Arizona) -- 10.2mpg, 46.2%FG, 2.4ppg, 2.3rpg
Ike Obiagu (#63 overall, #5 C, Florida State) -- 10.7mpg, 57.9%FG, 2.3ppg, 2.6rpg

Gafford isn't a good comp at all. He doesn't play center.

Azubuike is a decent comp, but again I would refer to his freshman year stats -- 12.9mpg, 62.9%FG, 5.0ppg, 4.4rpg. He didn't really come out of his shell until his sophomore year. Big guys take a little longer to adjust.

I think Oturu will eventually be a good player for us, I just don't think it will be next year.