The 36 At-Larges (final projection)

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SelectionSunday

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I thought this was a really difficult year deciphering the final 6 or 7 at-larges. There were an unusual number of teams I considered with RPIs of 60 or higher, which usually is the drop dead "Dead Zone" for at-large hopefuls. I actually took three with RPIs, in the 60s, Virginia Tech (62), NC State (64), and Arizona State (66), my "last team in". (please see contingency below regarding ASU and the impact of A-10 title game on Sunday)

Quite frankly, if I get 34 of the 36 at-larges this year I'll consider it a success. I took a few calculated gambles, most notably leaving Creighton out of the Field of 68 (even though their AD is the Selection Committee chairman), while taking both Middle Tennessee and ASU. Middle Tennessee's resume isn't great (only 1 win over a team I projected into the field), but I think the Blue Raiders will be rewarded for playing a good non-conference schedule and running roughshod over a decent Conference USA, with the exception of tournament champion Marshall, which beat them twice. Regarding ASU, yes they finished the season poorly, but I think the Sun Devils' non-conference wins over Kansas, Xavier, and Kansas State (none on their home court) will sneak them into the field.

Bye for now.

RPI is noted in parentheses

The 36 At-Larges
American (2): Cincinnati (7)/Houston (17) loser in Sunday championship game, Wichita State (12)

ACC (7): North Carolina (4), Duke (6), Clemson (10), Miami (28), Syracuse (45), Virginia Tech (62), NC State (64)

Atlantic 10 (1): Saint Bonaventure (24)

Big East (4): Xavier (3), Seton Hall (31), Providence (32), Butler (41)

B1G (3): Purdue (9), Michigan State (16), Ohio State (20)

Big XII (6): Texas Tech (23), TCU (25), West Virginia (27), Oklahoma (48), Texas (50), Kansas State (52)

Conference USA (1): Middle Tennessee (33)

Mountain West (1): Nevada

Pac 12 (3): USC (34), UCLA (36), ***Arizona State (66)

SEC (7): Tennessee (8)/Kentucky (18) loser in Sunday championship game, Auburn (15), Texas A&M (29), Arkansas (30), Alabama (42), Missouri (44), Florida (46)

WCC (1): Saint Mary's (40)

*** Please note contingency. If Davidson beats Rhode Island in the A-10 title game Sunday, Rhode Island becomes an at-large and replaces Arizona State, my "last team in".


Last 4 In: Middle Tennessee (33), Syracuse (45), Texas (50), Arizona State (66)

First 4 Out: Boise State (39), Creighton (43), Florida State (54), Washington (71)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (6): Cincinnati/Houston loser, Middle Tennessee, Nevada, Saint Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, Wichita State

Others Considered: Louisville (38), Nebraska (55), Marquette (57), Baylor (68), Notre Dame (70), Oregon (72), Penn State (78), Oklahoma State (90)
 

Good luck SS! Any reasoning to taking Az St over say Creighton or Boise?
 

Seems tougher this year than most years. I'd have Oklahoma State in over St. Marys and Creighton in over Syracuse. Really interested to see what the committee will do with that group of Big 12 teams Baylor, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State seem pretty tied together. Actually wouldn't be surprised if they were all out.
 

Gopherholefan said:
Good luck SS! Any reasoning to taking Az St over say Creighton or Boise?
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Thanks.

Not taking Creighton easily my biggest gamble. In the end I took ASU because I couldn't ignore their 3 big non-conference wins over Kansas, Xavier, and K-State. Winning in Lawrence almost feels like it counts double. Also beat USC and UCLA.

Creighton? I just don't like their resume other than beating Villanova. 2-9 vs. Quadrant 1, and I think, arguably, they have the weakest resume of the 4 Big East teams that were on the bubble going into the conference tournament. 2-5 vs. Butler, Marquette, and Providence.

Boise State, it was hard to justify taking them without at least a win overv regular season champion Nevada. Only have 2 wins vs. the field, Loyola and San Diego State.
 



SelectionSunday said:
I thought this was a really difficult year deciphering the final 6 or 7 at-larges. There were an unusual number of teams I considered with RPIs of 60 or higher, which usually is the drop dead "Dead Zone" for at-large hopefuls. I actually took three with RPIs, in the 60s, Virginia Tech (62), NC State (64), and Arizona State (66), my "last team in". (please see contingency below regarding ASU and the impact of A-10 title game on Sunday)

Quite frankly, if I get 34 of the 36 at-larges this year I'll consider it a success. I took a few calculated gambles, most notably leaving Creighton out of the Field of 68 (even though their AD is the Selection Committee chairman), while taking both Middle Tennessee and ASU. Middle Tennessee's resume isn't great (only 1 win over a team I projected into the field), but I think the Blue Raiders will be rewarded for playing a good non-conference schedule and running roughshod over a decent Conference USA, with the exception of tournament champion Marshall, which beat them twice. Regarding ASU, yes they finished the season poorly, but I think the Sun Devils' non-conference wins over Kansas, Xavier, and Kansas State (none on their home court) will sneak them into the field.

Bye for now.

RPI is noted in parentheses

The 36 At-Larges
American (2): Cincinnati (7)/Houston (17) loser in Sunday championship game, Wichita State (12)

ACC (7): North Carolina (4), Duke (6), Clemson (10), Miami (28), Syracuse (45), Virginia Tech (62), NC State (64)

Atlantic 10 (1): Saint Bonaventure (24)

Big East (4): Xavier (3), Seton Hall (31), Providence (32), Butler (41)

B1G (3): Purdue (9), Michigan State (16), Ohio State (20)

Big XII (6): Texas Tech (23), TCU (25), West Virginia (27), Oklahoma (48), Texas (50), Kansas State (52)

Conference USA (1): Middle Tennessee (33)

Mountain West (1): Nevada

Pac 12 (3): USC (34), UCLA (36), ***Arizona State (66)

SEC (7): Tennessee (8)/Kentucky (18) loser in Sunday championship game, Auburn (15), Texas A&M (29), Arkansas (30), Alabama (42), Missouri (44), Florida (46)

WCC (1): Saint Mary's (40)

*** Please note contingency. If Davidson beats Rhode Island in the A-10 title game Sunday, Rhode Island becomes an at-large and replaces Arizona State, my "last team in".


Last 4 In: Middle Tennessee (33), Syracuse (45), Texas (50), Arizona State (66)

First 4 Out: Boise State (39), Creighton (43), Florida State (54), Washington (71)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (6): Cincinnati/Houston loser, Middle Tennessee, Nevada, Saint Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, Wichita State

Others Considered: Louisville (38), Nebraska (55), Marquette (57), Baylor (68), Notre Dame (70), Oregon (72), Penn State (78), Oklahoma State (90)
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Great job as always SS. Seems like particularly tough year. How did you do vs Lunardi and Palm?
 

TNGophfan said:
Great job as always SS. Seems like particularly tough year. How did you do vs Lunardi and Palm?
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Palm and Lunardi kicked my butt this year. I missed 3. Had Middle Tennessee, Saint Mary's, and USC in, Arizona State, Creighton, and Florida State made it instead.

I haven't confirmed it yet, but I think Palm was perfect,and Lunardi missed 1 (had USC, did not have Syracuse). Palm has been the best of the 3 of us since 2010-11 when I started keeping track.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Palm and Lunardi kicked my butt this year. I missed 3. Had Middle Tennessee, Saint Mary's, and USC in, Arizona State, Creighton, and Florida State made it instead.

I haven't confirmed it yet, but I think Palm was perfect,and Lunardi missed 1 (had USC, did not have Syracuse). Palm has been the best of the 3 of us since 2010-11 when I started keeping track.
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Ok. Thanks. I'll never be convinced those 2 guys don't have someone on the committee feeding them info but, who knows. For what it's worth, I can't believe USC didn't get in and thought MTSU should have. And FSU as a 9 seed is hard to believe for me.
 

TNGophfan said:
Ok. Thanks. I'll never be convinced those 2 guys don't have someone on the committee feeding them info but, who knows. For what it's worth, I can't believe USC didn't get in and thought MTSU should have. And FSU as a 9 seed is hard to believe for me.
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SS does a great job, but it's not an inside job by Palm and Lunardi.
Lunardi seems to have to get his ESPN bias worked in, but Palm has always been solid in my opinion.

The http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ collaboration seems to get them pretty accurate.


MTSU's worse five losses were against RPI:
34
81
87
87
207


Top 15 wins were against:
39
39
48
78
132
141
155
155
172
172
186
189
192
192
207


Total is 2593.
That never gets you in.



USC had:

Worst five losses vs RPI:
66
71
86
112
226

Top 15 wins vs RPI:

33
35
59
59
72
72
72
82
82
86
127
131
132
137
137

That's a total of 1877.
That will almost always get you in.

Last year, last four teams in were scores of 2054, 2103, 2169 and 2443.
First teams out were around 2460 and 2500.
 



I also had USC, MTSU, and St. Mary's in my final projections. Missed on Arizona St, Syracuse, and Texas.

My last 4 in were Oklahoma, Florida St, Alabama, and Creighton. My first 4 out were Syracuse, Arizona St, Louisville, and Texas. I can understand leaving out St. Mary's with that SOS and only one real quality win. I don't get the USC and MTSU omissions. And I don't understand how Notre Dame was so close. The committee must have been taking the Bonzie injury into account.
 

Does Alabama have the worst winning percentage of an at-large ever? Certainly has to be the worst for a team ranked #9 or better, right?
 


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