I think it's possible that next year will be better - but it is also possible that it won't be better.
For all the talk of injuries, this is still a D1 basketball program in a major conference. The head coach is responsible for the team he puts out on the court. And - even with the limitations of the current group - I see a lot of mistakes and missed execution that has almost nothing to do with talent. defensive positioning - boxing out on rebounds - making good passes - good shot selection - running an offense that doesn't wind up with guys jacking up bad shots with :02 left on the shot clock. That is not because of injuries - it's because of execution. Which is on the players - but it's also on the coaching staff.
At the risk of sounding cynical - if Pitino is a good coach when he has a healthy, talented team, then anyone is a good coach in that situation. You learn more about a team by watching how they handle adversity. In the Pitino era, the Gophers have not done a good job of handling adversity. I don't think that's a coincidence.
The probability is (barring critical losses) that next year almost has to be better. Nevertheless, even if it is, that doesn't invalidate your other points.
Putting aside the issue of whether Pitino will or will not be here next year, the real question for discussion is how do each of us see the future of this program in Pitino's hands? A very optimistic view might be that he has a Scott Drew of Baylor type of career here (struggles in the early years followed by mostly good-to-very good seasons afterwards). Or, will he be like another son (Keno Davis) of an accomplished coach (Tom Davis) who has had a few good years in a generally unimpressive 10 year career?