Pioneer Press: Weak schedule has Gophers teetering on NCAA tournament bubble

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BleedGopher

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per Chad:

Five weeks ago, the Gophers men’s basketball team entered a much-hyped Nov. 29 home game against the Hurricanes with a 7-0 record and the No. 12 ranking in the country.

Darlings to a fan base that raised expectations after an NCAA tournament trip last season, the Gophers had created buzz of a deep March run.

Six weeks later — after losses to Miami, Arkansas and Nebraska — simply making the NCAA tournament is far from a foregone conclusion for Richard Pitino’s squad as it resumes Big Ten play against Illinois on Wednesday night at Williams Arena.

Their 12-3 record is overshadowed by a 207th-ranked nonconference strength of schedule and a 2-3 mark against teams with a top-100 ratings percentage index (RPI), one of the metrics the selection committee uses.

“At this moment, they’re the last team in the tournament,” said Joe Lunardi ESPN’s bracketology guru who projected 67 of the 68 teams in last season’s NCAA tournament.

But on the eve of the team’s third of 18 Big Ten games, Pitino insisted he wasn’t concerned about his team’s postseason prospects.

“There are 16 games to go,” Pitino said. “Not even a little bit (worried).”

https://www.twincities.com/2018/01/02/weak-schedule-has-gophers-teetering-on-ncaa-tournament-bubble/

Go Gophers!!
 

Lunardi accurately pegs Gophers state

This article is spot on, as are Lunardi's insights, though, I wouldn't have the Gophers as the "last team in" just yet. More like an 8-10 seed.

Gophers have 6 highly significant (HS) to significant (S) games remaining on their schedule. ... Purdue (HS), @ Maryland (S), vs. Ohio State (S), @ Michigan (S), Michigan State (HS), @ Purdue (HS). It would be highly advisable they win at least 3 of those games, most preferably 2 of the 3 vs. Michigan State/Purdue. While at the same time, not dropping (m)any games vs. the RPI bombs remaining on their schedule (currently have 7 games remaining vs. opponents with RPIs south of #100).
 

SelectionSunday said:
This article is spot on, as are Lunardi's insights, though, I wouldn't have the Gophers as the "last team in" just yet. More like an 8-10 seed.

Gophers have 6 highly significant (HS) to significant (S) games remaining on their schedule. ... Purdue (HS), @ Maryland (S), vs. Ohio State (S), @ Michigan (S), Michigan State (HS), @ Purdue (HS). It would be highly advisable they win at least 3 of those games, most preferably 2 of the 3 vs. Michigan State/Purdue. While at the same time, not dropping (m)any games vs. the RPI bombs remaining on their schedule (currently have 7 games remaining vs. opponents with RPIs south of #100).
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SS, how could the staff book this weak of a non-conference slate? Is there competition now to book the better RPI small conference teams?
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
SS, how could the staff book this weak of a non-conference slate? Is there competition now to book the better RPI small conference teams?
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Lunardi is correct that there's not much Pitino can do when the 2 home games for the Barclays Center Classic ended up being suck-bombs (#322 Alabama A&M, #170 (that won't last) Western Carolina), but nevertheless he knew that was the risk in playing in an event like that. And what made it even worse was we drew UMass instead of BYU. So out of a 4-game event, the Gophers got 1 quality opponent. That's a killer. It's an absolute must you get 2 decent opponents out of something like that. Thank God they beat Alabama.

The rest of the schedule is on him. They could have scheduled better (like last year when they successfully gamed the RPI by identifying some decent mid-majors), but for some reason this season chose not to. Chose to put all their eggs in one 4-opponent basket (Alabama, Arkansas, Miami, Providence). That's fine if you're a program like Duke, Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, or Michigan State, but in my book too risky for a program of Minnesota's ilk. Our history is we're much more likely to end up on the tournament bubble than safely in the tournament field, so why take the chance of getting caught with our pants down on Selection Sunday because of a weak non-conference schedule? Would much rather error the other way. ... have a schedule that will give the committee a reason to take you.

It sure wouldn't hurt Gophers if teams like Drake (off to a 2-0 start in MVC), ORU, Harvard, etc., can perform well in their conferences. Schedule needs every bit of help it can get.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Lunardi is correct that there's not much Pitino can do when the 2 home games for the Barclays Center Classic ended up being suck-bombs (#322 Alabama A&M, #170 (that won't last) Western Carolina), but nevertheless he knew that was the risk in playing in an event like that. And what made it even worse was we drew UMass instead of BYU. So out of a 4-game event, the Gophers got 1 quality opponent. That's a killer. It's an absolute must you get 2 decent opponents out of something like that. Thank God they beat Alabama.

The rest of the schedule is on him. They could have scheduled better (like last year when they successfully gamed the RPI by identifying some decent mid-majors), but for some reason this season chose not to. Chose to put all their eggs in one 4-opponent basket (Alabama, Arkansas, Miami, Providence). That's fine if you're a program like Duke, Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, or Michigan State, but in my book too risky for a program of Minnesota's ilk.
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Why don't teams schedule more power conference games?

When Lunardi is saying “Those games are anchors,” Lunardi said. “If you’re playing No. 321 Alabama A&M, you almost can’t play enough top-5s to compensate for that. The very bottoms hurt you more than the very tops help you. Because at the very bottom, they’re just so bad..."

It would seem to me that there should be a cutoff where the committee treats a 200 win the exact same as a 321 win.
 


JimmyJamesMD said:
It would seem to me that there should be a cutoff where the committee treats a 200 win the exact same as a 321 win.
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Here's a rough look at what the Gophers' resume/team page (used by the Selection Committee) looks like right now, courtesy of WarrenNolan.com. Note the "key" and "record vs. RPI groups". The 9 wins in Group 4 is a really ugly number. That's a lot of (home) games vs. teams the Gophers should wipe the floor with.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/schedule/Minnesota
 

Last team in does not mean they're a 16 seed. I think that distinction has to be made. They would be the last at large and still be seeded above a lot of auto bids from lesser conferences.

The team and Pitino can't blame anyone but themselves. They've failed. It's not some bad luck draw in a tournament. They've played terrible basketball for a month, and lost to teams they are better than.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Here's a rough look at what the Gophers' resume/team page (used by the Selection Committee) looks like right now, courtesy of WarrenNolan.com. Note the "key" and "record vs. RPI groups". The 9 wins in Group 4 is a really ugly number. That's a lot of (home) games vs. teams the Gophers should wipe the floor with.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/schedule/Minnesota
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Got it. So they do treat a win at home vs 161 as the same as 321.

Whats the best strategy for getting cupcakes with good RPI's. (By cupcakes, I mean non-power 5 teams)

Sounds like Lunardi consults for this
 

In most years a schedule such as the Gophers would be mitigated by a strong Big 10. Not the case this year. The 11-3 beatdown in the ACC challange, poor showings in exempt Tourneys, and a few ugly loses results few chances for big time conference wins.
 



Our depth issue is a major problem. It's not only the precarious position we are in games but our depth makes practice very problematic. You can't get guys hurt so you rest guys or they are already hurt. You can't provide any resistance to the first group because the second group is weak. etc etc You are left to practice 2 on 2 and hope nobody gets hurt...individually they improve but your offense has no flow. Etc It is a vicious circle.

We need some breaks to be there at the end.
 

60's Guy said:
Our depth issue is a major problem. It's not only the precarious position we are in games but our depth makes practice very problematic. You can't get guys hurt so you rest guys or they are already hurt. You can't provide any resistance to the first group because the second group is weak. etc etc You are left to practice 2 on 2 and hope nobody gets hurt...individually they improve but your offense has no flow. Etc It is a vicious circle.

We need some breaks to be there at the end.
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I agree, our depth is brutal. Only 5 deep on this squad. Yes, the 5 are very good, but it's unrealistic to think that there won't be foul trouble, and or injuries (as we're seeing now with Mason) throughout the season. Be nice if Hurt can improve, and by that I mean against BIG schools. Right now, I see us as an NIT team. You have to have depth, and we don't. The Curry injury really crushed us more than I thought it would.
 

Current Non Conf SOS of the B1G:

Ohio State - 59
Wisconsin - 72
Purdue - 84
Indiana - 114
Northwestern - 127
Illinois - 161
Michigan - 175
Minnesota - 216
Maryland - 224
Michigan State - 233
Nebraska - 234
Iowa - 241
Penn State - 252
Rutgers - 317

As a whole the B1G projects to have the 23rd best SOS among the 32 conferences. Not only is it gonna hurt the Gophers it's going to hurt the league. The league only projects to have FOUR teams finish with a top 50 RPI, and one of those teams(Maryland) is without arguably it's best player.

It's pretty pathetic as a league, and as a league, will pay for it come selection and/or seeding.
 

The issue with the article is that the season is only 50% over. There is no tournament bubble. It is like looking at a college football poll after week 7 or looking at the nfl standings after week 8
 



Schedule looks even worse now with Providence losing at home to Marquette and Miami losing at Ga. Tech.
 

Schedule looks bad now, but if the Gophers have a nice showing in the B1G this season they will definitely get in
 

Go 11-7 In the Big Ten and not one bit of this matters
 

I would guess that Pitino/Staff assumed Harvard would be a better win. They finished last year at 145 in the RPI and are currently at 195 this year. Not sure what the solution was for this year given they already had road games against Providence and Arkansas locked in to their schedule. If they were going to play another quality high major, they kind of needed it to be at home and I would be surprised if there were a lot of takers to come to Minnesota to play a top 20 team this year.
 


They should not have played in that dumpster fire of a tournament.
 



Heracles said:
Last team in does not mean they're a 16 seed. I think that distinction has to be made. They would be the last at large and still be seeded above a lot of auto bids from lesser conferences.

The team and Pitino can't blame anyone but themselves. They've failed. It's not some bad luck draw in a tournament. They've played terrible basketball for a month, and lost to teams they are better than.
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Failed what exactly? Last I checked a whole conference season to go and the B1G Tournament. Don't believe they give out NCAA Tourney bids in January.
 

Just win and you don't have to worry about strength of schedule in the preconference.
Indiana on Saturday...just win.
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
They should not have played in that dumpster fire of a tournament.
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Agreed. The Barclays Classic gave us three awful opponents and one team that looks like it's going to be on the bubble all season. Just awful...
 

WriterGoph said:
Go 11-7 In the Big Ten and not one bit of this matters
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This +1...If we win all the games we should at home and steal a couple on the road(Northwestern, Penn State, Iowa and win the neutral site against Ohio State) that would put us at 12 conference wins. Might not get a great seed...but neither did we last year. Really wish we would have gotten a 6 or 7 seed instead of MTSU.
 

Don't have worry about that now. Gopher curse has been invoked.
 

Remember when this was the topic du jour? Good times.
 

Some guy said:
The issue with the article is that the season is only 50% over. There is no tournament bubble. It is like looking at a college football poll after week 7 or looking at the nfl standings after week 8
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This. Honestly all of college hoops should wait another 3-4 weeks before paying attention to the bubble. Sample size still too small.
 

Some guy said:
The issue with the article is that the season is only 50% over. There is no tournament bubble. It is like looking at a college football poll after week 7 or looking at the nfl standings after week 8
Click to expand...

These were the days
 

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