What I learned tonight (but I already knew)

[Gophers7633]

A 22 win B1G team with an RPI in the 40's isn't on the bubble.

With how bad the league has been, I think that will be the case. If we go 21-10, and go 1-1 in the B1G tournament, I don't think we'll get in. It's just frustrating because our OOC is garbage outside of 4 games. At this point I'm not sure Providence has the makings of a tournament team either, they struggled at home with Belmont and Brown(of all teams).

 

[CentralGopher]

He has not taken a D1 program to even close to a good level. Conference winning % at Nebraska is very poor. He did do a wonderful job at SSU.

I think many would agree he did pretty well at his other stops before Nebraska as well. Has had his ups and downs at the current stop but a few more downs than ups unfortunately.


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[MNVCGUY]

With how bad the league has been, I think that will be the case. If we go 21-10, and go 1-1 in the B1G tournament, I don't think we'll get in. It's just frustrating because our OOC is garbage outside of 4 games. At this point I'm not sure Providence has the makings of a tournament team either, they struggled at home with Belmont and Brown(of all teams).

You really need to relax, it was one bad loss, let's see it become a trend before making it into more then what it actually was. This is a very good team that had a really bad night. Last year's team was 24-10 (11-7 conf) went 1-1 in the Big Ten Tournament and ended up as a #5 seed.

Current team is 8-2 with some quality non conf wins, 1 loss coming against a top 10 team (who we hung with in spite of being down one starter) and just one bad loss on the road in conference. The Arkansas game on Saturday is important but even if we end up losing that one the season is not lost at that point. This team is certainly not perfect, and Nebraska showed what you have to do to beat us, but this is still a really good team that is going to win a lot of games this season.

 

[Gophers7633]

You really need to relax, it was one bad loss, let's see it become a trend before making it into more then what it actually was. This is a very good team that had a really bad night. Last year's team was 24-10 (11-7 conf) went 1-1 in the Big Ten Tournament and ended up as a #5 seed.

Current team is 8-2 with some quality non conf wins, 1 loss coming against a top 10 team (who we hung with in spite of being down one starter) and just one bad loss on the road in conference. The Arkansas game on Saturday is important but even if we end up losing that one the season is not lost at that point. This team is certainly not perfect, and Nebraska showed what you have to do to beat us, but this is still a really good team that is going to win a lot of games this season.

I still think we are a good team, and that we'll make the tournament, but we better win at least 12 games in conference to feel comfortable, is all I'm saying.

Last year's team was 24-9(11-7) entering the tournament, but we had an SOS of 17, a Non Conf SOS of 28, and 8 top 50 RPI wins. I don't even think we'll play 8 top 50 RPI teams this season, and if we do, we certainly won't play 15 like last year, because the B1G has been awful OOC.

 

[gall0249]

Are you saying we won't play against 8 top-50 teams or that we won't have 8 games against a top-50 opponent? Because we will definitely have at least 8 games against a top-50 opponent.

 

[Gophers7633]

Are you saying we won't play against 8 top-50 teams or that we won't have 8 games against a top-50 opponent? Because we will definitely have at least 8 games against a top-50 opponent.

Michigan State, Purdue and Maryland are the only other schools projected to finish with a top 50 RPI. We play them a combined 4 times. If all off Providence, Alabama, Miami and Arkansas finish in the top 50, then it appears like we'll play 8 top 50 games this season. But a team like Providence isn't a guarantee to finish in the top 50 based on how they've played.

 

[WriterGoph]

Michigan State, Purdue and Maryland are the only other schools projected to finish with a top 50 RPI. We play them a combined 4 times. If all off Providence, Alabama, Miami and Arkansas finish in the top 50, then it appears like we'll play 8 top 50 games this season. But a team like Providence isn't a guarantee to finish in the top 50 based on how they've played.

Last I checked, Providence's only two losses this year came to teams who are ranked (MN) or whose only losses have come to teams who have been ranked (Rhode Island).

 

[Gophers7633]

Last I checked, Providence's only two losses this year came to teams who are ranked (MN) or whose only losses have come to teams who have been ranked (Rhode Island).

Agreed, but something can be said for close wins against Belmont, Brown and Rider, and projecting ahead.

 

[dpodoll68]

Agreed, but something can be said for close wins against Belmont, Brown and Rider, and projecting ahead.

So wins* are extending from the football board to include the basketball board as well?

 

[Gophers7633]

So wins* are extending from the football board to include the basketball board as well?

I'm unaware of what you're referencing. I'm just merely looking at their results against an average team and two bad teams, and trying to project how they'll finish. The one good thing is that they did win, despite being unimpressive, so it will have no barring on their RPI.

 

[howeda7]

With how bad the league has been, I think that will be the case. If we go 21-10, and go 1-1 in the B1G tournament, I don't think we'll get in. It's just frustrating because our OOC is garbage outside of 4 games. At this point I'm not sure Providence has the makings of a tournament team either, they struggled at home with Belmont and Brown(of all teams).

Most team's non-conference is garbage outside of 4-5 games. There are a couple of truly wretched teams (Alabama A&M/Western Carolina) that we normally avoid. But Harvard, Drake, Niagra, etc. are not awful. Admittedly if Alabama, Providence and Arkansas all collapse that would be bad. But I'd wager 2/3 will be NCAA teams. RPI is not the only factor they look at. If we're 22-9, 11-7 we're in. I'm not even remotely worried about it. If you change that to 20 wins then we can worry about the bubble.

 

[howeda7]

Agreed, but something can be said for close wins against Belmont, Brown and Rider, and projecting ahead.

Winning close games is better than losing at home to Loyola Chicago right after you got hammered by FSU. Do you feel that Florida is on the bubble if they go 22-9? The SEC isn't great either.

 

[Gophers7633]

Most team's non-conference is garbage outside of 4-5 games. There are a couple of truly wretched teams (Alabama A&M/Western Carolina) that we normally avoid. But Harvard, Drake, Niagra, etc. are not awful. Admittedly if Alabama, Providence and Arkansas all collapse that would be bad. But I'd wager 2/3 will be NCAA teams. RPI is not the only factor they look at. If we're 22-9, 11-7 we're in. I'm not even remotely worried about it. If you change that to 20 wins then we can worry about the bubble.

Agreed, but there are varying levels of garbage. We could be looking at 8 games against 200+ competition. Last year we only played 3, and every other opponent was in the top 150. It looks like we'll only play 4 top 150 opponents this season, last year we played 10 OOC. And sure RPI isn't the only thing they look at, but it's how teams are categorized into their new "quadrant" system, and it's how they categorized teams forever. The selection and seeding much more aligns with the RPI, than any other metric out there, whether that be BPI, KenPom, Sagarin etc..

 

[Gophers7633]

Winning close games is better than losing at home to Loyola Chicago right after you got hammered by FSU. Do you feel that Florida is on the bubble if they go 22-9? The SEC isn't great either.

No, I don't feel like they'll be on the bubble if they finish 22-9 because if they do that, they'll have an RPI in the low 20's. The SEC isn't the best conference, but it is much better than the B1G this season, at least, thus far. The SEC has won 76% of their games playing, as a whole, the toughest schedule in the country. By comparison, the B1G has only won 70% of their games playing, as a whole, the 9th toughest schedule in the country from a conference perspective. That's a big difference.

Also a 22-9 record for us would leave us with an RPI in the mid 40's. At that point, I'd think we'd need to avoid a loss in our first game of the B1G tournament. Because hypothetically if we played a team like Rutgers, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois or Indiana in our first game and lost, our RPI would drop to the 50's.

 

[builtbadgers]

Agreed, but there are varying levels of garbage. We could be looking at 8 games against 200+ competition. Last year we only played 3, and every other opponent was in the top 150. It looks like we'll only play 4 top 150 opponents this season, last year we played 10 OOC. And sure RPI isn't the only thing they look at, but it's how teams are categorized into their new "quadrant" system, and it's how they categorized teams forever. The selection and seeding much more aligns with the RPI, than any other metric out there, whether that be BPI, KenPom, Sagarin etc..

The schedule will likely grade out as quite poor but it will not have much influence as this is a really good team. It does influence seeding but even then your playing a pretty good team in the second round even if your a one seed. Should be noted that the NCAA is moving way further into a ken pom analysis and away from RPI. They made this known in April. Kenpom will have its best foot forward within a week when last year drops out of any of the data. The Gophers will be fine, they will have a boat load of wins. All but maybe 2 teams will go through a period where there is a bit of a struggle. Some nights shots do not fall, energy is down, defense is slow. Heck i have seen teams battle the flu for two weeks, really struggle and then get it together. The only one that has no excuse is poor defense.

 

[Gophers7633]

The schedule will likely grade out as quite poor but it will not have much influence as this is a really good team. It does influence seeding but even then your playing a pretty good team in the second round even if your a one seed. Should be noted that the NCAA is moving way further into a ken pom analysis and away from RPI. They made this known in April. Kenpom will have its best foot forward within a week when last year drops out of any of the data. The Gophers will be fine, they will have a boat load of wins. All but maybe 2 teams will go through a period where there is a bit of a struggle. Some nights shots do not fall, energy is down, defense is slow. Heck i have seen teams battle the flu for two weeks, really struggle and then get it together. The only one that has no excuse is poor defense.

I'll believe it when I see it in regards to them moving into a more KenPom structured system, because they definitely didn't use that last year. Our OOC SOS and top 50 wins were the large reason why we were a 5 seed last year. We didn't rate as a 5 seed in any other metric other than RPI.

 

[builtbadgers]

I'll believe it when I see it in regards to them moving into a more KenPom structured system, because they definitely didn't use that last year. Our OOC SOS and top 50 wins were the large reason why we were a 5 seed last year. We didn't rate as a 5 seed in any other metric other than RPI.

They made the decision after last year. It is a much better measure.

 

[WriterGoph]

I'll believe it when I see it in regards to them moving into a more KenPom structured system, because they definitely didn't use that last year. Our OOC SOS and top 50 wins were the large reason why we were a 5 seed last year. We didn't rate as a 5 seed in any other metric other than RPI.

After we beat Arkansas on Saturday, will you kindly shut up about this "Gophers on the bubble" sh*t? You've written a novel since Tuesday's loss.

Please note: there is only ONE Selection Sunday on this board

 

[Gophers7633]

After we beat Arkansas on Saturday, will you kindly shut up about this "Gophers on the bubble" sh*t? You've written a novel since Tuesday's loss.

Please note: there is only ONE Selection Sunday on this board

That would no doubt be a great win. And I never suggested we were on the bubble, I'm saying it will probably take at least 12 conference wins to avoid that type of talk, especially if we lose to Arkansas. We'll have a much more clearer picture come Saturday night.

And that's fine. I've been following bracket projections for a while now, just giving my insight.

 

[WriterGoph]

Only one Big 10 team has EVER not made it with 11 conference wins: Ohio State a couple years back - but they had 5-6 non-conference losses.

 

[cjbfbp]

With how bad the league has been, I think that will be the case. If we go 21-10, and go 1-1 in the B1G tournament, I don't think we'll get in. It's just frustrating because our OOC is garbage outside of 4 games. At this point I'm not sure Providence has the makings of a tournament team either, they struggled at home with Belmont and Brown(of all teams).

Our nonconference schedule isn't that terrible. We play 4 power conference teams, none of them appear to be conference cellar dwellers, and three of them should be contenders in their conferences. The "unbiased" set of Sagaring ratings (COMBO-ELO-BLUE) that consider only results of the current season (not weighted by starting point assumptions) rates our schedule so far as #197. There are four Big Ten teams with lower rated schedules and there's not a big difference between ours and Michigan's (#189). According to those same rankings, we don't have any 300+ teams remaining on our non-conference schedule.

 

[Gophers7633]

Our nonconference schedule isn't that terrible. We play 4 power conference teams, none of them appear to be conference cellar dwellers, and three of them should be contenders in their conferences. The "unbiased" set of Sagaring ratings (COMBO-ELO-BLUE) that consider only results of the current season (not weighted by starting point assumptions) rates our schedule so far as #197. There are four Big Ten teams with lower rated schedules and there's not a big difference between ours and Michigan's (#189). According to those same rankings, we don't have any 300+ teams remaining on our non-conference schedule.

Our OOC SOS projects to be 252nd in the country. That is pretty terrible IMO. And it's not surprising that other B1G teams have played/will play easier schedules. The B1G as a whole, outside Wisconsin, has played garbage schedules. The B1G only projects to have 3 teams play a top 100 OOC schedule.

 

[dpodoll68]

I'm unaware of what you're referencing. I'm just merely looking at their results against an average team and two bad teams, and trying to project how they'll finish. The one good thing is that they did win, despite being unimpressive, so it will have no barring on their RPI.

It's a running joke on the football board. We defeated Rutgers 32-31 in the 2016 season, and to many/most/all of the anti-Claeys posters, that close win was the same as a loss. The point is that close wins are still wins - they count the same regardless of the margin of victory.

 

[Gophers7633]

It's a running joke on the football board. We defeated Rutgers 32-31 in the 2016 season, and to many/most/all of the anti-Claeys posters, that close win was the same as a loss. The point is that close wins are still wins - they count the same regardless of the margin of victory.

Right, I get that, and can definitely appreciate it. I'm just using the line of thought that if they struggled to beat these bad teams, what are they going to look like in a conference with Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler and St. John's? But maybe they are the type of team that will play down to the level of their competition and play up to the level of their competition. Hopefully that is the case, we desperately need them to be a top 75 team(which I ultimately think they will).