The history of college basketball's offensive decline—and how to fix it

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Let me ask a slightly different question. I think the pace and flow of the game shifted a few years ago when pundits started to put a high value on a player being able to "create his own shot." While that might be a nice concept, it definitely flies in the face of team basketball. See San Antonio's recent NBA championship, when folks commmented on how unusual it was to see a team actually play team basketball. When the emphasis is on a player creating his own shot, the other 4 are usually standing around.... waiting for the game to resume. The pace and rhythm of the game is interupted, with the natural outcome being sluggish offense and lower scores. Imagine John Wooden commenting on how he recruited a player because he could independently, "create his own shot."
 

Scoring is not the problem, parity is. The main idea over the years to increase scoring was to increase the frequency of foul calls. You ever try to watch a game where whistles blow on every little touch foul? Yuck.

As for a 30-second shot clock, Mr. Davis says that since scoring increased (very slightly) the last time the shot clock decreased, that decreasing it further would increase scoring (I assume very slightly, again). What's the limit of scoring as the shot clock approaches zero? Zero. So clearly there is a length of shot clock that would maximize scoring, and we cannot guarantee that scoring will increase just because the shot clock decreases. More shots would be expected to be taken. However, will shot selection improve? Also, what is the fraction of all shots taken between 0 and 5 seconds left on the shot clock? That is roughly equivalent to the percentage of possessions that would be affected; it doesn't seem to me that a large fraction of possessions end up in this time frame.

Another view on the decline in scoring is probably the increase in size and athleticism, which probably favors the defense.
 

Ok, so what I hear Seth Davis saying is twofold:

1. Tweak the rules more. (shot clock, width of the lane, etc.)
2. Coaches need to let the kids run.

Is that right?

Like cncmin is saying, it isn't that easy to just "get out and run." The other team -- you know, the other five guys -- they just won't let you run. I think the presumption in an argument like his (Seth Davis) is that there will be a wholesale commitment in the college ranks to play less defense, or to create the rule changes necessary to make playing defense harder.

I have to agree that the trapping, full court defense and fast paced offense of Louisville, VCU and UCLA (of old) might go a long way to making things more exciting. But do we want all of that, all the time? I don't.

I always look forward to see the ideologies clash in March. Wisconsin vs. Duke. Virginia vs. Iowa St. Should be fun.
 

Appropriate post. Potential #1 seed Virginia has 2 points vs. Syracuse more than halfway through the 1st half.
 


5. There should be fewer time outs.

In January, the website Rushthecourt.net published a breakdown of the final 3 minutes, 37 seconds of a game between Indiana and Ohio State. The Buckeyes mounted a comeback and came within a buzzer-beating three-pointer of sending the game into overtime. It should have been riveting, except those last three-and-half minutes took almost 32 minutes in real time. Free throws and three replay reviews slowed down the action, but the primary reason it took so long was that the two coaches called a combined six time outs.



This makes games unwatchable.
 

And because of their defense UVA was able to come back and throttle Syracuse at Syracuse and win their second straight ACC championship. When they put in the 30 second shot clock then UVA will really suffocate teams with their defense. Each year they keep adding better recruits, better offense is going to Charlottsville and the defense will always be their.
 

buzz_likeyear said:
Ok, so what I hear Seth Davis saying is twofold:

1. Tweak the rules more. (shot clock, width of the lane, etc.)
2. Coaches need to let the kids run.

Is that right?

Like cncmin is saying, it isn't that easy to just "get out and run." The other team -- you know, the other five guys -- they just won't let you run. I think the presumption in an argument like his (Seth Davis) is that there will be a wholesale commitment in the college ranks to play less defense, or to create the rule changes necessary to make playing defense harder.

I have to agree that the trapping, full court defense and fast paced offense of Louisville, VCU and UCLA (of old) might go a long way to making things more exciting. But do we want all of that, all the time? I don't.

I always look forward to see the ideologies clash in March. Wisconsin vs. Duke. Virginia vs. Iowa St. Should be fun.
Click to expand...

The last thing I want to see is college bb become more like the nba. Though many of those Wisconsin type games can be boring, I'd rather watch a few 50 pt games than both teams scoring over 100 pt on a consistent basis. The scoring orgies of the nba make it unwatchable for me.

The 'clash of ideologies' is what makes college bb so much more interesting than the nba, and not just in march.
 

The median points per game per team in the NBA is 99.75 which translates to 83.13 per 40 minutes.

With the 24 second clock (and 14 or no reset on foul resets), instead of a 35 second clock with full resets. The amount of possessions is much higher.

There is also a fallacy that there is no defense in the NBA. Well, the median adjusted FG% (based on points per attempt/2) is under 50%.

While there are some NBA rules worth adopting (like moving the charge line out a foot), and some rules are worth tweaking (shortening the shot clock to 30, with resets to 20 if less than 20 is on the clock on a foul), and going to the International 3 point line and a 14 foot wide lane to open up some driving lanes. Going full NBA wouldn't be a good idea.
 



station19 said:
The last thing I want to see is college bb become more like the nba. Though many of those Wisconsin type games can be boring, I'd rather watch a few 50 pt games than both teams scoring over 100 pt on a consistent basis. The scoring orgies of the nba make it unwatchable for me. The 'clash of ideologies' is what makes college bb so much more interesting than the nba, and not just in march.
Click to expand...

Just two points to make on this, NCAAB will rarely hit the hundreds like the NBA even with rule changes. Games are 8 minutes shorter, so every time you see a (roughly) 83 point NCAAB game it is the exact same as an NBA game hitting 100.

Also, I don't think any number of rules will make NCAAB equivalent to the NBA. The fact is NCAAB players are just worse than NBA players. A big part of the reason for the way the NBA is played is the skill and athleticism you have in the pros, that won't ever exist in college. The volume of schools and responsibility outside of the sport are too great.
 

Lou Hudson said:
Let me ask a slightly different question. I think the pace and flow of the game shifted a few years ago when pundits started to put a high value on a player being able to "create his own shot." While that might be a nice concept, it definitely flies in the face of team basketball. See San Antonio's recent NBA championship, when folks commmented on how unusual it was to see a team actually play team basketball. When the emphasis is on a player creating his own shot, the other 4 are usually standing around.... waiting for the game to resume. The pace and rhythm of the game is interupted, with the natural outcome being sluggish offense and lower scores. Imagine John Wooden commenting on how he recruited a player because he could independently, "create his own shot."
Click to expand...

I think you might be on to something!
 

scher215 said:
Just two points to make on this, NCAAB will rarely hit the hundreds like the NBA even with rule changes. Games are 8 minutes shorter, so every time you see a (roughly) 83 point NCAAB game it is the exact same as an NBA game hitting 100.

Also, I don't think any number of rules will make NCAAB equivalent to the NBA. The fact is NCAAB players are just worse than NBA players. A big part of the reason for the way the NBA is played is the skill and athleticism you have in the pros, that won't ever exist in college. The volume of schools and responsibility outside of the sport are too great.
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Good points and I agree with everything you wrote. The game we played against Michigan State was virtually an NBA paced game and it wasn't boring at all for a Minnesota fan although the overtime that was dominated by free throws may have been boring for a non-partisan fan.
 

Ski U Mah Gopher said:
The median points per game per team in the NBA is 99.75 which translates to 83.13 per 40 minutes.

With the 24 second clock (and 14 or no reset on foul resets), instead of a 35 second clock with full resets. The amount of possessions is much higher.

There is also a fallacy that there is no defense in the NBA. Well, the median adjusted FG% (based on points per attempt/2) is under 50%.

While there are some NBA rules worth adopting (like moving the charge line out a foot), and some rules are worth tweaking (shortening the shot clock to 30, with resets to 20 if less than 20 is on the clock on a foul), and going to the International 3 point line and a 14 foot wide lane to open up some driving lanes. Going full NBA wouldn't be a good idea.
Click to expand...

I would also like to see colllege baksetball refs give the continuation to a fouled player driving to the hoop more often.
 



Don't we see one of these articles every year in mid-to-late February, when we're on the second trip through the conference schedule and defense has the upper hand on things? Inevitably things break open once we get into the tournament.
 


scher215 said:
Just two points to make on this, NCAAB will rarely hit the hundreds like the NBA even with rule changes. Games are 8 minutes shorter, so every time you see a (roughly) 83 point NCAAB game it is the exact same as an NBA game hitting 100.

Also, I don't think any number of rules will make NCAAB equivalent to the NBA. The fact is NCAAB players are just worse than NBA players. A big part of the reason for the way the NBA is played is the skill and athleticism you have in the pros, that won't ever exist in college. The volume of schools and responsibility outside of the sport are too great.
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I understand what you are saying. Just saying that when these issues come up, there are those that want to go straight to the 24 second shot clock. To me that would significantly speed up the pace and force all teams to basically look the same. I would rather watch a few slower paced games and see differing styles and strategies of play.
 

station19 said:
I understand what you are saying. Just saying that when these issues come up, there are those that want to go straight to the 24 second shot clock. To me that would significantly speed up the pace and force all teams to basically look the same. I would rather watch a few slower paced games and see differing styles and strategies of play.
Click to expand...

Agreed. We would be looking at a quick pick & roll game with a shot while the weak side crashes the boards. The game would become relatively one-dimensional and since the majority of the kids aren't that skilled, it would become a less attractive game than it is today. It would, in all likelihood make the game no different than a rich mans AAU competition. I can't speak for others, but the AAU games I've gone to have been flat-out boring as individualism trumps team.

If we want to see more scoring in basketball, then we dump AAU and get those kids into camps where the fundamentals are drilled into them and they become proficient offensive threats.

What is being proposed will result in teams just tossing it toward the rim and then crashing the net. No skill necessary, just brute force. Blah!
 

station19 said:
The last thing I want to see is college bb become more like the nba. Though many of those Wisconsin type games can be boring, I'd rather watch a few 50 pt games than both teams scoring over 100 pt on a consistent basis. The scoring orgies of the nba make it unwatchable for me.

The 'clash of ideologies' is what makes college bb so much more interesting than the nba, and not just in march.
Click to expand...

I couldn't agree more. Enjoy the uniqueness of the college game from one opponent to the next.

On a side note -- I'll never understand the constant angst in sports to try to develop more offence, no matter what the sport. Or the determination to try to make the games 8 minutes shorter.
 

Good points Station and others .. I'd just like to reduce the number of timeouts and other stoppages during the last two minutes. That would be a good start. However, getting the networks to change is the problem in my book. But when TV rules the game, and can push the games to last longer, and longer, the networks can throw more ads at us. Which in the end is the major issue IMO. Of course Seth Davis didn't go there..
 

To take a more philosophical approach: In the 60's, it was an offensive game. The goal of the game was to outscore your opponent - in other words, if you score 85 points, your opponent has to score 86 to win. Then, sometime in the mid to late 70's, there was a new emphasis on defense. the goal became - hold your opponent to 50 points, and you only have to score 51 to win. It was a complete shift in the way the game was approached.

I grew up watching college BB in the 60's - Rick Mount at Purdue, Pistol Pete at LSU, Dan Issel at Kentucky. I remember an LSU-Kentucky game where Maravich scored 64 points and Issel had 51. And that was WITHOUT the 3-pt line.

I actually believe the 3-point line has hurt the game. no one practices the mid-range jump shot anymore - now it's all about get layups, or kick it out for the 3-pointer.

I just don't know how you turn the clock back. Coaches tend to be control freaks - they don't want to turn the kids loose to play a free-flowing game. It would take a major change in mindset to bring a real offensive approach back to college BB.
 

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