ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY – College basketball’s penultimate month has arrived. The final push for a regular season conference championship, better seed in the conference tournament, and/or a treasured spot in the NCAA Tournament field starts today.
As always, we start with a weekly “Field of 68” projection. In multiple-bid conferences, projected automatic qualifiers (best conference record or, if a tie, best NET ranking) are noted with a *.
FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played 1/31/25)
America East (1): Bryant (143)
American (1): Memphis (40)
ACC (4): *Duke (3), Louisville (26), Clemson (30), Pitt (33)
ASUN (1): Jacksonville (153)
Atlantic 10 (1): George Mason (71)
Big East (4): *Marquette (15), Saint John’s (23), UConn (38), Creighton (39)
Big Sky (1): Northern Colorado (135)
Big South (1): UNC-Asheville (182)
Big Ten (9): Purdue (9), Illinois (14), *Michigan State (16), Maryland (18), Wisconsin (19), Michigan (20), Ohio State (25), UCLA (28), Oregon (34)
Big XII (9): *Houston (2), Iowa State (7), Kansas (8), Texas Tech (12), Arizona (13), Baylor (29), West Virginia (43), Arizona State (58), UCF (62)
Big West (1): UC-Irvine (52)
Coastal (1): Towson (164)
Conference USA (1): Jacksonville State (127)
Horizon (1): Cleveland State (159)
Ivy (1): Yale (77)
MAAC (1): Quinnipiac (168)
MAC (1): Akron (91)
MEAC (1): Norfolk State (175)
Missouri Valley (1): Drake (63)
Mountain West (3): *Utah State (32), San Diego State (44), New Mexico (51)
NEC (1): Central Connecticut (172)
OVC (1): Morehead State (258)
Patriot (1): American (227)
SEC (13): *Auburn (1), Tennessee (4), Florida (5), Alabama (6), Kentucky (10), Texas A&M (17), Ole Miss (22), Mississippi State (24), Missouri (27), Texas (31), Georgia (35), Vanderbilt (37), Oklahoma (45)
SoCon (1): Samford (99)
Southland (1): McNeese (56)
SWAC (1): Southern U (211)
Summit (1): Omaha (206)
Sun Belt (1): Arkansas State (89)
WCC (2): Gonzaga (11), *Saint Mary’s (21)
WAC (1): Utah Valley (123)
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Last 4 In: Texas (31), New Mexico (51), Arizona State (58), UCF (62)
First 4 Out: BYU (36), North Carolina (41), Nebraska (57), Wake Forest (70)
On the Radar O’Reilly (8): SMU (42), North Texas (46), Boise State (49), UC-San Diego (50), Xavier (54), Indiana (65), Stanford (68), Bradley (76)
Last 4 Automatic Qualifiers: Omaha (206), Southern U (211), American (227), Morehead State (258)
Non-Power 5 At-Large Bids (3): Gonzaga (11), San Diego State (44), New Mexico (51)
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The At-Larges (Record vs. the Field)
Alabama (11-3)
Florida (5-2)
Iowa State (7-3)
Texas A&M (9-5)
Tennessee (7-4)
UCLA (5-3)
Purdue (6-4)
Michigan (3-2)
UConn (3-2)
Kentucky (7-5)
Maryland (4-3)
Mississippi State (5-4)
Missouri (5-4)
Oregon (5-4)
Kansas (5-5)
Ole Miss (5-5)
Clemson (2-2)
New Mexico (2-2) – last 4 in
Arizona (5-6)
Georgia (4-5)
Louisville (4-5)
Wisconsin (4-5)
Creighton (3-4)
Gonzaga (3-4)
Illinois (3-4)
UCF (4-6) – last 4 in
West Virginia (4-6)
Saint John’s (2-3)
Texas Tech (2-3)
Baylor (3-5)
Oklahoma (3-5)
Arizona State (3-6) – last 4 in
San Diego State (2-4)
Vanderbilt (2-4)
Ohio State (3-7)
Texas (3-7) – last 4 in
Pitt (2-5)
Record vs. the Field (First 4 Out & On the Radar O’Reilly)
Nebraska (4-5) – first 4 out
Boise State (2-3)
BYU (2-3) – first 4 out
Stanford (2-3)
UC-San Diego (1-2)
Xavier (2-6)
North Carolina (2-7) – first 4 out
Indiana (1-5)
Wake Forest (1-5) – first 4 out
Bradley (0-1)
North Texas (0-3)
SMU (0-3)
6-Pack That Had a Good Week. …
Akron, Arizona, Army, Kentucky, Ohio State, UCLA
6-Pack That Had a Bad Week. …
Bradley, North Carolina, Northwestern, Penn State, Santa Clara, West Virginia
Heart of Bubblicious (NET #45-55)
#45 Oklahoma (IN)
46 North Texas (OUT)
47 VCU (OUT)
48 Cincinnati (OUT)
49 Boise State (OUT)
50 UC-San Diego (OUT)
51 New Mexico (IN)
52 UC-Irvine (IN)
53 Penn State (OUT)
54 Xavier (OUT)
55 Northwestern (OUT)
SEC Gauntlets
Much has been made of the SEC’s season-long dominance, and justifiably so. The “It just means more” conference finished 60-19 in non-conference play vs. Power 5 opponents (includes Gonzaga/Saint Mary’s/San Diego State), and somehow 13 of 16 SEC teams have won enough in conference play to remain regulars in our weekly projection. None of the legitimate tournament contenders have fallen off the map; that’s difficult to do with the gauntlets they’re playing. Some of the impressive numbers from the SEC:
(1) Alabama (#3 overall SOS) and Texas A&M (#4 overall SOS) both have played 21 games, with 14 of their opponents currently projected into the field. The Crimson Tide is 11-3 in those games, the Aggies 9-5.
(2) While earning its #1 national & NET ranking, Auburn is 10-1 vs. teams in the field. The only Tigers loss was by 6 points @ #2 Duke.
(3) Oklahoma is 0-5 vs. SEC opponents currently in the field, but the Sooners still are somewhat comfortably in the bracket. Why, you may ask? OU holds 3 high-end neutral site non-conference wins vs. Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan Those wins will give the Sooners quite a bit of equity come Selection Sunday.
(4) Tennessee has played 7 straight games vs. teams currently projected into the Field of 68, and the Vols aren’t done yet. The Vols host Florida today, followed by Mizzou, @ Oklahoma, @ Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and @ Texas A&M. As the bracket stands now, that run could reach 13 straight. Yikes.
(5) Texas, one of my “last 4 in”, just ended a streak of 8 straight games vs. teams in the field. That ends today @ LSU.
B1G Weakling Wednesday Dropouts – B1G Tournament no-shows?
** The 3 Big Ten teams tracking toward an early end to their 2024-25 season with no invitation to Indianapolis:
#16 Nebraska (3-7)
#17 Penn State (3-8)
#18 Washington (1-8)
The Local NETters
#98 Minnesota (11-10, 3-7 Big Ten)
#113 St. Thomas (17-6, 7-1 Summit League)
Big Ten +/- Power Rankings (Road Wins – Home Losses)
1 Michigan State (+4)
2 Purdue (+3)
3 Michigan (+3)
4 Maryland (+2)
5 UCLA (+2)
6 Illinois (+1)
7 Wisconsin (+1)
8 Oregon (even)
9 Indiana (even)
10 Ohio State (even)
11 Rutgers (-1)
12 USC (-1)
13 Iowa (-1) – no road wins
14 Minnesota (-2)
15 Northwestern (-2) – no road wins
16 Nebraska (-2) – no road wins
17 Penn State (-3) – no road wins
18 Washington (-4) – no road wins
Summit League +/- Power Rankings (Road Wins – Home Losses)
1 Omaha (+4)
2 St. Thomas (+3)
3 South Dakota State (+2)
4 North Dakota State (even)
5 South Dakota (even)
6 North Dakota (-2)
7 Denver (-2)
8 Kansas City (-2) – no road wins
9 Oral Roberts (-3) – no road wins
Gophers Week Ahead
Saturday: host #97 Washington
Tuesday: @ #53 Penn State
Feb. 8: host #14 Illinois
Tommies Week Ahead
Sunday: host #108 North Dakota State
Thursday: @ #100 South Dakota State
Feb. 8: @: #326 Denver
Gophers Stat Leaders
Dawson Garcia (19.8 points per game), Garcia (7.3 rebounds per game), Lu’Cye Patterson (3.6 assists per game), Femi Odukale (1.3 steals per game), Isaac Asuma (39.6% 3PFG), Parker Fox (1.2 blocks per game)
Tommies Stat Leaders
Miles Barnstable (15.3 points per game), Kendall Blue (4.3 rebounds per game), Drake Dobbs (3.8 assists per game), Barnstable (1.1 steals per game), Ben Oosterbaan (48.6% 3PFG), Nolan Minessale (1.1 blocks per game)
NET Kings
#1 Auburn (19-1)
Kinda’ Bubble Cutline
#50 UC-San Diego (16-4)
Stuck in the Middle with You
#182 UNC-Asheville (12-6)
Bottom of the Barrel
#364 Mississippi Valley State (0-19)
Take 2 & Find Your Favorite Couch (games to monitor this week)
Saturday
North Carolina @ Duke, 5:30 (ESPN)
New Mexico @ Utah State, 8:30 (FS1)
Sunday
Ohio State @ Illinois, 12 (CBS)
North Dakota State @ St. Thomas, 3 (CBSSN)
Monday
College of Charleston @ William & Mary, 7 (CBSSN)
Iowa State @ Kansas, 8 (ESPN2)
Tuesday
Marquette @ Saint John’s, 5:30 (FS1)
Michigan State @ UCLA, 9 (Peacock)
Wednesday
Oregon @ Michigan, 5:30 (BTN)
Wake Forest @ Stanford, 10 (ESPNU)
Thursday
Maryland @ Ohio State, 6 (FS1)
St. Thomas @ South Dakota State, 7
Friday
USC @ Purdue, 6 (FS1)
Saint John’s @ UConn, 7 (FOX)
February 8
Florida @ Auburn, 3 (ESPN)
Duke @ Clemson, 5 (ESPN)
Deep (College Hoops) Thoughts, by Buzz Studley
Don’t look now, but Maine is 6-1 and in second place in America East play. UMaine appears on a collision course with a rare home game in the America East Tournament quarterfinals (all AE tourney games are played on home courts of higher seed). The significance, you may wonder? The Black Bears have not won an America East Tournament game since 2005. That’s right, not even one. Head coach Chris Markwood was a captain on that Black Bears team. Ya’ think that would mean something to him?
Next Road to Selection Sunday/Field of 68: Sunday, February 9