Gopher Football
We all know what happened when these teams met last year. Had the Gophers not blown a 28-7 second half lead, Minnesota could’ve landed in the Rose Bowl. Surely the Gophers have been looking forward to this game for a long time, and will likely do everything they can to pull out a win this year.
On defense, Michigan is impressive. They have the best rushing defense and 13th ranked total defense in the nation. On offense, Minnesota is proving to be nearly as good as they were last year. Though there were struggles against Penn State, Minnesota continues their streak of 400+ yard games going back to 2002. In this game, it will be Minnesota’s rushing offense vs. Michigan rushing defense in an epic battle of strength versus strength.
Minnesota Backfield vs. Wolverine Linebackers
Before the start of the season, Michigan decided to switch their defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme. The explanation for this change was so Michigan could take advantage of their depth at linebacker. But some people think it was so they could avoid the type of breakdowns that resulted in Minnesota rushing for 424 yards against them in 2003. No matter which theory you choose to believe, their new look “˜D’ is definitely yielding some results so far this year, namely the #1 rushing defense (47 yards/game) in the nation. They haven’t faced a running game to the level of the Gophers, but you have to respect the job they have done shutting down the teams they have played. The two players to keep an eye on for the Wolverines are senior Lawrence Reid and sophomore LaMarr Woodley
For the Gophers, Laurence Maroney is starting to establish himself as the more dangerous of the spectacular Gopher running back duo. Even though many teams have stacked the line against Minnesota, Maroney is still finding the holes and exploiting them for big gains. Laurence is leading the Big Ten in rushing by a wide margin at 134 yards/game. Despite the emergence of Maroney, Marion Barber is still putting together another very good season. The junior is 2nd behind Maroney in rushing at 120 yards/game. At quarterback for the Gophers Bryan Cupito will make his sixth career start. After getting off to a scorching start in 2004, Cupito has started to cool off in recent weeks. Bryan is coming off an 8-18 passing for 113 yards performance against Penn State. Despite the mini-slump, Cupito is still 2nd in the Big Ten and 12th in the nation with a 157.7 passing efficiency.
Summary
This is a tough match up to read. You have to respect the great job so far by the Michigan run defense. But then you also have to remember that the Wolverines put up great rushing defense numbers last year, only to be run all over the field by Minnesota. The new 3-4 look will definitely make things interesting, and on paper it seems like this is a move that should help Michigan. But in this writer’s opinion, you can’t underestimate the talent of Maroney & Barber. Each of these backs could start for just about anyone in the nation, and the Gopher coaches have done a great job of getting them both carries and keeping them fresh. Having these two in your backfield makes any quarterback’s job easier, so this should help ease the load of Cupito. Look for some different looks from the running backs on Saturday that will keep Michigan off balance. Expect Cupito to struggle under what will surely be a big effort to rush him, but because of the running game Bryan should have enough open receivers to hit on a few big passing plays.
Advantage: Minnesota
Minnesota Receivers vs. Wolverine Secondary
The Wolverine secondary is just about everything you could ask for: Experienced, talented, deep, opportunistic & just plain good. All in all there are very few weaknesses with this group. The star or stars in this unit is senior Marlon Jackson. After having a great sophomore year at cornerback, Marlon was moved to Safety last year. He was banged up on and off through the season and didn’t have the year that was expected. This year he has been moved back to the corner. The other big play guy to keep an eye on is Marcus Curry. Even though he is listed as a co-starter, the senior Curry is leading the Big Ten in interceptions with 3 picks in 4 games.
The Gopher wide receivers are full of potential, but so far have been pretty quiet. Ernie Wheelwright continues to make big plays and leads the team in receiving, but he is only averaging a couple of receptions per game. You get the feeling when watching Wheelwright that if the Gopher coaches wanted him to, he could put up some huge numbers. The other big threat at receiver for Minnesota is Jared Ellerson. Ellerson has more talent than what has been shown this year, but like Ernie he has not been needed very much so far this year. Tight End Matt Spaeth could once again be the X factor in the offense. With Ellerson, Wheelwright and the Gopher running game drawing the attention of the coaches, Spaeth could very well find himself with some chances similar to what we saw in the Colorado State game.
Summary
For one of the few times this year, the Gopher wide receivers will be outmatched by the opposing secondary. Michigan is deep and talented across the board in the defensive backfield, and it will likely throw a little bit of a kink into the normal Gophers game plan. In previous games Minnesota has established the running game and been able to hit a lot of open receivers off of play action fakes. However, in this game the Maroon & Gold will find this task a little more difficult. Either way, it will still be important for Minnesota to establish the rushing attack. Michigan leads the nation with 19 takeaways, 11 of which are interceptions, so the Gophers don’t want to be forced into a situation where they must pass.
Advantage: Michigan
Minnesota O-Line vs. Wolverine D-Line
The other half of the Michigan 3-4 defense is the three huge linemen the Wolverines have up front. The biggest and best of these guys is 6’4″ 333 pound junior Gabe Watson. Gabe is an ideal nose tackle for a 3-4 defense and is having a good year so far. At one end is a very tall defense end, Patrick Massey. The 6’8″ senior leads the Wolverines in sacks with 3.
The Gopher offensive line has not enjoyed the same kind of success in run blocking that was enjoyed last year. They’re not playing bad by any means, but they just have not quite been up to the level that fans, and I’m sure the players, expected. But the encouraging thing for Gopher fans is so far this really hasn’t mattered. Despite defenses continually putting up 8 man fronts, the offensive line has done just well enough to keep the running game churning.
Summary
In my opinion, this match up will be the single biggest key in determining the success of the Gopher offense this week, but it’s still a tough match up to read. If you look at what the Gopher offensive line has done run blocking in the past two games, you probably wouldn’t be too impressed. The rushing totals have been nice, but the manner in which it is achieved has been a little on the ugly side. On the other hand, Michigan’s D-line has been playing well, as is evident by their #1 rush defense ranking. This would be a perfect time for the Gopher O-line to get back on track and regain their 2003 form. Pass blocking is a different story and a little less of a worry. So far this year the line has done a pretty good job protecting the quarterbacks. This will be a key factor this weekend, as Michigan will surely try to pressure Cupito as much as possible. Considering this is Cupito’s first Big Ten road start, it will be imperative for the offensive line to protect Bryan so that he is not forced into mistakes.
Advantage: Minnesota
Overall Summary
This is a classic match up of offense vs. defense. Minnesota has one of the top 3 rushing games in the nation, and so far this year Michigan is #1 in stopping the run. Through the air, Michigan has surrendered some yards, but they’ve more than made up for this with the 19 takeaways they’ve forced. Minnesota on the other hand just hasn’t needed to their receivers very much, but I get the feeling there is a lot of potential waiting to break out. Here are the two keys that I believe will help shape the outcome:
1. The rushing game. This is obviously what Minnesota wants to do. If Minnesota can run, they can keep Michigan on their heels and possibly burn them with the pass. If Minnesota can not run, that will force the Gophers to pass, something which plays directly into the hands of Michigan.
2. Pass rush vs. protection. So far this year Bryan Cupito has been extremely efficient in throwing for 7 TD’s and just 1 int. Besides the running game, part of the reason Bryan has done so well is because of good protection. If Minnesota can protect him again, there is a good chance this will continue. But remember, this will be Cupito’s first Big Ten road start. Michigan is going to do everything they can to try and rattle Bryan, including mixing up their coverages and probably lots of blitzes. If they can get to Cupito, there is a much higher chance that he’ll make bad decisions.
In the end, expect Minnesota’s offense to hold the slight edge. This is a veteran group with firepower all across the field. Michigan has a good “˜D’, but the Gophers will show them enough new looks to keep them on their heels.
Overall Advantage: Minnesota