This was originally posted on our message board, which along with corresponding message board posts can be found here:
Our look at Week 2 of the college basketball season, as always starting with our weekly “Field of 68” projection. Projected automatic qualifiers in multiple-bid conferences are noted with an *.
When the NCAA releases its initial NET rankings, the projection will include team rankings. Until then, teams will be listed alphabetically instead of by NET ranking.
FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through November 17, 2024)
America East (1): Vermont
American (1): Memphis
ACC (5): *Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pitt, Wake Forest
ASUN (1): North Florida
Atlantic 10 (3): *Dayton, Loyola-Chicago, VCU
Big East (5): Creighton, Marquette, Saint John’s, *UConn, Xavier
Big Sky (1): Northern Colorado
Big South (1): High Point
Big Ten (9): Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, *Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin
Big XII (10): Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, *Kansas, Texas Tech, UCF
Big West (1): UC-Irvine
Coastal (1): College of Charleston
Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech
Horizon (1): Purdue Fort Wayne
Ivy (1): Columbia
MAAC (1): Rider
MAC (1): Toledo
MEAC (1): Norfolk State
Missouri Valley (1): UIC
Mountain West (2): Boise State, *Nevada
NEC (1): Central Connecticut
OVC (1): SIU-Edwardsville
Patriot (1): Bucknell
SEC (9): Alabama, Arkansas, *Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M
SoCon (1): Furman
Southland (1): McNeese
SWAC (1): Grambling State
Summit (1): South Dakota State
Sun Belt (1): Arkansas State
WCC (2): *Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
WAC (1): Grand Canyon
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Last 4 In: Arizona State, Loyola-Chicago, Notre Dame, Penn State
First 4 Out: Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon, San Francisco
Next 4 Out: Clemson, Georgia, UCLA, Utah State
Non-Power 5 At-Large Bids (4): Boise State, Loyola-Chicago, Saint Mary’s, VCU
—————————————–
Power 5 Head to Head (Gonzaga/Saint Mary’s/San Diego State earn Power 5 status)
1 Gonzaga/Saint Mary’s/San Diego State (3-0)
2 SEC (9-5)
3 Big East (3-2)
4 Big Ten (6-6)
5 ACC (5-9)
6 Big XII (4-8)
(Team) Record vs. Power 5
2-0
Gonzaga, Kansas
1-0
Auburn, Butler, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, LSU, Marquette, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pitt, Purdue, Saint Mary’s, Tennessee, UCF, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier
1-1
Baylor, Cal, Michigan, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Wake Forest
0-1
Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Duke, Florida State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Houston, Kansas State, Louisville, Maryland, Michigan State, Nebraska, North Carolina, South Carolina, SMU, Texas, TCU, USC, Utah, Villanova, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
(Conference) Non-Power 5 Wins over Power 5 (5 this week)
Atlantic 10 (4) — Saint Joseph’s over Villanova
ASUN (3) — North Florida over Georgia Tech
Mountain West (3) – Boise State over Clemson
American (2) – North Texas over Minnesota
Coastal (1) — Hofstra over Seton Hall
Ivy League (1)
(Team) Non-Power 5 Wins over Power 5 (14)
2
North Florida
1
Austin Peay, Boise State, Columbia, Dayton, Fordham, Hofstra, Memphis, Nevada, New Mexico, North Texas, Saint Joseph’s, VCU
Gophers Non-Conference Opponents (record vs. D1)
Bethune-Cookman (1-3)
Central Michigan (2-2)
Cleveland State (0-2)
Fairleigh Dickinson (1-3)
Florida (4-0)
Morgan State (1-2)
North Texas (2-0)
Omaha (1-3)
Oral Roberts (0-2)
Wake Forest (4-1)
Wichita State (3-0)
Yale (1-3)
Totals: (20-21, 48.8%)
Tommies (D1) Non-Conference Opponents (record vs. D1)
Arizona State (4-1)
Bowling Green (0-3)
Chicago State (0-4)
Green Bay (1-3)
Milwaukee (0-2)
Montana (0-2)
Northern Colorado (1-1)
Oklahoma State (3-0)
Portland State (1-1)
UC-Riverside (1-2)
Western Michigan (1-3)
Wofford (0-3)
Totals: (12-25, 32.4%)
The Tenuous Trio – Big Ten squads hoping to make it to Weakling Wednesday
My weekly opine on the 3 Big Ten teams tracking toward an early end to their 2024-25 season (no invitation to Indianapolis & the Big Ten Tournament):
#16 USC
#17 Washington
#18 Minnesota
Bracket Racket
There are 27 bracketed tournaments in November/December. Tipping off this week, with the projected championship game result, are:
Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas (Nov. 21-22) – Baylor over Tennessee
Legends Classic (Nov. 21-22) – Texas Tech over Texas
Boardwalk Battle (Nov. 21-23) – UIC over Toledo
Charleston Classic (Nov. 21-22, 24) – VCU over Miami-Florida
Myrtle Beach Invitational (Nov. 21-22, 24) – Bradley over USF
Greenbrier (Mountain) Tip-Off (Nov. 22, 24) – Pitt over Wisconsin
Paradise Jam (Nov. 22-25) – McNeese over Kansas State
Cayman Islands Classic (Nov. 24-26) – Boise State over High Point
Bracketed Tournament Winners to Date: UTRGV/Southland (Greenbrier River Tip-Off)
Random Ramblin’ Week 2 Musings
1 Ben Johnson (Minnesota) and Kyle Neptune (Villanova) are early candidates to not reach the finish line of the 2024-25 season. Their teams need to start showing signs of life (read: hope) before conference play gets started.
2 Defending NEC Tournament champion Wagner (0-3) is averaging 41.7 ppg, including a paltry 28 vs. also struggling Seton Hall. Are the Seahawks the small-major version of watching Virginia play?
3 I have a hard time believing 1 through 9 there’s a better, more versatile Summit League rotation than St. Thomas. He has teammates that will receive more headlines, but true freshman starting wing Nolan Minessale (8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1.5 bpg) is an underrated Swiss-army-knife cog in that Tommies rotation. Very good athlete, active, does a lot of little things that help a team win.
4 If you’ve seen both Minnesota and St. Thomas play this season, the way they play & the way they look, tell me who you think would win if they played on a neutral court.
5 In his fourth season at Iowa State, TJ Otzelberger has never lost to a non-Power 5 opponent. The Cyclones are 26-0 and counting. And it’s not like he’s sloughing off vs. Power 5 competition (46-35, 56.8 winning %). Consistency, taking care of business.
6 Keep an eye on Micah Shrewsberry’s Notre Dame Fighting Irish. At his previous head coaching locale Shrewsberry quickly brought life to Penn State hoops, resulting in a 2023 NCAA appearance and first-round tourney win. Now, in his just his second year in South Bend, he could be on the same track.
7 Let’s try to put a positive spin on the current plight of the Minnesota Gophers. Yes, losing to a solid North Texas squad in ugly fashion was discouraging, but in all likelihood it won’t end up being, per se, a “bad loss”. And there’s still a way the Gophers can salvage their non-conference slate. … go beat both Wichita State and then either Florida or Wake Forest on Nov. 28-29 in the ESPN Events Invitational. Easy peasy, problem solved.
8 Maryland’s at-large chances will hinge entirely on what the Terps do in the Big Ten season. That’s because their only high-end quality win opportunity in the non-conference resulted in a 78-74 home loss to Marquette. Yes, the Terps still have neutral-site games vs. Villanova & Syracuse, but at this point beating those “brand names” wouldn’t be needle-movers. The rest of the non-conference slate is atrocious.
9 My first of sure to be many in-season predictions. … St. Thomas will win either (or both) of the Summit League regular season & tournament championships. It’s unfortunate the Tommies aren’t eligible for the NCAA Tournament because in Year 4 of their Division 1 journey they’re already among the top programs in the Summit, in my opinion only chasing South Dakota State & North Dakota State for that honor.
10 Preseason America East favorite Vermont has lost three straight since a season opening win @ UAB. The Catamounts have yet to play a home game.
11 Something to watch? Columbia is off to a 5-0 start. Can the Lions make a big jump and compete with Princeton and Yale for an Ivy League championship?
12 Still have no idea who’s going to win the 18-team Big Ten. But after Friday’s impressive win over Alabama, it’s pretty apparent Purdue is still gonna’ be Purdue. The Boilers are always tough as nails. Good luck winning at Mackey.
13 Was very impressed with Arizona State vs. St. Thomas on Sunday night. The Sun Devils were no nonsense and just play ball. Really liked 6-9 senior forward Basheer Jihad and 6-9 freshman forward Jayden Quaintance. The Tommies competed well in their 81-66 loss but had no answer for the size and athleticism of Jihad & Quaintance. The Sun Devils have the look of a NCAA-caliber team, so I’m curious to see if they can string together enough Big XII wins to find their way into the NCAA Tournament.
Week 3 Power 5 Head to Head
Monday
Gonzaga @ San Diego State
Tuesday
Purdue @ Marquette
Wednesday
Alabama vs. Illinois
Thursday
Baylor vs. Saint John’s
Syracuse vs. Texas
Tennessee vs. Virginia
Friday
Duke @ Arizona
LSU vs. Pitt
Mississippi State @ SMU
Nebraska @ Creighton
UCF vs. Wisconsin
Saturday
Cincinnati @ Georgia Tech
Georgia vs. Marquette
Sunday
Georgia vs. Saint John’s
Maryland vs. Villanova
Others to Eyeball
North Texas @ McNeese (Monday)
Northern Colorado @ Washington State (Monday)
FAU vs. Oklahoma State (Thursday)
Seton Hall vs. VCU (Thursday)
Nevada vs. Vanderbilt (Thursday)
Saint Joseph’s vs. Texas Tech (Thursday)
Memphis vs. San Francisco (Thursday)
Oregon @ Oregon State (Thursday)
St. Thomas vs. Wofford (Friday)
Iowa vs. Utah State (Friday)
College of Charleston @ Rhode Island (Sunday)
The Local Guys
Gophers – 3-1, #75 in KenPom rankings
Tommies – 3-2, #173 in KenPom
Week 2 Teams of the Week
Power 5
Purdue – The question about the Boilermakers coming into the season was, “What will they look like without the big fella’ (Zach Edey) dominating the paint area? We received an early indication with the Boilers’ entertaining 87-78 win over Alabama in Mackey Arena.
Non-Power 5
Loyola-Chicago – Sister Jean’s favorite squad passed its first true test of the season, winning a nip-and-tuck 73-68 affair @ Ivy League favorite Princeton. The Ramblers (3-0) non-conference slate is a little light, so they need to take advantage of any decent “quality win” opportunities that come their way.
Next (planned) Field of 68: November 24/25