Gopher Basketball
With two weeks remaining in the regular season, the Gopher basketball team has reached its point of no return. Refusing to win even one winnable game the likes of Indiana, Illinois or most recently at Penn State which could have garnered them some precious breathing room, the Gophers — surprise, surprise (I can hear Gomer Pyle) — once again sit squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble and now are pretty much in must-win mode vs. the Michigan schools this week at Williams Arena.
An optimist would tell you the Gophers are likely to beat fellow bubblers Michigan State and Michigan, but that would require providing some margin for error heading into the final two games of the Big Ten season (@ Northwestern, Penn State). But how many times in their history has a Gopher basketball team done that? The University of Minnesota’s athletics motto is, “We are. … Minnesota.” I would argue as it pertains to Gopher basketball, the slogan should be, “We are. … the bubble.”
A realist (and I consider myself in this group) would tell you they’re likely to split the pair and continue to live on the edge. A split would necessitate a sweep of their final two games to put themselves in an enviable position to earn one of the 37 at-large bids, and that’s the way I’m seeing it go down.
Just the Gophers luck, it looks like they will see a now 100% healthy Kalin Lucas when the MSU Spartys visit on Tuesday, and a healthy Lucas means a likely Gophers L. Not to mention, it appears Sparty has rediscovered its manhood (see the gutty performances of Draymond Green & Delvon Roe vs. Illinois) just in time for their visit to Minneapolis. But in true form, with their season on the brink, look for the Gophers to rebound with a physical manhandling of Michigan on Saturday, setting up — surprise, surprise Gomer — another Pepto Bismol finish for their fans.
Now, on to the Field of 68. I ended this week with 16 teams fighting for the final 8 at-large bids, including the Gophers, and I’ll talk a little bit about each one (see below). The Gophers are still making the cut, but by my estimation they’ve dropped to a Barbasol-close 6 spots from the true cut-line. That’s too close of a shave, so they better start winning ballgames (3 of 4 down the stretch should do it) if they want to sleep comfortably the night before Selection Sunday.
All RPI references are courtesy of Jerry Palm at collegerpi.com, through games played Saturday, February 19. An * denotes the conference leader or, in the event of a tie, the best RPI in a multiple-bid league.
FIELD OF 68 (2/21/11)
America East (1): Vermont (72)
ACC (5): *Duke (6), North Carolina (10), Boston College (45), Florida State (50), Virginia Tech (64)
Atlantic Sun (1): Belmont (56)
Atlantic 10 (2): *Xavier (23), Temple (29)
Big East (10): Georgetown (5), *Pitt (8), Notre Dame (11), St. John’s (12), UConn (15), West Virginia (21), Syracuse (22), Villanova (24), Louisville (25), Cincinnati (40)
Big Sky (1): Montana (113)
Big South (1): Coastal Carolina (84)
Big Ten (6): *Ohio State (4), Purdue (9), Wisconsin (19), GOPHERS (39), Illinois (41), Michigan State (42)
Big 12 (5): Kansas (1), *Texas (7), Texas A&M (27), Mizzou (28), Kansas State (31)
Big West (1): Long Beach State (104)
Colonial (2): *George Mason (20), Old Dominion (30)
Conference USA (2): Memphis (34), *UTEP (51)
Horizon (2): *Cleveland State (35), Butler (49)
Ivy (1): Harvard (43)
Metro Atlantic (1): Fairfield (92)
MAC (1): Miami of Ohio (103)
MEAC (1): Bethune-Cookman (202)
Missouri Valley (1): Missouri State (52)
Mountain West (4): BYU (2), *San Diego State (3), UNLV (26), Colorado State (47)
Northeast (1): Long Island (96)
Ohio Valley (1): Morehead State (99)
Pac 10 (3): *Arizona (14), Washington (36), UCLA (37)
Patriot (1): Bucknell (82)
SEC (6): *Florida (13), Kentucky (16), Vandy (17), Tennessee (33), Georgia (38), Alabama (77)
Southern (1): College of Charleston (62)
Southland (1): McNeese State (157)
SWAC (1): Texas Southern (177)
Summit (1): Oakland (66)solid
Sun Belt (1): Florida Atlantic (111)
West Coast (2): *St. Mary’s (46), Gonzaga (71)
WAC (1): Utah State (18)
Non-BCS At-Larges (8): BYU (2), UNLV (26), Temple (29), Old Dominion (30), Memphis (34), Colorado State (47), Butler (49), Gonzaga (71)
Last 4 In: Colorado State (47), Virginia Tech (64), Gonzaga (71), Alabama (77)
First 4 Out: UAB (32), Southern Miss (44), VCU (58), Richmond (67)
Others Considered: Michigan (57), Penn State (61), Nebraska (63), Marquette (68)
BCS Teams in the Field: 35 (51.5%)
Non-BCS Teams in the Field: 33 (48.5%)
Notes on the 16 Truest Bubble Teams
Alabama (last 4 in): 2-2 vs. top 50 but that RPI (77) needs to at least get in the 60s.
Boston College (in): SOS strong at 18 but 1-6 vs. top 50 is not.
Butler (in): 4-4 vs. top 50 but those 5 conference losses could be problematic.
Colorado State (last 4 in): 9-4 road/neutral record is stellar, but missed golden opportunity at home vs. UNLV on Saturday.
Gonzaga (last 4 in): my last team in could really use a win @ St. Mary’s on Thursday.
Marquette (out): 15 games vs. top 100 but has only won 4.
Memphis (in): solid 4-3 mark vs. top 50, 9-5 vs. top 100. But about those losses to SMU and Rice?
Michigan (out): A win over over Wisconsin in Ann Arbor is a must.
MINNESOTA (in): easily has best 3 wins of any bubble team but those were all with Al Nolen. Publicly, U’s PR staff at least needs to pretend Al will be back.
Nebraska (out): win over Texas has Huskers on the radar and the remaining schedule is favorable for enhancing at-large case.
Penn State (out): 4-5 vs. top 50, but Nitts probably now on life support.
Richmond (first 4 out): win over Purdue can only take the Spiders so far, but 10-4 road/neutral mark will keep them in the mix.
Southern Miss (first 4 out): probably the poster child for how weak the bubble is this year.
UAB (first 4 out): 0-5 vs. top 50 but does have 7 wins vs. top 100.
VCU (first 4 out): I really like this team after seeing them in Bracket Busters, but will wins over UCLA, ODU and Wichita State be enough?
Virginia Tech (last 4 in): solid 7-5 mark vs. top 100 and has 7-6 road/neutral. record Beat Duke on Saturday and it won’t be necessary for Seth Greenberg to whine.
Bracket Busters Impressions
(1) Thumbs up to the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA). Its three best teams all won key games. … George Mason (@ Northern Iowa), Old Dominion (Cleveland State) and VCU (@ Wichita State). If VCU finishes strong, the CAA has a legitimate shot for 3 well-deserved NCAA bids.
(2) For the Missouri Valley, the news was not so good. The MVC flopped big time, as its two co-leaders (Missouri State and Wichita State) both lost. This league should not get more than its automatic bid into the tournament.
(3) Congrats to the Southern, Metro Atlantic (MAAC) and WAC as well. The Southern won all 5 of its games, the MAAC was 9-1 and the WAC finished 8-1. Those conferences weren’t playing the same level of competition as the top CAA and Missouri Valley teams, but nevertheless, well done.
(4) Bracket Busters participants most likely to win a game (or 2) in the NCAA Tournament, if they get there? I’ll go with George Mason, Old Dominion, VCU, Morehead State, College of Charleston and Utah State.
(5) Dan Monson’s Long Beach State squad continues to impress, as it routed Big Sky co-leader Montana. It will be a major upset if Monson’s 49ers don’t win the Big West Tournament in three weeks. LBSU leads the Big West by two games, and the conference went just 2-7 in the Bracket Busters.