The Road to Selection Sunday: Field of 68 Projection — Gophers Bubbling but Still In

The Gophers’ home loss to Illinois on Thursday pushed them to the bubble for the first time this season, but a nice 62-45 recovery & “M”beatdown of the Hawkeyes on Sunday in Iowa City has kept them on the right side of the bubble. In fact, the more I look at the Gophers’ resume and stack it up against the multitude of bubble teams across the nation, the more I’m convinced a 9-9 finish in the Big Ten regular-season standings will land the Gophers safely in the NCAA Tournament field.

This week with the Field of 68 projection, we’ll do something a little different. I’m going to break down the 68-team field into four categories:

(1) The “Automatics” (conference leaders);
(2) The “Penciled In” (teams currently not subject to bubble scrutiny);
(3) The “Strong Bubble” (the truest of the bubblers); and
(4) The “Weak Bubble” (not under serious consideration but on the radar).

Cutting to the chase, the Gophers are one of my final 10 at-large selections. They are among 16 teams on the “strong bubble”. Of those 16, in my estimation the Gophers have one of the strongest, if not the strongest, resumes. In a nutshell, the Gophers’ biggest strengths compared to other bubblers are their best three wins (#10 Purdue, #11 North Carolina and #22 West Virginia — easily the best trifecta) and their overall strength of schedule (#28, third best among the 16). The Gophers’ 6-5 road/neutral record and 3-6 mark vs. the RPI top-50 stack up fine as well.

So here’s a look at how the Field of 68 shapes up on Valentine’s Day 2011. Now less than a month away from Selection Sunday, the jockeying for NCAA positioning truly begins.

Automatics (31) — in order of RPI
BYU (2), Ohio State (3), Pitt (6), Duke (7), Texas (8), Florida (12), Arizona (16), Xavier (19), George Mason (23), Utah State (26), St. Mary’s (31), Missouri State (46), Valpo (49), Princeton (51), UTEP (53), Coastal Carolina (56), Belmont (58), Oakland (75), College of Charleston (77), Vermont (79), Kent State (86), Bucknell (88), Fairfield (97), Long Beach State (100), Montana (107), Long Island (108), Florida Atlantic (116), Murray State (120), Hampton (132), Texas Southern (179), Texas State (249)

Penciled In (27)
Kansas (1), Georgetown (4), San Diego State (5), Notre Dame (9), Purdue (10), North Carolina (11), UConn (13), Kentucky (14), Vandy (15), St. John’s (17), Wisconsin (18), Villanova (20), Syracuse (21), West Virginia (22), Louisville (24), Tennessee (25), Mizzou (27), Texas A&M (28), Old Dominion (29), UNLV (30), Temple (33), Washington (36), Illinois (39), Georgia (41), UCLA (42), Boston College (43), Florida State (50)

Strong Bubble — Made the Final Cut (10)
Memphis (32), Minnesota (35), Colorado State (38), Butler (45), Michigan State (47), Oklahoma State (54), Cincinnati (55), Virginia Tech (66), Richmond (70), Wazzu (76)

Strong Bubble — Missed the Final Cut (6)
UAB (34), Kansas State (40), Wichita State (52), Marquette (57), Gonzaga (72), Colorado (92)

Weak Bubble (14)
Cleveland State (37), Harvard (44), Southern Miss (48), Michigan (59), VCU (60), Ole Miss (61), Baylor (64), Miami-Florida (68), New Mexico (69), Clemson (73), Duquesne (81), Nebraska (85), Alabama (87), Maryland (89)

Non-BCS At-Larges (8): San Diego State (5), Old Dominion (29), UNLV (30), Memphis (32), Temple (33), Colorado State (38), Butler (45), Richmond (70)

Last 4 In: Butler (45), Oklahoma State (54), Richmond (70), Wazzu (76)

First 4 Out: UAB (34), Kansas State (40), Gonzaga (72), Colorado (92)

BCS Teams in the Field: 35 (51.5%)

Non-BCS Teams in the Field: 33 (48.5%)

This Week’s Bubblicious Slate (by team)
Alabama: @ LSU (Thur), Arkansas (Sat)
Baylor: Texas Tech (Sat)
Butler: @ Green Bay (Tues), @ Illinois-Chicago (Sat)
Cincinnati: Louisville (Wed), @ Providence (Sat)
Clemson: @ NC State (Thur), @ Miami-Florida (Sun)
Cleveland State: @ Wright State (Wed), @ Old Dominion (Sun)
Colorado: @ Kansas (Sat)
Colorado State: @ TCU (Wed), UNLV (Sat)
Duquesne: @ UMass (Wed), @ Dayton (Sat)
Gonzaga: Santa Clara (Thur), San Francisco (Sat)
Harvard: @ Cornell (Fri), @ Columbia (Sat)
Kansas State: Kansas (Mon), @ Oklahoma (Sat)
Marquette: St. John’s (Tues), Seton Hall (Sat)
Maryland: @ Virginia Tech (Tues), NC State (Sun)
Memphis: UAB (Wed), @ Rice (Sat)
Miami-Florida: @ North Carolina-Greensboro (Tues), Clemson (Sun)
Michigan: @ Illinois (Wed), @ Iowa (Sat)
Michigan State: @ Ohio State (Tues), Illinois (Sat)
Minnesota: @ Penn State (Thur)
Nebraska: @ Oklahoma (Wed), Texas (Sat)
New Mexico: @ San Diego State (Wed), Utah (Sat)
Oklahoma State: @ Texas (Wed), @ Texas A&M (Sat)
Ole Miss: Auburn (Wed), @ Mississippi State (Sat)
Richmond: @ Temple (Thur), St. Bonaventure (Sun)
Southern Miss: UTEP (Wed), East Carolina (Sat)
UAB: @ Memphis (Wed), Central Florida (Sat)
VCU: George Mason (Tues), @ Wichita State (Fri)
Virginia Tech: Maryland (Tues), @ Virginia (Sat)
Wazzu: @ Arizona (Thur), @ Arizona State (Sat)
Wichita State: @ Evansville (Tues), VCU (Fri)

Updated Big Ten Tournament Bracket (no seeding changes occurred over the weekend)
Thursday, March 10 (1st Round)
1:30 p.m. — #8 Penn State (6-7) vs. #9 Northwestern (4-9)
3:55 p.m. — #7 Michigan (6-7) vs. #10 Iowa (3-10)
6:30 p.m. — #6 GOPHERS (6-7) vs. #11 Indiana (3-10)

Friday, March 11 (Quarterfinals)
11 a.m. — #1 Ohio State (11-1) vs. Penn State/Northwestern winner
1:25 p.m. — #4 Illinois (6-6) vs. #5 Michigan State (6-6)
5:30 p.m. — #2 Wisconsin (9-3) vs. Michigan/Iowa winner
7:55 p.m. — #3 Purdue (9-3) vs. GOPHERS/Indiana winner

Today’s Stream of Consciousness: Is anyone else sick of the “3-goggles” we now see seemingly every time someone makes a 3-pointer?

All RPI references are courtesy of Jerry Palm at collegerpi.com, through games played Sunday, Feb. 13.