Being on the bubble this year is a true achievement for a first year coach trotting out the Big Ten equivalent of the Bad News Bears. Maybe they were capable of more, but they’ve also accomplished a whole lot already.
Being part of the bubble conversation is about as predictable as the sunrise for the Gophers; at least, from what we’ve seen the past handful of years. The days of Tubby were met with seasons worthy of applause, but they rarely met expectations. This often meant disappointment come March. It was like getting that pair of socks as a kid for Christmas. Sure, it was a gift, but you wanted something better.
This year, though, should feel different. It should feel like the Gophers are playing with house money and pulling the rug out from the competition. I mean, they’re in the bubble conversation in Richard Pitino’s first season. He’s doing this with Sun Belt castoffs, JUCO players, former fat kids and hobbled Latvians. Doesn’t that deserve more than just a, “meh, we’re on the bubble AGAIN?”
It all comes down to timing of victories. Pitino’s Gophers blew the doors off when the conference season started, icing the Badgers and Buckeyes at home while nearly taking down Michigan and Sparty. Things we’re rolling until they hit a lull late in the season, which is why things feel like they’re crumbling. Instead, it should feel like something great has been accomplished this season. The Gophers were considered nobodies during the summer, basically laughed at by some college basketball wonks. In fact, my measure of success before the season was just to be part of the bubble conversation by the end of season – at least that meant that the Gophers had achieved some semblance of success this year.
And you know what? They did. We all want them to achieve more than they have this season, but it’s all relative. It feels like the same old Gophers because we’ve seen the February meltdowns and the inability to fulfill expectations, but that was a different administration. I know it doesn’t feel like it, but being on the bubble this year is a true achievement for a first year coach trotting out the Big Ten equivalent of the Bad News Bears. Maybe they were capable of more, but they’ve also accomplished a whole lot already.
GOOD: An apparent Austin Hollins resurgence
Austin Hollins may be one of the most divisive players on the roster when it comes to discussion. For one, he’s a defensive powerhouse, which is always hard to quantify in basketball. Generally it’s anecdotal evidence when concluding that player is lockdown defender. But that’s who he is. On the other hand, he’s also maddeningly inconsistent when it comes to offense, which is the polar opposite when it comes to quantifying impact and success. That leaves us with a never-ending debate about how much court time Hollins should see when he falls into one of his offensive funks. I tend to side with the “he’s invaluable because of his defense” crowd, but there’s plenty of evidence to the contrary.
In what has been a terribly up and down offensive season for Hollins, though, it appears [knock on wood] that he’s in the midst of returning to actually being effective from the field. And for a guy that has lived on momentum for the better part of two seasons, seeing him bust out of his shell this late in the season is heartening. Consider that he’s scored in double digits in three of the past four games, including a career high against Iowa, while having failed to top eight points in the three games prior. Not bad.
That’s not to say that his offensive performance is directly linked to Gopher victories. In fact, the team has actually won more games in the conference season when he HASN’T scored in double figures. But that’s purely circumstantial. When Hollins is feeling it he’s just another weapon on the court that defenses need to worry about, and it gives the Gophers the ability to stretch them even thinner. He’s now attempted 10 or more shots in three of the last four games, which means he’s feeling much more confident. And for a team making a late season push to the tournament, having a senior leader who’s okay in the head is critical to any success.
BAD: So, um, where’s Malik Smith?
Okay, so I know in my last column I noted that Malik Smith’s struggles might actually be in line with the up-and-down nature of a three-point shooter, and that he was just going through a short cold snap. But with the recent string of games where he’s just been flat broke, it’s looking more and more like his role is being minimized and he is light years from figuring it out. It’s a shame, considering that he appeared to be a dangerous sixth man early in the season, and was virtually “instant offense” when called upon. But he’s slowly lost his effectiveness and, outside of games against Nebraska and Wisconsin, hasn’t topped a single three-pointer since January 16th. Even worse, he’s only made one attempt in his past 16 tries. Whether it’s the product of a prolonged cold streak or something that just wasn’t sustainable, his ineffectiveness is glaring.
And the coaching staff is clearly starting to notice, as he’s beginning to see less and less court time. Charles Buggs is the latest beneficiary, but we’ve also seen Day Day McNeil grow into a player that needs about 5-10 minutes per game. It’s unfortunate, because Smith is such a dangerous weapon when he’s feeling it, but it’s gotten to the point that the Gophers can’t afford to give him seven shots a game to see if he’s on. He still has the potential to go off on any given night, but his leash has shortened to the point where he doesn’t have a whole lot opportunity to get going.
INTERESTING: Playing up and down to opponents
Playing the good teams tough and playing the bad teams poorly; that’s basically been the MO of the Gophers this season. And what began as kind of a funny footnote has turned into something that’s as frustrating as it is rewarding. Consider that the Gophers have beaten three of the top six teams in the conference this year and have also lost to three of the bottom four. And in four other games against the upper echelon this season, they’ve played games really tight.
It’s completely anecdotal, but it’s a curious trend that I’ve been following all year. Sure, there are outliers, like when they took it on the chin against Iowa and Ohio State, but there have really only been three games during the conference season where they truly got blown out (and that’s counting that stupid Illinois game, which didn’t feel at all like a blowout). Every other game has been close. Does that mean anything? It’s hard to say. At the very least it means it’s hard to count the Gophers out against anyone in the conference, which is an interesting concept when you think about neutral court games during the conference tournament. But it also means that finishing out the season against Penn State and whoever they play in the first round of the tournament is a frightening prospect. They’ve certainly showed that they can hang with the best, but they’ve also showed that they can play down to the worst pretty frequently.