In my season prediction article before the season, I also shared ESPN‘s Matchup Predictor for every Gophers game of the season. What is the ESPN Matchup Predictor? The ESPN Matchup Predictor is part of ESPN’s analytics tools for college football, providing a probability for each team to win a given matchup. It’s powered by the FPI (Football Power Index), ESPN’s rating system designed to predict team strength and future outcomes.
If you look at each Minnesota game individually on ESPN, you will see what percentage the Gophers have of winning according to ESPN Analytics and the ESPN Matchup Predictor. Now, it’s completely fine if you brush this model off and don’t buy into it. I also have some doubts about the various models out there in the sports world.
Before the season, the Matchup Predictor liked the Gophers’ chances of winning in 8 out of 12 games. The percentages varied between a 99% chance of winning against Northwestern State and a 53.2% chance against Wisconsin. The lowest percentage Minnesota had before the season was against Ohio State, with 10.4%.
One thing to note about the Matchup Predictor is that it changes as the season progresses.
With the Gophers in a bye week, I was curious to see how each game has changed now that we have a better idea of what this Minnesota team looks like. To start, ESPN had the Gophers with a 3-0 record entering their first bye of the season. They gave the Gophers a 57.8% chance of winning at Cal. Before the season, they liked the Gophers’ chances in five of their nine games. Those games were against Rutgers, Purdue, Michigan State, Northwestern, and Wisconsin. Now that the season has started, they like the Badgers’ chances more than the Gophers. Examining the updated percentages, ESPN projects Minnesota to finish with a 6-6 record. The only percentage that has increased for Minnesota is against Northwestern, and that increase was very minimal. The most significant decrease was against Nebraska. ESPN had considered that game a toss-up before the season, but now they favor the Huskers’ chances..
Below, I have compared the percentages of the Gophers before the season and the percentages entering the bye week.
vs Rutgers
Before the season: 60%
Now: 51.9%
at Ohio State
Before the season: 10.4%
Now: 6.6%
vs Purdue
Before the season: 86.2%
Now: 73.2%
vs Nebraska
Before the season: 47%
Now: 24.2%
at Iowa
Before the season: 35.6%
Now: 33.2%
vs Michigan State
Before the season: 69.3%
Now: 65.8%
at Oregon
Before the season: 14.5%
Now: 5.4%
at Northwestern
Before the season: 59.7%
Now: 60.5%
vs Wisconsin
Before the season: 53.2%
Now: 46.9%
How do you like the Gophers’ chances the rest of the season? What are your thoughts on what ESPN thinks?
Comment below.