Gopher Basketball
Now, on to this week’s projected NCAA Tournament field. The most significant changes this week are the Big Ten dropping from 7 bids to 5 (for now bye-bye Sparty and Penn State) and the Big 12 jumping from 4 to 6 (hello K-State and Oklahoma State). Also of note, for the first time I have 4 teams from the Mountain West (welcome aboard Tim Miles & Colorado State), and — though I don’t think it will stick — the “Big BEast” checks in with 11.
All RPI references are courtesy of Jerry Palm at college.rpi.com. Please note than an * denotes the conference leader or, in the event of a tie, the best RPI in a multiple-bid league.
FIELD OF 68 (2/7/11)
America East (1): Vermont (79)
ACC (5): *Duke (8), North Carolina (15), Boston College (44), Florida State (55), Virginia Tech (68)
Atlantic Sun (1): Belmont (66)
Atlantic 10 (3): *Xavier (24), Temple (32), Richmond (75)
Big East (11): Georgetown (5), *Pitt (6), Notre Dame (9), UConn (10), Villanova (13), West Virginia (17), Syracuse (18), St. John’s (22), Louisville (26), Cincinnati (38), Marquette (64)
Big Sky (1): Northern Colorado (147)
Big South (1): Coastal Carolina (62)
Big 10 (5): *Ohio State (3), Purdue (11), Wisconsin (20), Gophers (27), Illinois (37)
Big 12 (6): Kansas (2), *Texas (7), Mizzou (30), K-State (31), Texas A&M (33), Oklahoma State (45)
Big West (1): Long Beach State (115)
Colonial (2): *George Mason (23), Old Dominion (29)
Conference USA (2): Memphis (46), *UTEP (60)
Horizon (1): Cleveland State (34)
Ivy (1): Princeton (56)
MAAC (1): Fairfield (110)
MAC (1): Kent State (86)
MEAC (1): Hampton (134)
Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State (39)
Mountain West (4): *BYU (1), San Diego State (4), UNLV (28), Colorado State (47)
Northeast (1): Long Island (125)
Ohio Valley (1): Murray State (118)
Pac 10 (3): *Arizona (16), UCLA (40), Washington (42)
Patriot (1): Bucknell (96)
SEC (6): Kentucky (12), Florida (14), Vandy (19), Tennessee (21), Georgia (36), *Alabama (97)
Southern (1): College of Charleston (76)
Southland (1): Northwestern State (234)
SWAC (1): Texas Southern (193)
Summit (1): Oakland (82)
Sun Belt (1): Florida Atlantic (89)
West Coast (1): St. Mary’s (35)
WAC (1): Utah State (25)
Non-BCS At-Larges (7): San Diego State (4), UNLV (28), Old Dominion (29), Temple (32), Memphis (46), Colorado State (47), Richmond (75)
Last 4 In: Memphis (46 — last team in), Colorado State (47), Virginia Tech (68), Richmond (75)
First 4 Out: Southern Miss (49), Missouri State (49), Wazzu (70), Duquesne (74 — first team out)
Others on the Radar: UAB (41), Butler (43), Michigan State (50), VCU (53), Ole Miss (57), Dayton (58), Michigan (59), New Mexico (61), Northern Iowa (63), Penn State (69), Clemson (72), Gonzaga (73), Baylor (77)
BCS Teams in the Field: 36 (52.9%)
Non-BCS Teams in the Field: 32 (47.1%)
Updated Big Ten Tournament Bracket
Thursday, March 10 (1st Round)
1:30 p.m. — #8 Northwestern (4-7) vs. #9 Michigan (4-7)
3:55 p.m. — #7 Gophers (5-6) vs. #10 Iowa (3-8)
6:30 p.m. — #6 Michigan State (5-6) vs. #11 Indiana (3-8)
Friday, March 11 (Quarterfinals)
11 a.m. — #1 Ohio State (11-0) vs. Northwestern/Michigan winner
1:25 p.m. — #4 Illinois (5-5) vs. #5 Penn State (5-6)
5:30 p.m. — #2 Wisconsin (7-3) vs. Gophers/Iowa winner
7:55 p.m. — #3 Purdue (7-3) vs. Michigan State/Indiana winner
Bubblicious Games (Monday-Thursday)
Illinois-Chicago @ Butler (Monday)
Boston College @ Clemson (Tuesday)
Cincinnati @ DePaul
Northern Iowa @ Evansville
Bradley @ Missouri State (Wednesday)
Dayton @ Rhode Island
Longwood @ Maryland
LSU @ Ole Miss
Marquette @ South Florida
Memphis @ Central Florida
Nebraska @ Baylor
Northwestern @ Michigan
Richmond @ George Washington
UAB @ Marshall
VCU @ Delaware
Wyoming @ New Mexico
Gonzaga @ Loyola Marymount (Thursday)
Penn State @ Michigan State
Stanford @ Wazzu
Wright State @ Butler
Streams of Consciousness
(1) I hope the NCAA quickly rescinds the rule where referees go to the TV monitor to review anything close to resembling unnecessary use of the elbows. Across the country the amount of time referees are spending on “elbow” reviews is bordering on ridiculous. Games are getting delayed for unreasonable amounts of time. It’s hard enough for a game to develop any flow with all the TV timeouts, now this. A guy no longer can grab a rebound and clear himself space without referees going to the monitor. Making matters worse, the players have figured this out. Any time an opponent even remotely raises his elbows, players are faking like they got elbowed in the face to get the ref’s attention.
(2) What do we know thus far about the Gophers’ 2011-12 nonconference schedule? According to Grandpa Sid (always take what he writes with a grain of salt), NDSU and SDSU both will remain on the Gophers’ schedule next season. We know the Gophers will play an ACC opponent in the Challenge, but we don’t know whether it will be on the road or at Williams Arena. Finally, we know the Gophers will be joined in Orlando for the Old Spice Classic (OSC) by Arizona State, Dayton, DePaul, Fairfield, Texas Tech, Wake Forest and a team TBD. As exempt tournaments go, the 2011 OSC has a very weak 8-team field. Assuming these teams all bring back their key returning players, I would expect the Gophers to be the prohibitive favorite, with Fairfield as a potential sleeper. Let’s hope the Gophers perform better than they did in their first OSC, when they went doughnut (0-3) shortly preceding Dan Monson’s Waterloo (Clemson).
(3) Barring something wildly unforseen, it’s apparent Ohio State, Wisconsin and Purdue will earn the top three seeds in the Big Ten Tournament. Where the drama lies in the Big Ten down the stretch is, which two teams among Illinois (5-5), Michigan (4-7), Michigan State (5-6), the Gophers (5-6), Northwestern (4-7) and Penn State (5-6) will earn the BTT’s final two first-round byes (#4 and #5 seeds)? Here’s a breakdown of what these 6 teams have remaining on their schedule in terms of opponents’ Big Ten record, and how many games they have left vs. the big boys (Ohio State, Wisconsin and Purdue), from easiest to most difficult.
1. Gophers (remaining foes 31-45 in Big Ten) — Done with Ohio State, Wisconsin and Purdue.
2. Northwestern (32-44) — @ Wisconsin.
3. Michigan (32-43) — Wisconsin.
4. Illinois (45-41) — @ Ohio State, Purdue twice.
5. Michigan State (40-35) — @ Ohio State, Purdue.
6. Penn State (41-35) — Ohio State, @ Wisconsin.
Of these 6, I think the Gophers and Illinois have the clearest path to the NCAA Tournament if they can simply get to 9-9 during the regular season, largely because their “body of work” outside Big Ten play is more impressive. The Gophers’ wins over #15 North Carolina and #17 West Virginia (yes, those wins seem like 25 years ago, but it’s especially significant they occurred away from Williams Arena) are plain & simply wins the others in the Big Ten’s muddled middle don’t have on their resume, while Illinois has a solid if not spectacular trifecta of #15 North Carolina, #73 Gonzaga (“neutral” court in Seattle) and #80 Maryland (neutral court).
That’s why Thursday’s game at The Barn vs. Illinois is so crucial. It’s a chance for the Gophers to further differentiate and separate themselves from the Illini.
(4) For poops and giggles, here’s a thumbnail look at the Gophers’ at-large resume and how it matches up with my current “last team in” (Memphis) and “first team out” (Duquesne).
Gophers
RPI: #27
Record: 16-7, 5-6 Big Ten
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-5
Best 3 Wins: #11 Purdue, #15 North Carolina, #17 West Virginia
Road/Neutral Record: 5-5
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 2 (#149 Virginia, #152 Indiana)
Overall Strength of Schedule: #24
Nonconference Strength of Schedule: #122
Memphis
RPI: #46
Record: 17-6, 5-3 Conference USA
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-5
Best 3 Wins: #41 UAB, #49 Southern Miss, #67 Marshall
Road/Neutral Record: 4-4
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1 (#214 SMU)
Overall Strength of Schedule: #60
Nonconference Strength of Schedule: #108
Duquesne
RPI: #74
Record: 15-6, 8-1 Atlantic 10
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-3
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-4
Best 3 Wins: #32 Temple, #58 Dayton, #90 IUPUI
Road/Neutral Record: 6-4
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 2 (#102 St. Bonaventure, #140 Robert Morris)
Overall Strength of Schedule: #130
Nonconference Strength of Schedule: #134
You’ve Got Mail
From the Buzz Clips mailbag. …
Question: This season the Gophers have often played down to the level of some of their weaker opponents. Games like Siena, Cornell, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, SDSU, Indiana and Iowa were all home games that good teams should win comfortably, but in the Gophers case their margin of victory in those games was 13 points or less. When it comes to selection/seeding, do “bad wins” count against a team, or will “a win be a win” in the eyes of the committee? — gopher7 —
Answer: I’d guess margin of victory matters very little to the Selection Committee, but I do believe a team can have, as you say, too many “bad wins”. When defining bad wins, I don’t look at margin of victory but rather the RPI of the opponent. Generally speaking, wins vs. teams with a RPI of #225 or worse (teams in the bottom 35% of Division I) are virtually worthless. When putting together a nonconference schedule, schedule-makers (in the Gophers’ case Director of Basketball Operations Joe Esposito) should try to avoid scheduling teams that are going to be really, really bad (certainly try to avoid teams that will end up in the 300’s).
Though the Gophers’ nonconference resume doesn’t have much “sizzle” outside of the North Carolina and West Virginia wins, Esposito seems to have done a better job this season identifying nonconference opponents that wouldn’t cripple the Gophers’ nonconference strength of schedule. To this point the Gophers have only three wins over teams rated #225 or worse in the RPI, North Dakota State (#230), Cornell (#254) and Eastern Kentucky (#258). Compare that to the Gophers’ first three seasons under Tubby, when they had 5 in 2007-08 (2 in the 300’s), 5 in 2008-09 (1 in the 300’s + a non-Division I opponent) and 4 in 2009-10 (1 in the 300’s).
I guess that’s a round-about way of saying, I don’t put much stock in margin of victory.