The Gophers must defend their home court on Saturday night against Indiana.
EXHALE, MINN. — Now is a good time to take a deep breath Gopher fans, myself most definitely included. After last night’s excruciating loss to Purdue in West Lafayette, it’s ever so slowly becoming apparent the Big Ten’s most likely bubble teams come Selection Sunday will be the Gophers, Indiana, and, yes, Northwestern (peek at NU’s remaining schedule; it sets up nicely to get to 10 or 11 conference wins). After a quick look at the Big Ten in the RPI and how RTSS currently has the NCAA hopefuls projected, we’ll follow with a snapshot of how the Gopher, Hoosier, and Wildcat resumes stack up on paper through games played Feb. 5.
Big Ten in the RPI
9. Michigan State (NCAA #2 seed)
12. Wisconsin (NCAA #6 seed)
15. Michigan (NCAA #3 seed)
17. Ohio State (NCAA #7 seed)
30. Iowa (NCAA #6 seed)
44. GOPHERS (on the bubble, NCAA #10 seed)
70. Indiana (on the bubble but out)
75. Nebraska
76. Illinois
87. Northwestern (not yet on the bubble, but approaching the conversation)
102. Purdue
104. Penn State
Gophers
RPI: 44
Record: 14-8, 4-6
Overall SOS: 7
Nonconference SOS: 43
Road/Neutral Record: 2-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-4
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-7
Best 3 RPI Wins (all at home): Wisconsin (12), Ohio State (17), Florida State (40)
Projected Best Quality Win Opportunity Remaining: @ Michigan (March 1)
Most Significant Home Game Remaining: Iowa (Feb. 25)
Record vs. Indiana/Northwestern: 0-1 (still to play Indiana, @ Northwestern)
RTSS Projection of Big Ten Wins Needed for Stress-Free Big Ten Tournament: 9
Indiana
RPI: 70
Record: 14-8, 4-5
Overall SOS: 55
Nonconference SOS: 162
Road/Neutral Record: 2-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-4
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-7
Best 3 RPI Wins (all at home): Wisconsin (12), Michigan (15), Illinois (76)
Best Quality Win Opportunity Remaining: @ Michigan (March 8)
Most Significant Home Game Remaining: Ohio State (March 2)
Record vs. Gophers/Northwestern: 0-1 (still to play @ Gophers, @ Northwestern)
RTSS Projection of Big Ten Wins Needed for Stress-Free Big Ten Tournament: 10
Northwestern
RPI: 87
Record: 12-11, 5-5
Overall SOS: 37
Nonconference SOS: 197
Road/Neutral Record: 4-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-8
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-9
Best 3 RPI Wins (all on the road): @ Wisconsin (12), @ Gophers (44), @ Indiana (70)
Best Quality Win Opportunity Remaining: @ Michigan State (Feb. 13)
Most Significant Home Game Remaining: Gophers (Feb. 16)
Record vs. Gophers/Indiana: 2-0 (still to play Minnesota, Indiana)
RTSS Projection of Big Ten Wins Needed for Stress-Free Big Ten Tournament: 11
If there’s no such thing as a “must win” other than a one-and-done tournament format, then Saturday’s Gophers-Hoosiers game is about as close as a game can get. Expect both teams to play with great energy, and even greater desperation. That combo along with a raucous late-night crowd usually leads to entertaining basketball theater. Both teams really, really need this one if they have legitimate designs on a NCAA tourney bid. Stating the obvious here, but the Gophers must protect their home court, at least until they figure out a way to win on the road.