THE PENULTIMATE FIELD, OHIO — With B1G Tournament week upon us, the Road to Selection Sunday‘s penultimate “Field of 68” projection includes seven teams from the B1G. However, you might be surprised by the one we have sitting most squarely on the bubble.
No, it’s not the free-falling Indiana Hoosiers, though Tom Crean’s squad most certainly is in jeopardy of not making the tournament. Nor is it Matt Painter’s pleasant surprise Purdue Boilermakers, who earned their #4 B1G Tournament seed with a gritty, methodical come-from-behind win over Illinois to close the regular season. To see which B1G team is most riding that NCAA Tournament fence, and currently sitting in our “last 4 in” group, you’ll have to read below.
This will be our last projection until the grand finale is revealed in the wee hours of Sunday, March 15, also known as Selection Sunday. In multiple-bid conferences, an asterisk (*) denotes the conference’s automatic qualifier or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament. ALL CAPS denotes the team has already earned the automatic bid.
FIELD OF 68 (through March 8)
America East (1): Albany (108)
AAC (3): *SMU (16), Temple (32), Cincinnati (34)
ACC (6): Duke (5), *Virginia (6), North Carolina (13), Louisville (17), Notre Dame (25), NC State (45)
Atlantic Sun (1): NORTH FLORIDA (160)
Atlantic 10 (3): VCU (20), *Davidson (31), Dayton (33)
Big East (6): *Villanova (3), Georgetown (19), Providence (23), Butler (24), Saint John’s (35), Xavier (37)
Big Sky (1): Montana (146)
Big South (1): COASTAL CAROLINA (131)
B1G (7): *Wisconsin (4), Maryland (9), Michigan State (28), Iowa (39), Ohio State (42), Purdue (56), Indiana (58)
Big XII (7): *Kansas (2), Baylor (10), Iowa State (12), Oklahoma (14), West Virginia (21), Texas (43), Oklahoma State (46)
Big West (1): UC-Davis (61)
CAA (1): William & Mary (88)
Conference USA (2): Old Dominion (36), *Louisiana Tech (53)
Horizon (1): Valparaiso (59)
Ivy (1): Yale (64)
MAAC (1): Iona (49)
MAC (1): Central Michigan (74)
MEAC (1): North Carolina Central (111)
Missouri Valley (2): *NORTHERN IOWA (11), Wichita State (18)
Mountain West (3): Colorado State (26), San Diego State (27), *Boise State (38)
NEC (1): Saint Francis-NY (154)
OVC (1): BELMONT (107)
Pac 12 (3): *Arizona (7), Utah (15), Oregon (29)
Patriot (1): Lafayette (127)
SEC (5): *Kentucky (1), Arkansas (22), Georgia (40), LSU (50), Ole Miss (51)
Southern (1): Wofford (48)
Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (44)
SWAC (1): Texas Southern (130)
Summit (1): South Dakota State (93)
Sun Belt (1): Georgia State (70)
WCC (1): Gonzaga (8)
WAC (1): New Mexico State (114)
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Last 4 In: Dayton (33), Old Dominion (36), Ohio State (42), Ole Miss (51)
First 4 Out: BYU (41), UCLA (52), Illinois (62), Miami-Florida (63)
Others Still Under Consideration: Buffalo (30), Tulsa (47), Richmond (54), Texas A&M (55), Stanford (57), Murray State (67), Rhode Island (72)
A little of this and a little of that as the major conferences take center stage for Week 2 of Championship Week. …
B1G Breakdown of NCAA Hopefuls
In case you’re unable to translate the tournament projection above, here’s how RTSS sees the B1G’s 8 NCAA tourney hopefuls heading to Chicago:
Locks: Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Just Above/On the Bubble: Illinois (on, but out), Indiana (just above), Ohio State (on, but in), Purdue (just above)
Final 1st Team All-B1G Projections
Sam Dekker, Wisconsin
Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin (Player of Year)
D.J. Newbill, Penn State
D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State
Dez Wells, Maryland
Power 6 Conference Tournament Picks
ACC: #2 Duke
Big East: #1 Villanova
B1G: #1 Wisconsin
Big XII: #3 Oklahoma
Pac 12: #1 Arizona
SEC: #1 Kentucky
Tournament Where Seeds Most Likely Will Mean Nothing
Atlantic 10: There’s not a dominant team in the A-10 (1st-year member Davidson is the #1 seed), so I could literally see 8 or 9 different teams winning the A-10. I’m taking Richmond, the #4 seed.
2 Teams You Should Be Cheering For This Week
William & Mary (tonight) and Saint Francis-NY (Tuesday) are the Northwestern of the B1G. Both have been around a long time, and neither school has ever played in the NCAA Tournament. Both have golden opportunities to do so this week. Bill & Mary plays Northeastern for the CAA tonight (6/NBCSN), and Saint Francis-NY hosts Bobby Morris for the NEC title Tuesday night (6/ESPN2). If you’re not pulling for the Tribe or Terriers, come on, have some heart.
Projecting NCAA Tournament At-Larges
I’ve been projecting the NCAA Tournament field for 23 years running. Last season was only the 3rd time I projected all the at-large selections correctly. Below is a year-by-year breakdown, as well as how I’ve fared vs. Joe Lunardi (ESPN) and Jerry Palm (CBS/BTN) since I starting tracking those guys 5 years ago.
Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2013-14)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 — perfect —
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 — perfect —
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 36/36 – perfect —
Totals: 750/793 (94.6%)
SS At-Large Projections
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 35/37 (Colorado/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Kentucky; LaSalle in instead)
2013-14: 36/36 – perfect —
Last 5 Years: 176/181 (97.2%)
Since Advent of Field of 68: 143/147 (97.3%)
Joe Lunardi (ESPN) At-Large Projections
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 34/37 (Colorado/St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB/VCU in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 37/37 – perfect —
2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)
Last 5 Years: 175/181 (96.7%)
Since Advent of Field of 68: 142/147 (96.6%)
Jerry Palm (CBS/BTN) At-Large Projections
2009-10: 34/34 — perfect —
2010-11: 35/37 (St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; UAB/USC in instead)
2011-12: 35/37 (Northwestern/Seton Hall; Iona/NC State in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Tennessee; Middle Tennessee in instead)
2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)
Last 5 Years: 175/181 (96.7%)
Since Advent of Field of 68: 141/147 (95.9%)