DESTINATION BRACKETVILLE, MINN. — We all know the road to Selection Sunday is a long and winding road, but please indulge me this late October as I do my “level best” to lay out exactly what the Gophers need accomplish to hear their name called on Sunday, March 16.
When the Gophers and young gun coach Richard Pitino make their debut Friday night vs. Cardinal Stritch in the first of two exhibition games, these things we know almost certainly to be true. Between now and Selection Sunday, there will be joy and there will be pain. There will be potholes, there will be injuries, there will be fantastic finishes, and there will be heartbreak. There will be an unexpected win (or two) that instantly raises our expectations, and there will be a defeat (or two) that causes excessive angst in Gopher Nation (Tim Brewster’s term, not mine).
Highs and lows, ebbs and flows. It’s why we should savor every single college basketball season, and why it’s mandatory we always take time to enjoy the journey, no matter how our favorite team is performing. The college hoops season always is a marathon, never a sprint. A great start to the season doesn’t mean there will be a strong finish (U fans know that), nor does a poor start mandate a poor finish. College buckets has a nice, steady pace to it, broken neatly into three sections: the dip-our-toes-in-the-water nonconference season (November-December); the dive-head-long-into-it conference season (January-March); and the dramatic denouement, the Madness we call March (conference and NCAA tournaments).
So with that backdrop, let’s discuss the 2013-14 Gophers. The prevailing feeling nationally, if not locally, is the Gophers will finish eighth or ninth in the Big Ten. I think that projection is fair, if not slightly off. Me, personally, I feel strongly Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin will finish ahead of the Gophers. Indiana, because of its youth, I’m not quite all in on, but I’ll add the Hoosiers to that group to complete the top half of the Big Ten. All six should safely make the NCAA tourney.
That leaves the Gophers, Illinois, Purdue, and (maybe) Northwestern in the 7-10 slots picking up the scraps and trying to earn the B1G another 1 or 2 at-large bids to the tournament. Which leads to the question, what will it take for the Gophers to go dancing in 2014? Is there a magic number of conference (9) and overall (20) wins that will get them in? (The answer is no, but there still are folks who believe the Selection Committee deals in magic numbers and rewarding schools in part because of their conference affiliation)
Here’s one man’s estimate on what the Gophers need to get done to have a NCAA-worthy Selection Sunday. The Gophers’ 31 games are divided into 5 levels. Level 1 games are projected to be the most difficult, Level 2 the next most difficult, and so on. As I mentioned above, there is no such thing as a magic number, but if there were I’d set the number at 21 for the Gophers. … the goal is a 21-10 mark. We’ll start with the easiest games. …
Level 5 Games (must go 6-0)
These are the Gophers’ most delicious pastries. Soft and gooey in the middle, these foes should serve as nothing more than glorified scrimmages. Enjoy watching the Gophers run, dunk, harass, rain 3s, and dominate. You may find yourself leaving early to beat the traffic.
Lehigh (Nov. 8)
Coastal Carolina (Nov. 19)
Wofford (Nov. 21)
New Orleans (Dec. 7)
Omaha (Dec. 20)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Dec. 28)
Level 4 (go 3-0)
These games might not be decided by halftime. I can see the Gophers with no more than a 10-point lead at the break, but they’ll pull away in the second half.
Montana (Nov. 12)
South Dakota State (Dec. 10)
Penn State (March 8/9)
Level 3 (go 5-2)
At this level we’re looking at teams I’d expect the Gophers to beat, but teams certainly capable of beating the Gophers, especially if it’s on the road or at a neutral site.
vs. Arkansas (Nov. 26) — projecting Gophers will play Razorbacks in Maui consolation semifinals
vs. Dayton (Nov. 27) — projecting Gophers will play Flyers in consolation championship
Florida State (Dec. 3)
@ Penn State (Jan. 8)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 26)
Northwestern (Feb. 1)
@ Northwestern (Feb. 16)
Level 2 (go 4-1)
The Gophers need to make hay here. These are opponents I’d consider most similar to the Gophers, and certainly the location of the game (i.e. @ Richmond) plays into that equation. At the end of the season, it’s important to have some head-to-head wins over teams who also may be sitting on that NCAA tourney fence.
@ Richmond (Nov. 16)
Purdue (Jan. 5)
@ Purdue (Feb. 5)
Indiana (Feb. 8)
Illinois (Feb. 19)
Level 1 (go 3-7)
These are the big boys, and the Gophers will have plenty of opportunities for “signature wins” similar to the one the Gopher footballers recorded Saturday vs. Nebraska. I think I can find 3 wins in this group, but man, 4 would be a significant accomplishment.
vs. Syracuse (Nov. 25)
Michigan (Jan. 2)
@ Michigan State (Jan. 11)
Ohio State (Jan. 16)
@ Iowa (Jan. 19)
Wisconsin (Jan. 22)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 13)
@ Ohio State (Feb. 22)
Iowa (Feb. 25)
@ Michigan (March 1)
Do this and I think odds are on Selection Sunday the Gophers will be in the neighborhood of .500 in the Big Ten and sitting there with 5 or 6 RPI top-50 wins. Generally speaking, those numbers would bode well for a major-conference bubble team. Blackjack should do it for the 2013-14 Gophers.
Thoughts, constructive criticisms, etc., are strongly encouraged. I say it every year at this time, make sure you enjoy the journey!