UNITED CENTER, U.S.A. — Today, let’s not talk about the bubble. There will be plenty of time for that discussion coming in the next five weeks. Let’s talk about the conference tournament most of us will have more than a passing interest in, the Big Ten Tournament (BTT), which will run March 11-15 at Chicago’s United Center.
We’re far enough into the Big Ten schedule where we can start to get a bit of a feel for what the BTT bracket will look like when the #12 and #13 seeds open the tournament at 3:30 p.m. March 11. Locally, as the bracket sits today, our Gophers (4-7 B1G) would be the #11 seed facing #14 Northwestern (1-9) at 6 p.m. March 11. With seven games left in their regular season, a modest but not necessarily easily attainable goal for the Gophers should be to finish in the top 10. Getting to at least the #10 seed means the Gophers wouldn’t have to play until Thursday significant because — though neither task is enviable — it’s a lot easier to win four games in four days to win the BTT than five games in five days. Simple math.
Today’s exercise is about eye-balling what every Big Ten team has left on its schedule. Who appears to have the easiest remaining schedule? Who has the most difficult slate staring them in the face? Projecting ahead, where is each team most likely to land in the BTT bracket? Who’s likely to be locked into the NCAA Tournament before the BTT even starts? And to me, the most important and intriguing question, which teams will be directly on or near the bubble as the tournament gets underway?
For starters, let’s take a look-see at who has the easiest path between now and the end of the regular season. Teams are listed in order of the easiest remaining schedule to most difficult, based on opponents’ conference winning percentage. Noted with each team will be the current record of their remaining opponents (with winning %), and the number of home and road games remaining on their schedule.
Winning Percentage of Remaining Opponents (easiest to toughest)
1. Iowa (29-58, .333) — 4 home/4 road
2. Indiana (33-42, .440) — 4 home/3 road
3. Michigan (29-36, .446) — 3 home/3 road
4. Purdue (35-43, .449) — 3 home/4 road
5. Maryland (37-41, .474) — 4 home/3 road
6. Wisconsin (42-45, .483) — 3 home/5 road
7. Northwestern (41-43, .488) — 5 home/3 road
8. Ohio State (39-37, .513) — 4 home/3 road
9. Michigan State (47-40, .540) — 3 home/5 road
10. Illinois (40-34, .541) — 4 home/3 road
11. Penn State (41-33, .554) — 4 home/3 road
12. GOPHERS (41-31, .569) — 3 home/4 road
13. Rutgers (40-26, .606) — 3 home/3 road
14. Nebraska (49-26, .653) — 3 home/4 road
Remaining Schedule (in order of current seedings)
1. Wisconsin (9-1) — @ Nebraska, Illinois, @ Penn State, Gophers, @ Maryland, Michigan State, @ Gophers, @ Ohio State
2. Purdue (7-4) — @ Rutgers, Nebraska, @ Indiana, Rutgers, @ Ohio State, @ Michigan State, Illinois
3. Ohio State (7-4) — Penn State, @ Michigan State, @ Michigan, Nebraska, Purdue, @ Penn State, Wisconsin
4. Indiana (7-4) — @ Maryland, Gophers, Purdue, @ Rutgers, @ Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan State
5. Maryland (7-4) — Indiana, @ Penn State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan, @ Rutgers, @ Nebraska
6. Michigan State (6-4) — @ Northwestern, Ohio State, @ Michigan, @ Illinois, Gophers, @ Wisconsin, Purdue, @ Indiana
7. Iowa (6-4) — Gophers, @ Northwestern, Rutgers, @ Nebraska, Illinois, @ Penn State, @ Indiana, Northwestern
8. Illinois (6-5) — Michigan, @ Wisconsin, Michigan State, @ Iowa, Northwestern, Nebraska, @ Purdue
9. Michigan (6-6) — @ Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Maryland, @ Northwestern, Rutgers
10. Nebraska (5-6) — Wisconsin, @ Purdue, @ Maryland, Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Illinois, Maryland
11. GOPHERS (4-7) — @ Iowa, @ Indiana, Northwestern, @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, Wisconsin, Penn State
12. Penn State (3-8) — @ Ohio State, Maryland, Wisconsin, @ Northwestern, Iowa, Ohio State, @ Gophers
13. Rutgers (2-10) — Purdue, @ Iowa, Indiana, @ Purdue, Maryland, @ Michigan
14. Northwestern (1-9) — Michigan State, Iowa, @ Gophers, Penn State, Indiana, @ Illinois, Michigan, @ Iowa
***Gophers/Northwestern winner would play Michigan State on Thursday
BTT Record/Seed Projection
1. Wisconsin (16-2)
2. Ohio State (13-5)
3. Indiana (12-6)
4. Iowa (12-6)
5. Maryland (12-6)
6. Purdue (11-7)
7. Illinois (10-8)
8. Michigan State (10-8)
9. Michigan (8-10)
10. GOPHERS (7-11)
11. Nebraska (6-12)
12. Penn State (5-13)
13. Northwestern (2-16)
14. Rutgers (2-16)
Projected NCAA Tournament Locks (5)
Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland
On The Bubble (1)
Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State
Any Wins Help Chances For NIT Bid (2)
Michigan, GOPHERS
Summary
This year is unusual because of the down year for the conference. The Big Ten teams most likely to end up on the bubble (Purdue, Illinois, Sparty) don’t have much for quality wins outside the conference, or within the conference, for that matter. The reduced number of quality wins available within the Big Ten (not to mention several ugly non-conference losses) makes it much more difficult to have a NCAA-quality resume. Hence, that’s why you’re seeing some 10-8/11-7 teams that won’t necessarily be locks for the tournament. Most seasons they would be. This certainly could change leading up to Selection Sunday, obviously, but as of now don’t make an assumption that 9-9 or better in the Big Ten means a team is a lock for the Big Dance.