Michigan is in serious jeopardy of not making the NCAA unless the Wolverines beat someone significant (@ Maryland, @ Wisconsin, Iowa) down the stretch. The Wolverines have 3 top-50 wins — a decent number at this juncture of the season — but after that l
BREAKING BAD, MINN. — We’re only 25 days until the tears. Tears of joy, for a season gone oh so right. Tears of disappointment, of a bubble gone bad. There will even be tears of relief, for those seasons that went all “Breaking Bad”/Walter White on their fan bases, like the one Rutgers is having, and like the one our Gophers mercifully will conclude on March 9 or March 10 in Indianapolis.
Though here in Dinkytown we won’t experience the NCAA Tournament for a third straight season (insert crying emoji face here), the show indeed must go on. It’s time to take a quick glance at how the 2016 NCAA Tournament field is shaping up. Road to Selection Sunday sees one fourth (17 teams) of the 68-team field locked and loaded, meaning 51 spots are still available. 26 of those are at-large bids, the other 25 come via upcoming conference tournaments, or, in the Ivy League’s case, the crowning of the regular-season champion.
Here’s our current breakdown:
17 locks — These teams have already earned their ticket. It’s just a matter of which ones secure a bid via their conference tournament/automatic bid. Among these 17 locks, 7 different conferences are represented: ACC; Atlantic 10; Big East; B1G; Big XII, Pac 12; and SEC.
25 other automatic bids — These are 1-bid leagues currently not represented above.
That gets us to 42 of 68 bids, leaving us with 26 at-large bids to fill. Obviously, that number will be fluid over the next several weeks, especially once conference tournaments start. The Atlantic Sun Conference and Patriot League kick off Championship Week on March 1.
Here’s a look at the 17 locks, some (but not all) examples of teams closing in on “lock” status, and finally we finish with bubble teams at least marginally in the at-large mix, but with more work to do. There are numerous factors that go into selecting teams for the field, obviously, but simply as a guide I have listed each team’s current record vs. the RPI top 50 and the RPI top 100.
17 Locked & Loaded (Alphabetical)
1 Dayton (4-2 vs. RPI top 50, 8-2 vs. RPI top 100)
2 Iowa (5-5, 7-5)
3 Iowa State (7-7, 9-7)
4 Kansas (9-3, 13-3)
5 Kentucky (5-1, 10-4)
6 Maryland (5-3, 8-4)
7 Miami (7-1, 12-2)
8 Michigan State (6-4, 8-4)
9 North Carolina (3-3, 10-3)
10 Oklahoma (7-3, 11-4)
11 Oregon (8-3, 14-5)
12 Texas (6-6, 10-8)
13 Utah (6-6, 12-7)
14 Villanova (4-3, 12-3)
15 Virginia (8-1, 12-4)
16 West Virginia (5-6, 8-6)
17 Xavier (4-1, 9-3)
10 Closing In
1 Arizona (2-4, 11-5)
2 Baylor (3-7, 8-7)
3 Cal (5-6, 10-7)
4 Colorado (3-6, 7-7)
5 Duke (3-5, 9-6)
6 Indiana (3-3, 7-3)
7 Notre Dame (4-7, 7-7)
8 Purdue (4-3, 7-5)
9 Texas A&M (4-3, 9-6)
10 USC (3-5, 9-7)
29 With Work To Do
1 Alabama (5-5, 6-8)
2 BYU (0-2, 3-4)
3 Butler (1-6, 6-7)
4 Cincinnati (2-3, 5-6)
5 Clemson (5-5, 7-7)
6 Creighton (1-5, 4-9)
7 Florida (2-6, 7-8)
8 Florida State (2-7, 5-9)
9 George Washington (1-3, 4-4)
10 Georgia (1-6, 3-10)
11 LSU (3-4, 6-6)
12 Michigan (3-7, 3-8)
13 Oregon State (6-5, 8-9)
14 Pitt (2-5, 5-6)
15 Providence (2-3, 8-4)
16 Saint Bonaventure (1-2, 4-5)
17 Saint Joseph’s (1-3, 3-4)
18 Saint Mary’s (0-1, 4-2)
19 Seton Hall (2-3, 6-7)
20 South Carolina (3-2, 8-3)
21 Syracuse (5-5, 7-7)
22 Texas Tech (5-7, 6-8)
23 Tulsa (3-5, 5-8)
24 UCLA (3-7, 7-9)
25 UConn (2-3, 6-7)
26 Vanderbilt (3-7, 4-9)
27 VCU (2-2, 4-6)
28 Washington (3-7, 7-9)
29 Wisconsin (4-4, 8-5)
One eye-opening discovery while looking at some of these numbers? Michigan is in serious jeopardy of not making the NCAA unless the Wolverines beat someone significant (@ Maryland, @ Wisconsin, Iowa) down the stretch. The Wolverines have 3 top-50 wins — a decent number at this juncture of the season — but after that lies the soft underbelly of UM’s resume. Those 3 wins (Maryland, vs. Texas, Purdue) also serve as the Wolverines’ only top-100 wins, and none of ’em were true road games.