Gopher Football
Penn State Backfield vs. Gopher Linebackers:
For the first time in his career, quarterback Michael Robinson does not have to share time with Zack Mills and has the offense all to himself. So far the results have been mainly positive, though against less than stellar competition. The best defense the Lions have gone against so far was their first game of the year against South Florida (the team that just held Louisville to 14 points last weekend). In the game, Robinson was just 9 for 15 with 90 yards, no TD’s and 1 INT. He also rushed 18 times, but for only 39 yards (and 1 TD). That means that the other three games is where Robinson has piled up most of his stats. Those games were against Northwestern (114th ranked defense), Central Michigan (109th) and Cincinnati (69th). I guess all this means that is that how good Robinson really is still may be unknown. Minnesota has faced Robinson one time, back in 2003. In that game, Robinson replaced Zack Mills and went 16/27 for 178 yards, 0 TD’s and 2 INT’s, and rushed 12 times for 42 yards and 1 TD.
Coming into this game Penn State is 7th in the Big Ten in rushing offense. Leading the way for the Nittany Lions is Tony Hunt. The junior tailback leads PSU in rushing with 371 yards on 49 carries. Backing him up is junior Austin Scott, who was actually the starter against Minnesota when these team met in 2003. With the emergence of Hunt, Scott has seen his role in the offense diminish and he has just 14 carries so far. Overall, this is a solid, yet unspectacular group of running backs. Penn State’s game plans so far haven’t gotten the running backs real involved, and with the way Minnesota likes to focus on stopping the run I wouldn’t expect that to change this weekend.
The Gopher linebackers continued their strong play this season in the victory over Purdue. If you take out the one 88 yard run that Purdue had, the Gophers held the Purdue RB’s to 49 yards on 17 carries. All in all it was a good start to the Big Ten season against a Purdue team that had been billed as a dangerous rushing threat. Sophomore Mike Sherels still leads the Gophers in tackles with 27, and fellow sophomore John Shevlin is 4th with 18, despite missing a game with a knee injury. The Gophers would probably would like to see a little more from senior Kyle McKenzie this week. So far McKenzie is tied for just 8th on the team in tackles, a big difference from last year when he led the team in this department.
Summary:
The key in this area of the game may be whether the Gopher linebackers can contain not the running backs, but quarterback Michael Robinson when he decides to run. As I mentioned last week, the Gophers historically don’t match up well against quarterbacks that can run the football. They did a decent job last week against Brandon Kirsch, but I guess I’m just not a believer quite yet. Robinson can be dangerous on the ground and will present a challenge. I like the Gophers match up when it comes to stopping the running backs. Look for Mike Sherels to have another solid game while helping contain Tony Hunt.
Advantage: Even
Penn State Offensive Line vs. Minnesota Defensive Line:
The Lions returned all five of their starters from last year, and so far this season they are showing signs of improvement. That is a good thing, considering this unit was one of (if not THE) worst in the Big Ten last year. Not surprisingly, this group is pretty anonymous. The most interesting storyline revolves around center E.Z. Smith. After the end of last season he was suspended from the team and from school for shooting and arrow throw an apartment building wall. Smith’s suspension ended only a few weeks ago, and during that time he has gotten back into shape and ended up playing most of the game against Northwestern last weekend. As a unit, the line has put up some respectable numbers so far (but again, against less than stellar defenses). They’ve allowed 8 sacks and have led the way to a 5.6 yard rushing average for their team.
The biggest story for the Gophers on the defensive line has been the play of Steve Davis, the true freshman defensive end. After gaining attention for his play during the non-conference portion of the schedule, Davis had his first real test of the season last week against Purdue and performed surprisingly well. Davis had Minnesota’s only sack, and tacked on 4 other tackles to go along with it. Davis leads the team with 5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, and leads all defensive linemen with 13 tackles. A question so far this year has been the health of senior tackle Mark Losli. After missing two games with an injury, Losli was back in the starting lineup last week. If he can stay healthy, him and Anthony Montgomery give the Gophers a nice cog to stuff running plays in the middle of the line.
Summary:
The Penn State line, though improved so far this year, still is not all that great. Unfortunately, neither is the Gopher line. A big stat for the Gopher pass rush to focus on is that Michael Robinson leads the Big Ten with 6 interceptions thrown. If the line can get even just a little bit of pressure on Robinson that will be a positive and should help produce some erratic throws. The other key will be not to get blown up on running plays. Penn State is not the best running team in the conference, and it will be up to the Gopher defensive front to help keep it that way. I consider this the most important match up for the Gopher defense. If they can win it, I think the Penn State offense will revert to last years form rather than being the improved unit they’ve shown so far this year. That’s a big “œif” though, and I’m sure Penn State will be ready to go themselves.
Advantage: Even
Penn State Receivers vs. Gopher Defensive Backs:
The big story for Penn State this year has been the play of two true freshmen sensations, Derrick Williams and Justin King. Each was ranked as two of the best recruits in the nation last year and so far it’s been easy to see why. King has just 3 receptions, but they have gone for 97 yards and 2 TD’s. King has also has rushed 6 times for 118 yards. All together he is averaging 24 yards per touch. King was recruited as a defensive back, but with PSU’s talent on defense his abilities are not needed as much there at this time, but he is starting to be mixed into nickel situations. Williams has been good, but not quite as impressive as his counterpart. He has 9 rushes for 50 yards, and is tied for the PSU lead with 11 receptions, good for 187 yards and 1 TD. These two players have been a big reason for the more explosive nature of Penn State’s offense, after having been very stagnant the last few years. Not to be forgotten is PSU’s leading receiver, (another freshman) Deon Butler. He’s putting up some great stats of his own with 242 yards on 11 carries, with 4 TD’s. Needless to say, Penn State has a tremendous future on offense with all three of these guys being freshmen.
The play of the Gopher secondary has been another slight area of improvement in the defense. The cornerbacks haven’t been spectacular, but so far they’ve exceeded expectations. Trumaine Banks has been the best coverage guy, while Jamal Harris has surprised just about everyone (or at least me) with his 17 tackles so far. Both players should be tested against the explosive Penn State freshmen. The best player (arguably) on the Gopher defense this year has been junior strong safety Brandon Owens. Sometimes he’s a step late in pass coverage, but you can’t ignore his great job in run support so far. His abilities make him a difference maker, and Minnesota will need those abilities this week. Not to be overlooked is John Pawielski. The senior free safety is coming off his best game of the season against Purdue and will also be called upon in pass coverage.
Summary:
Will experience win out over talent? Penn State obviously has the edge on talent, but the big three players have ZERO years of playing experience already under their belt. On the other hand, the four members of the Gopher secondary have 8. For Minnesota to do well they’ll have to do a couple things. First will be to limit the blown coverages. All three of Penn State’s receivers are explosive, and they can make you pay dearly for even a split second mistake. Second will be for all four members of the Gopher secondary to wear their tackling gloves. Yards after the catch (or touch) has been a big key for Penn State, so tackling these guys early will be extremely important. Fortunately for Minnesota, all four members of the secondary are good tacklers, and there may not be a pair of more physical safeties in the Big Ten than Owens and Pawielski. The big worry I have here though is the Gopher corners getting beat by the speed of the Lion wideouts.
Advantage: Even
Overall Summary:
As you probably noticed, I gave all “œEvens” in my three previews, and I really think it will be that way when you look at the abilities and experience of everyone on the field. Honestly though, the biggest worry or opportunity (depending on who your team is) is TURNOVERS. Penn State is tied for last in the nation by having turned the ball over 13 times so far. On the other hand, the Minnesota defense has been very good in the turnover department and has 10 takeaways, which is tied for 10th in the nation. Obviously, Penn State needs to hang on to the ball. If they don’t, not only will it disrupt their offense, they won’t want to be gibing the ball to the potent Minnesota offense any more than they have to. Turnovers aside, the Penn State offense has improved and has been more productive this year, but this will be the best defense they’ve played since South Florida, and possibly all year. In that South Florida game the PSU offense scored only 16 points, so I’m not completely on the “œPSU Offense is Back” bandwagon yet.
Overall Advantage: Even
Talk about the match-up on the Gopher Football Message Board.