Gopher Football
Spartan Rushing Offense vs. Minnesota Rushing Defense
Michigan State relies on a 4 headed rushing attack out of their spread offense. The Spartans actually have an impressive five players that have rushed for over 100 yards, but only four of those figure into the offense on a regular basis. The top runner for them is freshman Javon Ringer. He leads the team with 781 yards and a 6.9 yard average. The fourth leading rusher for MSU is quarter Drew Stanton. Even though he is not running as much as he did last year, Stanton is still a threat on the ground, especially against a Gopher team that has a history of allowing big games to rushing QB’s. Last year against MSU, Drew Stanton lit up the Gopher defense for 102 rushing yards on just 13 carries.
The Gopher run defense has improved since that game last year, but not a whole lot. The Gophers have allowed 182 yards per game in Big Ten play. If you want to take out the two games against the conference leaders, Ohio State and Penn State, then the Gophers are averaging a more respectable 128 yards per game. So in predicting the MSU rushing total in this game, I’d lean more towards the 128 than the 182. The difference with this game compared to the others is the fact that MSU runs a spread offense. I wouldn’t have guessed it before the year, but the Gophers have actually done better defensive against the two spread offenses they’ve played. They did much better against Purdue than they usually do, and last week they did a good job in containing Indiana. I guess when you add all this up, I’m not expecting the melt down that we saw last year in East Lansing, but I still think MSU is a little too talented for the Gophers to completely shut the ground game down.
Advantage: Michigan State
Spartan Passing Offense vs. Minnesota Passing Defense
This is the matchup that Gopher fans have been sweating about for months now. Last year in this matchup, MSU pulled off the near-impossible feat of both rushing and passing for 300 yards. In that game quarterback Drew Stanton passed 20/31 for 308 yards and 3 TD’s. Unfortunately, Stanton has not gotten any worse since last season and he still has good receivers to throw to. Like the rushing game, MSU also likes to spread the ball around through the air. I don’t have the numbers in front of me on how common this is, but through 9 games Michigan State has 8 different receivers that have at least 100 yards receiving. 5 of them have at least 300 yards, 4 of them at least 400 yards, and 3 of them at least 4 TD’s. The leading receiver of this group is junior Jerramy Scott. The numbers aren’t terribly impressive (38 catches, 559 yards, 4 TD’s), but it does get a little scarier when you consider there are 3 other guys who have nearly identical numbers as him.
Similar to the rushing defense, the pass defense is improved this year but is still of concern. The Gopher rank 3rd in total pass defense, 3rd in passing TD’s allowed, and 5th in pass efficiency defense. Despite the improvements, I’m not convinced this is a good matchup for Minnesota. The Gophers have a bad history of defending spread offenses when there is a better than average passing quarterback on the other side. What worries me is that we’ll likely rely heavily on our three linebackers dropped back in zone coverage, and this is a scheme that I don’t have good memories of. The LB’s need to play their game of the year because a lot of Michigan State’s passing will be focus on the areas that the linebackers will be covering. Shevlin, McKenzie and Sherels will need to play the right areas, and more importantly tackle well. (My guess is we’ll see more of Mario Reese and less of Mike Sherels though). Same thing goes for the secondary. Stanton is not going to throw downfield a ton, so it will be important to tackle well to prevent yards after the catch that translate into big plays.
Advantage: Michigan State
Minnesota Rushing Offense vs. Spartan’s Rushing Defense
The Spartans aren’t as good as they have been the past couple years when it comes to stopping the run. They rank just 9th in the Big Ten with a 4.9 rushing yards against average. This doesn’t bode well against the team with the top rushing offense in the nation. The leading tackler for MSU is their strong safety, senior Eric Smith. His 85 tackles are 30 more than anyone else on the team, so it’s pretty obvious that MSU likes to cheat him up a little. This may assist the Spartan rushing defense, but we’ve seen Gopher teams run through 8 man fronts before.
There was a little bit of a scare in the first half last week against Indiana, but the Gopher rushing offense quickly proved in the second half that there was absolutely nothing to worry about. Led by Gary Russell, the Gopher ground game was in full force and turned in another 300+ yard rushing performance. This will be the last home game for offensive linemen Mark Setterstrom, Greg Eslinger and Mike Nicholson, so you can expect them to at their best. Oh yeah, the Gophers are also at home, where they have a 2+ year streak going of games where they have rushed for 150+ yards. The last time they didn’t? 2003 vs. Michigan State, the last time the Spartans visited the dome. Barring a 2003 like situation where the Gophers find themselves trailing by 17 points before they even get a first down, I don’t see any reason why the Gophers shouldn’t be able to pile up around 300 yards in this game. Even though Michigan State is the only team to have had success against the Gophers running game two years in a row, I think that the intangibles of senior day, home game, and an improved Gopher rushing attack will reverse the past misfortunes.
Advantage: Minnesota
Minnesota Passing Offense vs. Spartan Passing Defense
Like the rushing defense, the Spartan passing defense isn’t anything to write home about. The Spartans rank 10th in the Big Ten in passing defense. Their weak points are TD passes allowed (9th in the Big Ten) and yards per catch (8th in the Big Ten). As I mentioned above, based on the 82 tackles that Eric Smith has, it looks as though MSU will not hesitate to bring him up in an attempt to stop the run. If they do, that could make things even more difficult for the secondary. That’s because Minnesota has really started cranking up their passing game since they came off the bye. Before throwing for 225 yards against Indiana, Bryan Cupito threw for 396 yards against Ohio State. Never in Cupito’s career has he looked so poised and confident throwing the ball. Just as importantly, the Gopher receivers have played pretty well over these two games. If MSU makes a conscious attempt to take the Minnesota passing game away, maybe they could do it, but with the way the Gopher running game is clicking I can’t believe that they’d actually try to do that. I keep bringing up getting behind early, but I think it’s also a factor in the passing game as well. If Minnesota can throw the ball after they’ve established the run, I think they’ll have success.
Advantage: Minnesota
Special Teams Notes
I don’t think that Minnesota is going to have a special teams advantage in any of their remaining games. First it was missing extra points, then it was poor punting, then it was allowing kickoff returns for TD’s, then it was allowing a 40 yard onsides kicks, then dropping punt snaps and having the punt block, and now it’s back to missing extra points. The Gophers have endured just about every kind of disaster imaginable on special teams this year. To make things worse, special teams is probably where Michigan State is the strongest (relatively speaking). They are 1st in the Big Ten in kickoff returns, (MN ““ 3rd), 7th in punting (MN ““ 11th), 2nd in punt returns (MN ““ 9th), 1st in XP’s (MN ““ 11th), 6th in kickoff coverage (MN ““ 8th). The only advantage I could find for Minnesota was in field goals, where the Gophers are 8th (8 of 13), and MSU is 11th (3 of 10). If Michigan State is going to win this game, Special Teams will probably be a big reason why.
Advantage: Michigan State
Final Thoughts
If you like offense, this is game for you. Actually, if you like offense, this is the league for you. The Big Ten is playing very little defense this year, and these two teams are a key reason why. When Iowa is allowing 21 points per game and they’re 3rd in the conference in points allowed, you know you have no defense. (If Iowa were in the SEC, they’d be 8th in scoring defense.) Getting back on topic, this is a game that should feature plenty of offense from both teams. I like Minnesota in the end though, and here’s why. Minnesota is just playing better on offense than Michigan State is. Before scoring 42 points against Indiana, the Gophers were putting up 31 points and 578 yards against Ohio State, and before that 34 points and over 400 yards rushing against Wisconsin. With this being the last home game for the key cog in the rushing offense, I am expecting great things. Even though Michigan State will score, the Gophers will hang onto the ball just enough to prevent the Spartans from scoring too much.
Prediction: Minnesota 42 ““ Michigan State 34
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