Gopher Football
Michigan Update ….
Michigan is off to a high flying start this season with a 4-0 record. After waltzing through their first two non conference games (against Central Michigan and Vanderbilt), the Wolverines destroyed Notre Dame at Sound Bend and then put together a dominating second half on Saturday in their 27-13 win over Wisconsin. After scoring 10 points in the first half, it took Wisconsin until over half way through the fourth quarter before they got their first down of the second half. Michigan’s defense has been playing great all year and they have big play ability on offense with the emergence of wide receiver Mario Manningham. Michigan is a complete football team right now.
Gophers Update….
The Gophers are coming off a tough 27-21 loss to Purdue and currently sit at 2-2. The defense performed perhaps better than expected against the Boilermakers (but still gave up a lot of yards), but a couple of turnovers by the offense and a special teams blunder blew any chance they had to win they game. Amir Pinnix had a breakout game with 178 rushing to lead the offense. The Gophers earlier blowout loss against California doesn’t look nearly as bad now after Cal dismantled #22 Arizona State on Saturday, building a 42-14 halftime lead on their way to a 49-21 win.
MICHIGAN ON THE GROUND
Michigan is a definite run-first team. Through their first four games two thirds of their offensive plays have been on the ground. That’s a bit surprising me when you look at the success they’ve had passing, but I’ll get to that in a bit. When you look at the numbers the Woverines don’t appear to be a horribly impressive rushing team. Junior Mike Hart is in his third year as a starter and leads the team with 489 yards on 104 carries (with his best game coming against a weak Vanderbilt team). Backup Kevin Grady is averaging just 3.6 yards on 27 carries. But even though they aren’t putting up huge numbers in terms of yardage, they are doing a good job at dominating the possession and grinding down opposing defenses. Both Hart and Grady are good talents at running back, and they run behind a good offensive line. They may not have the big names that you usually associate with the Michigan offensive line, but they’re still solid none the less.
Stopping the run is always a priority for Minnesota, so perhaps the most disappointing thing for the coaches last week was watching Purdue rush for 178 yards on Saturday (6.2 per carry). Traditionally the Gophers fare better against straight ahead rushing teams like Michigan rather than spread offense teams like Purdue, so maybe we’ll see some improvements this week. Tackling still needs to be improved though for Minnesota to slow down the Wolverine attack. Michigan’s newly implemented zone blocking scheme will be interesting to watch and to see how the Gophers respond.
Advantage: Even
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE AIR
The Wolverines have found their next great wide receiver in sophomore Mario Manningham. After showing flashes last year as a true freshman, Manningham has stepped up and become the go to, big play guy in Michigan’s aerial assault. After not being a factor in Michigan’s first two easy non conference games, Manningham lit it up the past two Saturday’s against Notre Dame and Wisconsin with 249 yards and 5 TD’s. #86 probably will be wearing #1 next year, but for this year he’s going to be the focus of Minnesota defensive game plan. Manningham’s companions receiving the ball are talented, but under used. Senior Steve Breaston is second on the team in receiving, but only has 140 yards. Even though Breaston is extremely dangerous as a return man, he just has never really been too much of a factor as a receiver. Someone who is on the verge for Michigan is junior Adrian Arrington. After missing most of last year with an injury, Arrington is slowly becoming a bigger part of the Wolverine offense and by the end of the year could be Chad Henne’s number two guy. Speaking of Henne, he just continues to plug along. He’s not real flashy, he’s not terribly mobile, but he is a very good, strong armed, accurate passer. He’s throwing for 60% this year with 7 TD’s and 4 int’s.
An area where the Gophers continue to struggle is in their pass defense. It’s not any one person’s fault either; it’s more of a team effort. The corner backs are having problems sticking with receivers, the linebackers are not quick enough to help out in coverage and the defensive line is not generating a pass rush. The most concerning of these problems is the pass rush. Despite Coach Mason speaking highly of both Steve Davis and Willie VanDeSteeg before the season, both players were very quiet against Purdue. This allowed Purdue quarterback Curtis Painter to just sit back in pocket and wait for his receivers to get open. Improving the pass rush has to be priority number one against Michigan, because if Henne is given the same kind of time that Painter was, he will likely light up the Gopher defense more than Purdue did.
Advantage: Michigan
MINNESOTA ON THE GROUND
After weeks of waiting, Gopher fans finally saw the 2006 coming out party for running back Amir Pinnix. Amir got the start against Purdue and did not disappoint. He carried a lot of the weight of the Minnesota offense on his back by rushing 28 times for 172 yards, many of which were very tough runs. A healthy and contributing Amir Pinnix will do wonders for the Gopher offense. Pinnix supplants Alex Daniels as the Gopher starter. Daniels production had been declining from his big first game, and at times against Purdue looked a step too slow. With quicker Big Ten teams now coming up, Daniels may find himself more of a short yardage and change of pace back behind Pinnix. Some good news against Purdue was that true freshman E.J. Jones returned to the field after being injured the first game of the season. If he is indeed 100% and able to play, this game would be as good of a time as any to use him since Michigan doesn’t know who he is. The Gopher rushing game took a step up last week against Purdue but still has some room for improvement. It will be a challenge though to see how they do against what will be the best run defense they have faced to date.
In college football, quarterback sacks count against a teams rushing total rather than the passing total. Because of that Michigan’s rushing yards allowed is a bit misleading. I wanted to make sure I mentioned that before I told you that Michigan is allowing only 18 rushing yards per game. Not 118″¦. just 18. A closer look into that shows these numbers produced by starting running backs: Wisconsin: 54, Notre Dame: 25, Central Michigan: 33 and Vanderbilt: 22. So yeah, they’re still doing a great job against the run. It’s a total team effort for Michigan, but they’re led by linebacker David Harris. The senior Harris leads the team with 26 tackles. Linebacker Prescott Burgess is also another menace to opposing running backs, and the entire defensive front is playing very well. Even though Michigan has put up some great defensive numbers so far, I think the fact that Minnesota is at home (where they always have success running) and that emergence of Amir Pinnix should help to produce some success”¦ Although I don’t think it will be the 424 yards that Minnesota rushed for the last time Michigan visited the Metrodome in 2003.
Advantage: Even
MINNESOTA THROUGH THE AIR
The Gopher passing game is still a work in progress. It’s always worked better when the running game has been established, but because the running game is not as good this year there is more pressure on the passing game to succeed on its own. In the past few years there have been a lot of 3rd and short situations, but this year there have been more 3rd and longs, and the Gopher passing game just isn’t designed for that. One area that does need improvement immediately (like, today) is pass protection. As fans we were spoiled last year when the offensive line allowed just 3 sacks all season long, but that numbered was equaled in just one game against Purdue. Michigan, led by LaMarr Woodley (5 sacks) is a much better pass rushing team than Purdue is, so the Gopher line will have their work cut out for them.
I mentioned above that LaMarr Woodley has 5 sacks already. Even though he’s the team leader, he’s far from the only one creating havoc. Michigan has 9 different guys who’ve recorded sacks already and have 17 as a team. They have the talent to be in Bryan Cupito’s face all day, so that’s why it’s even more important for Minnesota to establish the run. The Gophers won’t win this game if they’re repeatedly forced into 3rd and long situations and the Michigan defensive front is allowed to tee off on Cupito. In the secondary Michigan is solid, but they’re not as good as their front 7. Cornerback Leon Hall is its best player, and he is the only member of the secondary to get an interception so far. Overall, I like the Gophers chances to have some success through the air, but ONLY if they can avoid third and long situations (in other words, have a productive running game) and if they can provide good protection for Cupito. One thing to watch will be to see how many receivers the Gophers send out into patterns and how many guys they choose to keep back to block.
Advantage: Even
BOTTOM LINE
Over the last three seasons there hasn’t been a better game in the Big Ten than Michigan ““ Minnesota. We all remember 2003 when the Gophers blew a 21 point four quarter lead and lost on a late field goal, 38-35. Then in 2004 Michigan needed a late drive and touchdown pass to beat the Gophers 24-20. And who can forget last year when Gary Russel’s late 61 run set the Gophers up for the winning field goal with 1 second left. Will this year’s game be as good? Maybe, but chances are “œNo”. Michigan is playing well on offense and defense right now, and the Gophers have a lot of problems to straighten out. In recent years though Minnesota has played Michigan tough, so I don’t think the game will be a blowout. If the Gophers can fix some mistakes that have existed in their two losses then I wouldn’t be shocked to see us win. But in the end I think that Michigan is just too good this year.
Prediction: Michigan 31 – Minnesota 20.
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