Preview: Gophers vs. Wisconsin

Warning: Gopher players should not read this paragraph. That’s because I’m just a wee bit pumped up for this game. Ok, I’m a lot pumped up. This is it. This is the one – the one we’ve been waiting for. This (excuse me while I laugh in the face of the one-game-at-a-time cliche) is the game that could finally put the Gophers in a legitimate position to get back to the Big Dance. The last game of that magnitude came against Illinois three long years ago. THIS IS THE GAME OF THE SEASON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

But while I’ve lost all focus and can hardly sleep at night as visions of an improbable 173-0 Minnesota victory race through my head, the Gopher players need to be focused. They need to find the right balance between “big game” and “just another game”, because if things don’t go there way, there’s still a lot of season remaining. Minnesota is coming off a nice confidence-booster at Michigan, but things will be tougher on Saturday.

Wisconsin is ranked #19 in the country after all, and while I can make a legitimate case for Minnesota having several match-up advantages (not to mention the home crowd), the Badgers are still a team that [unfortunately] finds a way to win on the road more often than not. That hasn’t changed.

What has changed is what now gives me the most confidence – Devin Harris is gone. That would be Devin “NBA Lottery Pick and player capable of completely taking over a game all by himself and basically making the other 9 players on the court non-factors” Harris. Devin Harris was a beast in The Barn, but Devin Harris is now gone. Granted, the Badgers are still plenty talented and capable of spoiling my Saturday of Dreams, but they’ll need a complete team effort to do it.

That effort is usually focussed around 6’8″ senior Mike Wilkinson. Wilkinson is a player who does everything well, and he’s now also become a player who tends to make a big play when his team needs one. He’s averaging an impressive 14 points and 7 rebounds on the season and is shooting 52% from the field.

The highlight-reel yin to Wilkinson’s steady yang (say what?) is 6’5″ sophomore Alando Tucker. Tucker was the most explosive player in the Big Ten two years as a freshman, but after missing last season with a foot injury and being hampered with nagging injuries again this year, he’s lost a touch of that ability to dominant. Tucker is still a player to be feared though. He leads the Badgers at 15 ppg, grabs 7 rebounds a game, shoots 50% from the floor, and has now developed three-point range. Tucker sat out Wisconsin’s last two games (Penn State and Northwestern), but I would be surprised if he is not on the floor on Saturday.

Wilkinson and Tucker made the Badger frontcourt a given, but there were plenty of questions about the backcourt coming into the season. Gone were Harris and Freddie Owens, and questionable (and now gone) was Boo Wade. That left an unproven sophomore, a former walk-on, and a senior transfer trying to come back from injury as the players who would determine Wisconsin’s success. Unfortunately (for Gopher fans), those three players have delivered.

Former Penn State guard Sharif Chambliss (9 ppg, 42% 3pt) gives the Badgers the quick ball-handler and explosive three-point shooter they needed. Minneapolis North’s Kammron Taylor (9 ppg) has made great strides in recent weeks and is now an offensive threat to be reckoned with after leading the Badgers in scoring the past two games. And 6’5″ Clayton Hanson (8 ppg, 46% 3pt), now on scholarship, has become one of the Big Ten’s best 3-point shooters.

The Badger bench consists of 6’8″ do-everything senior Zach Morley (7 ppg, 5 rpg), 6’11” McDonald’s All-American [but so far relative non-factor] Brian Butch (5 ppg, 3 rpg), 6’9″ senior Andreas Helmigk (3 ppg), athletic 6’8″ junior Ray Nixon (3 ppg), and, if necessary, 6’2″ freshman Michael Flowers (1 ppg).

Here are my Gopher Keys of the Game:

1. Sharpen the Handles. Other than committing 25 turnovers, the Gophers played a perfect game at Michigan Wednesday night. That’s a pretty big “other”, though. 25 turnovers against Wisconsin will likely spell disaster. If they can play like they did Wednesday and take better care of the ball though, the Gophers will win. Wisconsin is last in the league in steals (while Minnesota is #1), so there’s no reason why the Gophers shouldn’t be able to stay below 16 turnovers if they stay calm and play their game.

2. Make ’em Drive. The most dangerous thing the Badger backcourt does is shoot three-pointers. With Hanson, that’s all you need to worry about stopping. Chambliss’ quickness makes him a little more dangerous off the dribble, but he’s much more likely to pull-up behind the arc (where 2/3 of his shots come from). It’s actually now the freshman Taylor who’s the biggest threat to get to the basket and/or the free throw line. The Gophers have the quickness to stay with him though, so making sure the Badger guards don’t get open looks from the perimeter (and especially making sure they don’t get a chance to get hot) is the key. Stay in their face, and don’t lose them in the Badger motion offense.

3. Keep Feeding the Horses. I’ve said it every game except for Illinois, and I’ll say it again: Wisconsin doesn’t have anybody who can guard Jeff Hagen. Wilkinson doesn’t have the size; Helmigk doesn’t have the talent; and Butch doesn’t have the experience. Jeff is going to have some mismatches, and the Gophers need to exploit them. And if Jeff gets doubled, they need to cut to the basket and find gaps on the perimeter. Depending on whether Wisconsin stays small when Tucker’s not in the game, Minnesota could also have some size advantages at the ‘4’ (with Dan Coleman or Spencer Tollackson) and at the ‘3’ (with Vincent Grier, who has an effective post game against smaller players). If the Gophers can take control of the paint, it will become much easier to find open looks on the perimeter.

4. Carpe Diem. Since this is such a huge game, I decided to roll out a fourth key. Simply put, the Gophers need to take advantage of this great opportunity. Top 20 opponent, national TV, sold out Barn, fired up fans, a huge step in the NCAA Tournament climb, and heck, even the debut of a revamped scoreboard – games like this don’t come around too often. The falterings of past years are meaningless. This is a completely different Gopher team, and they’ve been taking care of busy on a regular basis. This is their chance to shine, and they need to go all out for it.

Did I mention that I’m just a wee bit excited for this game? I hope 14,624 other Gopher fans are as well. Remember to wear Gold. Remember to scream at the top of your lungs for 40 minutes no matter what happens. Remember to show the 12 new Gophers just how loud The Barn can get (because they haven’t seen anything yet). Remember to forget about the past. And remember that THIS IS THE GAME OF THE SEASON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No final analysis is required, because there’s absolutely no way I’m going to foretell anything other than a huge Gopher victory. My prediction: Minnesota 70 Wisconsin 64.

Talk about the game on our Gopher Basketball message board.