Preview: Gophers vs. UNC Greensboro

Big Ten season is just 11 days away, and fans are starting to get a little bit antsy. Each team has about 10 games under their belt, so we now have a little history on which to base conference predictions. Still, it can be difficult to gain much knowledge from lopsided scores (Illinois’ blowout of Wake Forest being a major exception) against opponents we don’t know much about.

That’s what makes comparisons against common opponents so interesting this time of year. Gopher fans got their first taste against Chicago State, who had previously played Illinois and Northwestern, and Minnesota came out looking pretty decent.

This Wednesday’s match-up against UNC Greensboro could be even more enlightening in that regard. The Spartans played at Wisconsin last Thursday and played in Iowa earlier this month (they also played at Duke). Based on those results, the Gophers will need another comfortable victory in order to keep their fans happy. The Badgers throttled Greensboro 85-53 (although it was only 29-22 at halftime), and Iowa dominated them 83-58 (and Duke one-upped them all, winning 98-44).

Still, I wouldn’t quite label this a cupcake game. The Spartans are picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the decent Southern Conference, and they have won the other seven games they’ve played – the most impressive of which was against Southern Miss on a neutral court. They have a trio of very talented players, but they’re lacking in size and experience, and they haven’t been able to find any consistent scoring threats from the perimeter.

Like most of the smaller schools Minnesota has played, a guard leads UNC Greensboro in scoring. After averaging just 5.5 points per game as a freshman last season, 6’3″ Ricky Hickman is up to 17.7 ppg this year. He only makes a third of his 5 three-point attempts per game, but he’s an all-around player with 4 assists, 3 rebounds, and 3 steals per game.

Unlike the other schools Minnesota has played though, the Spartans have a very impressive tandem of forwards. 6’8″, 215-lb Ronnie Burrell is arguably the best in the conference. He’s putting up 16 points and 8 rebounds per game (slightly above his 2003-04 numbers) and is shooting 53% from the field. He’s complemented by the season’s biggest surprise, 6’6″, 195-lb freshman Kyle Hines. Judging by the numbers, Hines is an athletic, do-everything player. 13 points, 9 rebounds, 4 blocks, 2 steals, and 57% shooting would be impressive for a senior; they’re tremendous for a freshman.

6’5″ senior forward Josh Gross (10 ppg, 5 rpg) and 5’9″ freshman point guard Dwayne Johnson (3 ppg, 3 apg) are the other players getting major minutes, and 6’4″ Kevin Olekslak (5 ppg), 6’0″ Ray Bristow (5 ppg), and 6’6″ Brian Beckford (2 ppg) see consistent time off the bench.

Here are my Gopher Keys of the Game:

1. Just Like Last Week. Last week against St. Francis, Minnesota began the game by getting the ball in to Jeff Hagen on the first 5 possessions. That set the tone and opened up the game, as the Red Flash had nobody who could stop him one on one. The same will likely be true for the Spartans, so the Gophers should again focus on getting the ball into the paint.

2. Pressure. UNC Greensboro has several underclassmen playing prominent roles and, not surprisingly, they’ve struggled with turnovers. Six Spartan players average at least two per game, and as a team they committed 20+ against both of their previous Big 10 opponents. The Gophers should apply some pressure and try to get double-digit points off turnovers. Minnesota also needs to focus on their turnovers though, as the Spartans do apply good defensive pressure. They forced Iowa into 21 turnovers and Wisconsin into 15, and they averaged 10 steals in those two games. Winning the turnover battle will be a key for the Gophers.

3. Own the Glass. Burrell and Hines put up good numbers, but beyond them UNC Greensboro is a very poor rebounding team. The Badgers smoked them on the boards 48-22 and had a 21-5 advantage on the offensive glass. Even in their win against Southern Miss, the Spartans were outrebounded 37-23 (and 12-5). They did manage to hang with Iowa on the boards, but the Hawkeyes’ undersized lineup doesn’t figure to put them at the top of the Big 10 rebounding stats. The Gophers should be able to dominate this statistic.

UNC Greensboro’s resume doesn’t look quite as good as I expected, but as Coach Monson has said many times, this year’s Gopher team can’t overlook any opponent. They could probably play a poor game and still get a win, but I would consider that to be a significant setback. The Gophers turned in their most complete performance of the season last week, and they need to keep moving forward from their if they’re going to have a chance to be a surprise team in the Big 10. My prediction: Minnesota 83 UNC Greensboro 65.

Talk about the game on our Gopher Basketball message board.