Preview: Gophers vs. Ohio State

If you like underdogs and overachievers, this is probably the game you’ve been waiting for. Both picked to finish in the bottom third of the conference (the Buckeyes #8 or #9, and the Gophers #10 or #11), Ohio State and Minnesota have been the two biggest success stories thus far in the season. But the night’s still young, as they say.

The Buckeyes are a solid 12-5 overall, but they’re just 1-2 in conference play, have lost 3 of their past 4 games, and really only have two “quality” wins on the season (Texas Tech and Iowa). Similarly, the Gophers might be 12-4 and 2-1 in Big Ten play, but those two wins came against the conference bottom-feeders, Nebraska is the closest thing they have to a “quality” win, and they’re coming off a loss and their worst offensive performance of the season. So in other words, both teams have yet to prove they’re legit.

Ohio State is probably the closer of the two in that regard. New head coach Thad Matta let’s people use that “new-look” buzzword when talking about them, and they have an exciting run-and-gun offense to keep the viewers tuned in. “Run-and-gun” (violence connotations aside) actually isn’t the best term to describe them, so I’m going to create a new one. Let’s go with “run-launch-bury-and-post”.

“Run” is obvious; the Buckeyes like to push the ball up the court. They’re loaded with guards and athletic wings, so that’s no surprise. “Launch” means they’ll pull up and shoot the ball from anywhere at anytime. A lot of teams do that these days. What sets Ohio State apart is the “bury” part. They may shoot the ball from anywhere, but nobody’s complaining, because they’re making a ton of them. The Buckeyes are leading the Big Ten at 42% as a team from 3-point range. Most impressively, they have 6 players shooting 40% or better, and they all have at least two attempts per game. Talk about making life tough on opposing defenses.

The other thing making defending the Buckeyes much tougher is the “post”; in other words, Terence Dials. The 6’9″, 260-lb junior is really Ohio State’s only post player, but he’s a good one. For the season, he’s averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds and is shooting 59% from the field. Basically, you either let him eat you up one-on-one inside, or you leave a deadly weapon open on the perimeter. Pick your poison.

The four primary outside weapons are 6’1″ senior Tony Stockman (bringing up the rear at 40%, but leading the group in attempts [7 per game] and scoring [14 ppg]), extremely athletic 6’5″ junior J.J. Sullinger (11 ppg, 5 rpg, 46% 3pt), athletic 6’8″ sophomore Ivan Harris (10 ppg, 46% 3pt), and 6’3″ junior Je’Kel Foster (8 ppg, 48% 3pt).

Ohio State also relies heavily on 6’1″ senior point guard Brandon Fuss-Cheatham. He’s never quite turned into the player Buckeye fans had hyped him up to be, but he is averaging a solid 6 points and 4 assists per game in his final season. 6’7″ junior Matt Sylvester is a skilled offensive player who averages 6 points and 17 minutes per game and is shooting 44% from 3-point range. 6’2″ freshman Jamar Butler is the other player who gets consistent minutes. His 2.4 assists in just 17 minutes per game are impressive, but he isn’t yet a major scoring threat and will have a hard time cracking the Buckeyes’ veteran backcourt rotation in conference play.

Here are my Gopher Keys of the Game:

1. Lessons Learned. While Minnesota has won 10 of its past 11 games, it’s the one loss that could prove the most beneficial. The inexperienced Gophers traveled to Iowa last weekend for their first Big Ten road game and just their second road game overall this season. And despite shooting just 33% from the field against a Top 25 team, they almost won. There are two major lessons to take away from that. First, defense and rebounding can keep you in games when the shots aren’t falling. Second, holes are a lot tougher to dig out of on the road. Had the Gophers started the two halves decently, we could very well be talking about their 11-game winning streak right now. They need to improve their consistency in Columbus in order to get the win.

2. Slow ’em Down. Ohio State scored 101 points against LSU last weekend, and they did it on the road. They shot 56% from the field and made more than half of their 34 three-point attempts. Granted, the game did go to double overtime, but that’s still a lot of offense. Put them in front of a home crowd, and they might have gone for 150. The thing to focus on, though, is that despite that amazing offensive performance, they lost. Their defense was lousy, and they got destroyed on the boards 43-23. If the Gophers can slow down the Ohio State offensive, they definitely have a chance. They need to limit transition opportunities (which means limit turnovers), and they need to make sure they contest perimeter shooters.

3. Stand Up Straight. While Dials is one of the best post players in the conference, the Gophers should have the overall advantage in the paint. Ohio State doesn’t have anybody with the size to guard Dan Coleman or Spencer Tollackson at the ‘4’ (assuming Dials is on Jeff Hagen in the middle), so Minnesota will need the two freshmen to have solid offensive games. Jeff should also continue his aggressive play inside. The Buckeyes can absolutely not afford to have Dials get in foul trouble, so there could be times when he has to play passive defense. The Gopher big men need to capitalize on that. On the other end of the court, they need to do their best to stay between Dials and the basket and try to keep him from getting too deep. If he gets the ball in low, it’s over; but if he has to face up from 10′ out, Minnesota will have a fighting chance.

I said Iowa was a game the Gophers had a chance to win, and it was. I feel the same way about Ohio State. The Buckeyes have weaknesses and are beatable. As is often the case, this game will likely hinge on shooting. I give Minnesota the edge in the other areas, so I think the Buckeyes are going to have to outshoot them in order to beat them. Unfortunately, they’ve been outshooting just about everybody this year. My prediction: Ohio State 72 Minnesota 68.

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