Preview: Gophers vs. Northwestern

Ok, time to get back to business. Sure, Minnesota manhandled Wisconsin on Saturday, but that’s in the past. The more games the Gophers win and the closer they get to the Big Dance, the more important each game becomes. So even though Wednesday night’s game is just against Northwestern, it’s now nearly as big of a game as the Badger game was.

And, in case you haven’t been paying attention the past couple of years, the Wildcats are now a formidable opponent rather than the creampuff they once were. They were picked to finish ahead of Minnesota by every preseason publication I’ve seen; they have wins over Indiana, Iowa, and Purdue; and they have a two-game winning streak against the Gophers (ugh). A tough nonconference schedule and rough start to Big Ten play has made the NIT Northwestern’s only shot at the postseason (they’re 3-6 in the Big Ten and 10-11 overall), but they’re still no creampuff.

The reasons for Northwestern’s recent improvement partly revolve around head coach Bill Carmody‘s disciplined system; it’s not easy to play against. The bigger cause, however, is what he’s done off the court. Namely, he’s started to bring in skilled and athletic players. Talent does make a difference.

Leading the way is 6’8″ junior Vedran Vukusic. An extremely skilled player for his size, Vukusic is averaging 17.3 points per game on the season and is third in the Big Ten at 18.3 ppg in conference play. He shoots 49% from the field, hits at 39% from three-point range (he attempts six 3s per game), grabs 4+ rebounds per game, and dishes out close to 2-1/2 assists. 6’8″ senior Davor Duvancic is a similarly skilled player, although he doesn’t have Vukusic’s 3-point range. He averages 8 points, 4 rebounds, and a team-high 2.8 assists and shoots 48% from the field.

The Wildcats also have a talented and experienced tandem in the backcourt. 6’2″ junior T.J. Parker is as quick as any point guard in the Big Ten and has stepped up his scoring a bit this season. He’s averaging 10 points and 2.5 assists and is shooting an impressive (for a point guard) 47% from the field. 6’4″ junior Mohamed Hachad doesn’t do any one thing great, but he does everything pretty darn well. His scoring is down a tad from last season, but he still has a solid line of 7 points and 4 rebounds and is shooting 47% from the field.

As you can see, the Wildcats returned a lot of experience from last season. In fact, only one of their top 11 players from a year ago was lost to graduation. Ironically though, it was the arrival of a couple of transfers that really had expectations high this season. The guy in the middle of the hype was 6’10”, 245-lb junior Michael Thompson. Being a former McDonald’s All-American and transferring from Duke garners some attention in Evanston. Thompson had to sit out the first semester and is still getting up to speed, but his 9 points and 4 rebounds per game have already made an impact.

The other transfer is 6’4″ sophomore Tim Doyle, who arrived from St. John’s. He’s averaging 5 points and 4 rebounds per game and hasn’t shot the ball all that well yet, but his 2.6 assists and all-around skills make him a perfect fit for Carmody’s system.

Northwestern’s bench does not go very deep, but 5’9″ senior Michael Jenkins (4 ppg) and 6’10” sophomore Vince Scott (2 ppg) get consistent minutes, and 6’3″ junior Evan Seacat (2 ppg) could also see some PT.

Here are my Gopher Keys of the Game:

1. You Know the Drill. Yep, Minnesota again needs to work the ball in to Jeff Hagen on a regular basis. Scott and Thompson are the only two Wildcats with any hope of contending with Jeff’s size and strength. With Scott being thin and far from a finished product, and with Thompson being questionable after having sat out Saturday with an ankle injury, the Gophers should run their offense through the big man as much as possible.

2. Controlled Pressure. Like Wisconsin, Northwestern has some trouble handling the ball against pressure defense. Unlike the Badgers (at least on Saturday) though, the Wildcats are very capable of making you pay if you overcommit or overreact on defense. They’ll back-door you or give-and-go you or have Vukusic drift out for an opponent 3-pointer. The Gophers need to pressure the ball (especially when it’s out of Parker’s hands), but they can’t get caught up in the excitement of the crowd and start swarming like they did a few times on Saturday. Northwestern is a team you want to pressure one-and-one while making sure the other four guys stay covered.

3. Just as Important. As I said in the opening paragraph, and as every single person reading this article already is well aware, the Gophers absolutely cannot overlook Northwestern and have a letdown. The Wildcats are not a bad team, and they thrive against teams who aren’t sharp and/or aren’t giving 100%. If the Gophers play with the intensity they had in their two big victories last week, they should be fine. Fortunately, this year’s team has been doing a good job of beating the teams they should beat without making things too interesting.

Northwestern is a solid team, and this should be an entertaining game, but I think Minnesota wins most of the match-ups. Dan Coleman might be the only Gopher who can physically stay with Vukusic, but I don’t see any Wildcat being able to contain Hagen or Vincent Grier for 40 minutes.

The Wildcats are last in the Big Ten in rebounding, so the Gophers should have an edge their (although they haven’t been rebounding all that well lately). The most interesting stat comparison is with field goal percentages. Northwestern is the #1 offense in the Big Ten (the Gophers are #9), while Minnesota is now the #1 defense (the Wildcats are last). Defense does win championships, and the Wildcats are 0-6 on the road, so I like the Gophers’ chances. I think the final margin will come down to who shoots the ball better from 3-point range. My prediction: Minnesota 72 Northwestern 59.

***Four more wins***

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