Preview: Gophers vs. Michigan State

Pop in the Rocky theme song and crank up the volume, because it’s go time!!! If you’re a Minnesota fan and you’re not fired up for Saturday afternoon, something’s wrong with you. This is what it’s all about. The Gophers are returning from a huge road victory, which upped their overall record to 13-4 and gave them a share of 2nd place in the Big Ten with a 3-1 record. Now in come the Michigan State Spartans, who are 11-3, ranked in the Top 20, and also 3-1 in conference play. If the Gophers can manage to sweep their two-game homestand, they would be 5-1 and possibly sitting atop the Big Ten standings. Bam!!!

Ok…deep breath…that’s looking too far ahead. The task at hand is daunting enough. The Spartans are considered by many to be the second-best team in the Big Ten (especially when it comes to talent), and the Gophers may find themselves without their second-best player (Jeff Hagen) on Saturday. That would leave Minnesota sorely lacking depth against a team that can cycle high school all-Americans on and off the court at a rapid pace.

The one limitation the Spartans have is the one they’ve been faced with for the past several years: their roster is very wing-heavy. With the exception of 6’10” junior Paul Davis in the middle, Michigan State’s primary six-man rotation consists entirely of wing players. That means somebody (it used to be 6’6″ senior Alan Anderson, and lately it’s been 6’3″ senior Chris Hill) gets forced to run the offense, and somebody else (likely either Anderson or 6’4″ senior Kelvin Torbert) has to defend the opposing team’s power forward.

That’s one of only two real weaknesses I can identify for the Spartans, however. The reason they’re in the Top 20 is that they have an amazingly balanced lineup of athletic scorers. Gopher fans like to look at Minnesota’s balance, with seven players averaging between 6 and 17 points per game. That’s nothing. Michigan State (if you round up Hill’s 9.7 ppg) has six players averaging in double figures, and their leader (6’5″ junior Maurice Ager) averages just 14 points per game. Anyone of those six (the one I haven’t mentioned yet is probably the most talented of all – 6’3″ sophomore Shannon Brown) can take over a game, and several of them are usually hot on any given night.

The only other significant weakness for Michigan State, which is surprising because of their recent recruiting prowess, is their lack of proven depth. 6’0″ freshman Drew Neitzel was a highly regarded point guard coming out of high school, but he’s struggled at the college level so far. He’s averaging 3 points and 3 assists (not too shabby), but he also turns the ball over twice in his 16 minutes of playing time each game (that kept him on the bench late in Sunday’s loss to Wisconsin). 6’6″, 230-lb tight end Matt Trannon gives them a physical defender and rebounder off the bench, but he’s not yet a major offensive threat. The same can be said for 6’8″ sophomore Delco Rowley. And 6’2″ senior Tim Bograkos, while he’s a solid player who doesn’t make mistakes, rarely gets enough minutes to be a difference maker.

Here are my Gopher Keys of the Game:

1. Out-Size Them or Out-Work Them. With a healthy Jeff Hagen, the Gophers would again have a big advantage inside, and they would surely again run the ball through the post on every possession like that did early at Ohio State. Even if Jeff’s sprained knee allows him to play on Saturday though, it’s probably not going to allow him to be very mobile, so Minnesota’s frontcourt advantage might not materialize (although freshmen Dan Coleman and Spencer Tollackson will hopefully give it a try). Without Hagen, the Gophers are simply going to have to out-hustle them. That might be tough to maintain for 40 minutes with a seven-man rotation, but that’s where the crowd comes in.

2. Keep ’em Off the Line. The Spartans can hurt you in a lot of ways. They have several good three-point shooters, they’re excellent in transition, and they use their athleticism and strength well on the offensive glass. Where they can really hurt you, though, is at the free throw line. Michigan State has five great slashers, and they’re all shooting 80% or better from the free throw line. Davis also draws a lot of fouls, and he’s been up and down at the line and is shooting just 61% on the season. Minnesota needs to make the Spartans work for their points and not give them freebies. Also, if the Gophers are going to have to go with seven-man rotation, they cannot afford any foul trouble.

3. Shoot the Rock. Now I’m going to state the obvious. The Gophers need to get back to shooting the ball well from the perimeter (and from close range). I’m not offering suggestions; I’m not giving reasons; they just need to do it. The open shots the Gophers have been missing in Big Ten play are no different than the open shots they were making in December and early January. They’re going to get hot again, and this would be a great time to do it. Once again, this key will be especially important if Hagen can’t give it a go.

Ok, I’m pumped up again. This would be a tremendous win, and while some people still seem to be trying to overlook Minnesota’s 13 victories and 3-1 conference record, there’s no way anybody could possibly downplay a win in this game (is there?). The Spartans have dominated good teams like Stanford, UCLA, and Northwestern, and their three losses have been close games against good teams on the road (including blowing an 8-point lead in the final minutes against Wisconsin on Sunday). The comforting thing for me is that I honestly believe the Gophers (at least with a healthy Hagen) have a better than average shot at winning this game. If Jeff isn’t able to play, hopefully there will be 14,625 people ready to fill in as the 8th man. My prediction: Minnesota 72 Michigan State 66.

Talk about the game on our Gopher Basketball message board.